(AtCoder Beginner Contest 280) E - Critical Hit (经典的组合数学问题)

题意：

初始n，每次有$\frac{p}{100}$的概率减少2，$1-\frac{p}{100}$的概率减少1.
问最后n小于等于0的 期望步数。

思路：

$p2=\frac{p}{100}$: 减少2的概率
$p1=1-\frac{p}{100}$: 减少1的概率
$cnt1$: 枚举多少次减少了1
$cnt2=(n-cnt1+1)/2$ : 使用了多少次减少2

这里要分类讨论下：！！

1. $n-cnt1$为奇数，
   那么最后一步要是减少2才行！！！
   答案加上 ${(}_{cnt1}^{cnt1+cnt2-1})\ast p_1^{cnt1}\ast p_2^{cnt2}\ast (cnt1+cnt2)$
2. $n-cnt1$为偶数
   答案加上 ${(}_{cnt1}^{cnt1+cnt2})\ast p_1^{cnt1}\ast p_2^{cnt2}\ast (cnt1+cnt2)$

Java

package com.hgs.atcoder.abc.contest280.e;

/**
 * @author youtsuha
 * @version 1.0
 * Create by 2022/12/3 21:11
 */
import java.util.*;
import java.io.*;
public class Main {
    static FastScanner cin;
    static PrintWriter cout;
    static long mod = 998244353;
    static long frac[];
    static long invf[];


    static long qpow(long a, long k, long p){
        long res = 1;
        while(k > 0) {
            if(k % 2 == 1){
                res = res*a%p;
            }
            a = a*a%p;
            k >>= 1;
        }
        return res;
    }
    private static void init()throws IOException {
        cin = new FastScanner(System.in);
        cout = new PrintWriter(System.out);

        frac = new long[(int) (4e5+10)];
        invf = new long[(int) (4e5+10)];
        int mxInt = (int) 4e5;
        frac[0] = 1;
        for(int i = 1; i <= mxInt; i ++ ){
            frac[i] = frac[i-1]*i%mod;
        }

        invf[mxInt] = qpow(frac[mxInt], mod-2,mod);
        for(int i = mxInt - 1; i >= 0; i -- ) {
            invf[i] = invf[i+1]*(i+1)%mod;
        }
    }
    static long C(int a, int b){
        return frac[b]*invf[b-a]%mod*invf[a]%mod;
    }
    static long A(int a, int b){
        return frac[b]*invf[b-a]%mod;
    }
    private static void close(){
        cout.close();
    }
    private static void sol()throws IOException {
        int n = cin.nextInt(), p = cin.nextInt();
        //p/100 2
        // (1-p/100) 1

        long p2 = p*qpow(100,mod-2,mod)%mod, p1 = (1 - p2 + mod) % mod;
        long ans = 0;
        if(p1 == 0){
//            ans = qpow(p2,(n+1)/2,mod);
            cout.println((n+1)/2);
            return ;
        }
        if(p2 == 0){
//            ans = ;
            cout.println(n);
            return;
        }
        for(int c1 = 0; c1 <= n; c1 ++ ) {
            int rem = n - c1;
            int c2 = (n - c1 + 1)/2;

            int len = c1+c2;

            long pp1 = qpow(p1,c1,mod), pp2 = qpow(p2,c2,mod);
            if(rem % 2 == 0){
                //最后一步都可以
                long res = len*pp1%mod*pp2%mod*C(c1,len)%mod;
                ans = (ans + res) % mod;
            }else {
                //最后一步为2，变为-1
                long res = len*pp1%mod*pp2%mod*C(c1,len-1);
                ans = (ans + res)%mod;
            }


        }
        cout.println(ans);
    }
    public static void main(String[] args) throws IOException {
        init();
        sol();
        close();
    }
}
class FastScanner {
    BufferedReader br;
    StringTokenizer st = new StringTokenizer("");

    public FastScanner(InputStream s) {
        br = new BufferedReader(new InputStreamReader(s));
    }

    public FastScanner(String s) throws FileNotFoundException {
        br = new BufferedReader(new FileReader(new File(s)));
    }

    public String next() throws IOException {
        while (!st.hasMoreTokens()){
            try {
                st = new StringTokenizer(br.readLine());
            } catch (IOException e) { e.printStackTrace(); }
        }
        return st.nextToken();
    }

    public int nextInt() throws IOException {
        return Integer.parseInt(next());
    }

    public long nextLong() throws IOException {
        return Long.parseLong(next());
    }

    public double nextDouble() throws IOException {
        return Double.parseDouble(next());
    }
}