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下一个我们要有的基本意识
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就是要有竞争意识和概率意识
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首先要有竞争意识
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如果没有竞争意识
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这个人就不会有思考的
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这种意识,这种觉悟的
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8
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有人说,我这个项目是领导安排的
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不需要找客户什么之类的
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怎么可能
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领导安排的,你是不是可以随便乱做
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如果你随便乱做,你这个问题就不存在了
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你上这个课也没有必要了
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因为你日子过得很滋润
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问题是你就不能随便乱做的
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说明背后有竞争
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你随便乱做,领导不满意
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领导为什么不满意
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你要是时光倒流100年
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你有个计算器给领导用
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领导认为这个太神
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太高傲(高大上)了
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太高科技了
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100年以前突然来一个电子计算器
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都不用什么
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软件
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当时的人都觉得这个太牛了
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简直神仙的手段了
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为什么你现在搞一个,人家都不满意
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因为有比较,有竞争
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领导见得多了
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还有人,我做的是开源的,是免费的
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免费也要竞争的
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那么多免费的
37
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现在APP绝大多数是免费的
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39
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免费的,你都会去用吗
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没有
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那么多免费的,应用商店里面
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那么多都免费的
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你用的也是很少的
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也是要竞争的
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因为你虽然不给钱
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但对方怎么样
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付出了时间
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时间24小时,你用在这个App上
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你就没有办法用在那个APP上
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你装了快手,你刷快手,你就可能不刷抖音
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你刷了抖音,很可能就不刷微信视频号
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都是免费,不但免费,还有钱拿
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你现在刷视频,你刷抖音刷什么
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你不断刷,有个圈圈在那里转
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刷一个大概得几分钱
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在那里转,快手给的更多
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现在很多老人都刷这个来赚钱
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还给钱,但是给钱你就去用吗?
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还要比,哪个给钱给得多
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人家也会比的
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快手极速版给的就多
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抖音给的就小气了
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所以如果是为了赚钱
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快手就更好
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都会比较的
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即使给钱,人家也要挑的,要竞争
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但我们很多人就没有这种意识
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他经常把试错
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挂在嘴边
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说我要做一个,投入到市场试错
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你以为你爸是李刚
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市场包容你
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这种就很天真的,市场上有很多很多产品
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100个里面
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最终成功的就1个
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大部分是要被干掉的
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当然,作为外面的用户来说
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你放上来很多试错什么的,这个倒无所谓
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80
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但如果你是身在其中的一员
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你一旦错了
82
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你这个钱不是打水漂了吗
83
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就像我们拿角斗士来说
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斯巴达克斯,美剧
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你看,两个角斗士在场上拼杀
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旁边观众看得很激烈
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很开心
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如果发生这种冷门的
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比如说,一个比较弱的角斗士
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杀死比较强的角斗士
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观众看得更开心
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就像我们看世界杯一样
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冷门的淘汰热门的,太好看了
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是的
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我们作为观众
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观众就是奴隶主
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和当时的平民,奴隶主或者平民
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场上拼杀的是奴隶
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旁边的观众肯定很开心,冷门
100
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这个比正常的比赛看得还要有兴趣
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102
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但是,如果是场上比赛的球员
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场上比赛的角斗士
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那就很痛苦了
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你一旦错,就被对手干掉了
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哪有那么多机会让你试错
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那是观众才有这种心情
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角斗士在场上都是战战兢兢的
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一点错都不能,不敢犯的
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我们是角斗士,是奴隶,不是奴隶主
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但很多人,他明明自己是场上的奴隶
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他却有一种自己是奴隶主这种感觉
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这种不知道天高地厚了
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要有这种意识,竞争意识
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第二个就是概率意识
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就是说,不要把个例
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当成普遍的
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我们要有概率的意识
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会有人说
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上清华北大也没什么了不起
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你看某某有个初中生
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当老板,清华北大的给他打工,有没有
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肯定有的
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老板是初中生,然后员工是清华北大,有的
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问题是这种概率有多少
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概率就使得我们就有一种什么
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就是说,实际上跟竞争是一样的
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它是比概率的大小
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但是不排除有特例
131
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比如说,为什么这样做
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因为这样做,得到正确结果的概率更大一点
133
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但有可能在某些特例情况下
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你那样做,可能也瞎猫撞死耗子也有的
135
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但概率就小
136
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所以经常有人说,你看,人家就瞎做
137
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人家公司也成功了
138
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是的,有存在的
139
00:07:10,910 --> 00:07:13,460
但是,你要看概率是多少
140
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但很多人就拿这个,没有这种概率意识
141
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经常就会犯这种错误了
142
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就把特例当成什么
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当成普遍的案例
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他随便找一个特例就把正常规律给驳倒了
145
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第二个就有这种什么
146
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,890
如果没有这种思想
147
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他就会有一个极端的
148
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两个极端上徘徊
149
00:07:46,910 --> 00:07:48,180
如果考不了满分
150
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那就跟0分没有什么区别
151
00:07:52,530 --> 00:07:54,090
发展到最后,就是什么
152
00:07:54,100 --> 00:07:56,600
就是说,你想那么多
153
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难道你答案一定是对的吗
154
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当然,谁也不敢打保票
155
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一定对
156
00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:05,070
既然你也不一定对
157
00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,830
我也不一定对,我们两个不一样的嘛
158
00:08:10,570 --> 00:08:11,900
就像你一个学霸
159
00:08:12,180 --> 00:08:13,160
你说你学霸你厉害
160
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你保证能考100分吗
161
00:08:15,180 --> 00:08:16,190
能考满分吗
162
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:17,630
不能吧
163
00:08:18,390 --> 00:08:20,260
你也不能保证考满分
164
00:08:20,270 --> 00:08:22,380
我也不能保证,我们两个平等了
165
00:08:22,950 --> 00:08:23,240
166
00:08:24,150 --> 00:08:26,660
没有这种概率的思想
167
00:08:30,550 --> 00:08:34,220
所以我们要有这种意识
168
00:08:34,350 --> 00:08:35,660
竞争和概率意识
169
00:08:36,950 --> 00:08:38,960
我们去思考的目的
170
00:08:38,970 --> 00:08:41,030
是比竞争对手多一点点概率
171
00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:42,050
成功
172
00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:46,790
我们是和竞争对手比
173
00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,630
不是和满分比,也不是和0分比
174
00:08:51,380 --> 00:08:53,740
所以这里面就有两种心理要警惕的
175
00:08:53,750 --> 00:08:57,980
一种心理是自卑的心理,就觉得无法推理
176
00:08:59,250 --> 00:09:00,210
比如说,让他做需求
177
00:09:00,220 --> 00:09:04,100
他说这个做需求怎么可能做完美
178
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,220
实际上就是说,怎么能拿满分呢
179
00:09:09,890 --> 00:09:11,570
既然不能拿满分,我就不做了
180
00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:13,040
你看,既然不能拿满分
181
00:09:13,050 --> 00:09:15,680
那就跟0分,没有什么区别,就不做了
182
00:09:15,690 --> 00:09:16,230
不是这样的
183
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:18,110
我们只要拿60分
184
00:09:18,690 --> 00:09:19,400
也比什么
185
00:09:19,810 --> 00:09:21,950
50分钟要大,就像这个一样
186
00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,380
假设我出西风,点炮概率30%
187
00:09:26,390 --> 00:09:29,470
出这个白板,20%,可以算的
188
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:31,970
那就要出西风
189
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,240
虽然偶尔某一盘可能是什么
190
00:09:36,250 --> 00:09:39,820
某一把可能就输掉了
191
00:09:40,110 --> 00:09:44,380
但你一个晚上你不断按照规则去做
192
00:09:44,390 --> 00:09:48,060
一个晚上你赢钱的概率就很高了
193
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,220
并不是说老鸟把把都赢,不是这样
194
00:09:53,230 --> 00:09:54,940
老鸟赢个7成就够了
195
00:09:55,550 --> 00:09:57,300
他按照他这个规律去做
196
00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,580
偶尔也会输
197
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,230
但他不断地做
198
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,870
那么一个晚上下来,钱就赢掉了
199
00:10:05,540 --> 00:10:07,380
菜鸟可能偶尔沾沾自喜
200
00:10:07,550 --> 00:10:09,050
你看,我随便乱打
201
00:10:09,060 --> 00:10:12,860
有时候也胡,你概率是多少
202
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:16,840
自卑心理,无法推理
203
00:10:17,530 --> 00:10:18,840
自大心理,就无需推理
204
00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,500
就是刚才我们讲的,试错这种
205
00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:24,630
那就是一种自大的心理
206
00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,910
以为我爸是李刚,怎么搞都可以
207
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:28,870
不是这样的