老外Sunspot案例

或另一种复杂模型（预测sunspot用的）

import tensorflow as tf
print(tf.__version__)

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def plot_series(time, series, format="-", start=0, end=None):
    plt.plot(time[start:end], series[start:end], format)
    plt.xlabel("Time")
    plt.ylabel("Value")
    plt.grid(True)

!wget --no-check-certificate \
    https://storage.googleapis.com/laurencemoroney-blog.appspot.com/Sunspots.csv \
    -O /tmp/sunspots.csv
import csv
time_step = []
sunspots = []

with open('/tmp/sunspots.csv') as csvfile:
  reader = csv.reader(csvfile, delimiter=',')
  next(reader)
  for row in reader:
    sunspots.append(float(row[2]))
    time_step.append(int(row[0]))

series = np.array(sunspots)
time = np.array(time_step)
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time, series)


split_time = 3000
time_train = time[:split_time]
x_train = series[:split_time]
time_valid = time[split_time:]
x_valid = series[split_time:]

window_size = 30
batch_size = 32
shuffle_buffer_size = 1000

def windowed_dataset(series, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer):
  series = tf.expand_dims(series, axis=-1)
  dataset = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(series)
  dataset = dataset.window(window_size + 1, shift=1, drop_remainder=True)
  dataset = dataset.flat_map(lambda window: window.batch(window_size + 1))
  dataset = dataset.shuffle(shuffle_buffer).map(lambda window: (window[:-1], window[-1]))
  dataset = dataset.batch(batch_size).prefetch(1)
  return dataset


def model_forecast(model, series, window_size):
    ds = tf.data.Dataset.from_tensor_slices(series)
    ds = ds.window(window_size, shift=1, drop_remainder=True)
    ds = ds.flat_map(lambda w: w.batch(window_size))
    ds = ds.batch(32).prefetch(1)
    forecast = model.predict(ds)
    return forecast

tf.keras.backend.clear_session()
tf.random.set_seed(51)
np.random.seed(51)
window_size = 64
batch_size = 256
train_set = windowed_dataset(x_train, window_size, batch_size, shuffle_buffer_size)
print(train_set)
print(x_train.shape)

model = tf.keras.models.Sequential([
  tf.keras.layers.Conv1D(filters=32, kernel_size=5,
                      strides=1, padding="causal",
                      activation="relu",
                      input_shape=[None, 1]),
  tf.keras.layers.LSTM(64, return_sequences=True),
  tf.keras.layers.LSTM(64, return_sequences=True),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(30, activation="relu"),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu"),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(1),
  tf.keras.layers.Lambda(lambda x: x * 400)
])

lr_schedule = tf.keras.callbacks.LearningRateScheduler(
    lambda epoch: 1e-8 * 10**(epoch / 20))
optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=1e-8, momentum=0.9)
model.compile(loss=tf.keras.losses.Huber(),
              optimizer=optimizer,
              metrics=["mae"])
history = model.fit(train_set, epochs=100, callbacks=[lr_schedule])

plt.semilogx(history.history["lr"], history.history["loss"])
plt.axis([1e-8, 1e-4, 0, 60])

tf.keras.backend.clear_session()
tf.random.set_seed(51)
np.random.seed(51)
train_set = windowed_dataset(x_train, window_size=60, batch_size=100, shuffle_buffer=shuffle_buffer_size)
model = tf.keras.models.Sequential([
  tf.keras.layers.Conv1D(filters=60, kernel_size=5,
                      strides=1, padding="causal",
                      activation="relu",
                      input_shape=[None, 1]),
  tf.keras.layers.LSTM(60, return_sequences=True),
  tf.keras.layers.LSTM(60, return_sequences=True),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(30, activation="relu"),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(10, activation="relu"),
  tf.keras.layers.Dense(1),
  tf.keras.layers.Lambda(lambda x: x * 400)
])


optimizer = tf.keras.optimizers.SGD(lr=1e-5, momentum=0.9)
model.compile(loss=tf.keras.losses.Huber(),
              optimizer=optimizer,
              metrics=["mae"])
history = model.fit(train_set,epochs=500)

rnn_forecast = model_forecast(model, series[..., np.newaxis], window_size)
rnn_forecast = rnn_forecast[split_time - window_size:-1, -1, 0]
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time_valid, x_valid)
plot_series(time_valid, rnn_forecast)

tf.keras.metrics.mean_absolute_error(x_valid, rnn_forecast).numpy()

import matplotlib.image  as mpimg
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

#-----------------------------------------------------------
# Retrieve a list of list results on training and test data
# sets for each training epoch
#-----------------------------------------------------------
loss=history.history['loss']

epochs=range(len(loss)) # Get number of epochs


#------------------------------------------------
# Plot training and validation loss per epoch
#------------------------------------------------
plt.plot(epochs, loss, 'r')
plt.title('Training loss')
plt.xlabel("Epochs")
plt.ylabel("Loss")
plt.legend(["Loss"])

plt.figure()



zoomed_loss = loss[200:]
zoomed_epochs = range(200,500)


#------------------------------------------------
# Plot training and validation loss per epoch
#------------------------------------------------
plt.plot(zoomed_epochs, zoomed_loss, 'r')
plt.title('Training loss')
plt.xlabel("Epochs")
plt.ylabel("Loss")
plt.legend(["Loss"])

plt.figure()

print(rnn_forecast)