[图解]领域驱动设计伪创新-为什么互联网是重灾区-02

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我们并没有说，微信或者是美团用了领域驱动设计

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没有做这个暗示

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我只是说什么

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针对用户量很大的系统

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要加一个功能

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或加点什么逻辑的话

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它往往是非常非常谨慎的

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今天我们继续来说一下

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领域驱动设计伪创新

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为什么互联网是重灾区

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的第二个问题

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并存

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不等于因果

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很多互联网的建模经验是没有价值的

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那什么是

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并存不等于因果

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这是一个常见的逻辑谬误了

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把并存当成因果

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我们举个例子

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比如说

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醉汉买彩票

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比如说，张三

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喝酒喝醉了

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去买彩票

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结果一开奖

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中奖一个小目标

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当然，我们那个福彩体彩应该没那么多了

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我们就假设吧

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然后大家就请张三上台介绍中奖的经验

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张三就说了

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那天我喝酒

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喝得醉醺醺的

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去买彩票

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然后就中奖了

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大家就纷纷地就喝酒

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然后去买彩票

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以为这样就中大奖

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其实不是的

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那这里面

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就有一个逻辑谬误

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就是说

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把并存

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当成了因果

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张三喝醉酒去买彩票

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这个是事实

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张三中大奖也是事实

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但是这两者之间并没有因果关系

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张三的中奖

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有没有原因

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这个原因

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是什么样的原因

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应该是有的

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但这个原因太复杂了

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我们抛除作弊来说

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完全随机的

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实际上背后也有原因

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只不过原因是什么

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它可能由

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一万个参数

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来决定

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需要用非常复杂的计算

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你可以称为上帝算法

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才能算出来到底是

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这一期六合彩

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这一期双色球是什么号

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肯定是理由的

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就说双色球摇号那个

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为什么是这个号

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肯定有原因的

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原因就是背后的物理学嘛

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对吧

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球的大小、球的位置

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当时空气流动的速率、温度

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等等等等

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压力等等

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对吧

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最后造成了最终是这个球出来

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问题是这个

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太麻烦了

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对不对

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你要找这个原因

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太难了

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太麻烦了

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所以呢

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很多人喜欢找比较容易找的原因

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比如说，张三那天喝醉酒了

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买彩票

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所以呢，他中奖了

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他就把这个原因归因到

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比较容易找的

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一个现象

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球赛里面，两支球队在那里比赛

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比如说，利物浦对曼城

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对吧

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结果呢

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利物浦赢了

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那为什么利物浦这一场比赛能赢

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理由是什么，原因是什么

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肯定是背后的

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技术、战术问题

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球员的当前的心理状态

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体力的状态，等等的问题

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但这些问题太复杂了

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可能克洛普或者是瓜迪奥拉自己心里清楚

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但作为一个普通的观众

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你要让他去

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剖析这个，太难了

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那怎么办呢

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他就把它归因到比较容易的地方

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比如说

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今天呢，他们是穿蓝色球衣的

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所以呢，他就赢了

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归因到球队

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穿的衣服的颜色

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还有，教练穿什么内裤

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球员在更衣室里面是站着开会

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还是坐着开会

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球员洗澡是结对洗澡还是单个人洗澡

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对吧

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他就把这个原因

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归因到这些比较容易理解的，显而易见的这个上面

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这就是错误的归因

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其他的还有了

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比尔盖茨退学成了世界首富

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马云没考上清华北大

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也是首富

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王思聪喜欢玩游戏

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王思聪

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你看，年纪轻轻就这么有钱

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对吧

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这都是的

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把并存当成因果

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那我们这个

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互联网体会跟这个有什么关系呢

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就是我们

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这些年经常可以听到这样一种言论

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我们现在很多讲坛被互联网的开发人员占据

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比如说，你去开一些什么技术大会什么之类的

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上台讲的

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很多很多互联网公司的

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有的上去就讲，我们怎么开发我们系统的

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我们怎么开发我们这个网站的

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讲一个多小时

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结果

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台下一听

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哎

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这不就是拍脑袋吗

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对不对

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当然，他叫敏捷开发了

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但你不服不行

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人家这样拍脑袋

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人家网站上市了

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而且已经开始盈利了

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对不对

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或者说，你去访问一些

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互联网公司开发人员

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你平时UML这些

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你们用不用

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他说

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不用

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如果说，他不用UML

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他用别的也行

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但他实际上

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别的也不用

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直接就是代码

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好像也行

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而且网站还搞得挺大

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对吧

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问题在哪里

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就在于我们前面讲的那个道理

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我们上一个视频也说过

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有一些这种互联网公司怎么样

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特点是什么

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用的人很多

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但是呢，系统很简单

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他在竞争中的成败关键

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并不在系统怎么开发的

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而在于什么

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盘外招

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你有没有钱去烧

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你有没有背后的背景的知识

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这个才是关键的

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你是站着开发

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趴着开发

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躺着开发

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无所谓

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并不影响成败

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所以呢

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既然趴着开发也行

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拍脑袋开发也行

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怎么做都行

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那我何必

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自找麻烦呢

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对不对

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我拍脑袋就可以了

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对吧