-
ARIMA -> SARIMA -> SARIMAX:
S是Seasonal,就是季节性、周期性的意思
X是eXogenous,外部信息的意思 -
季节性参数:
P:季节性自回归阶数。
D:季节性差分阶数。
Q:季节性移动平均阶数。
m:单个季节期间的时间步数。
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pylab as pl
import seaborn as sns
%matplotlib inline
sns.set(style = 'ticks', context = 'poster')
pd.set_option('display.float_format', lambda x: '%.5f' % x)
np.set_printoptions(precision = 5, suppress = True)
filename_ts = 'data/series1.csv'
ts_df = pd.read_csv(filename_ts, index_col = 0, parse_dates = [0])
n_sample = ts_df.shape[0]
print(ts_df.shape)
ts_df.head(6)
# 训练集和测试集
n_train = int(0.95 * n_sample) + 1
n_test = n_sample - n_train
ts_train = ts_df.iloc[:n_train]['value']
ts_test = ts_df.iloc[n_train:]['value']
print(ts_train.shape)
print(ts_test.shape)
print('Training Series:', '\n&#