跟《经济学人》学英文：2024年08月03日这期 Investors beware: summer madness is here

Investors beware: summer madness is here

This year’s hottest months are shaping up to be especially wild

shaping up: 看起来，逐渐变成

• Shaping up：这个短语的意思是逐渐形成或变得某种样子。在这个上下文中，指的是今年最热的几个月看起来将会特别狂野或极端。

例子：The project is shaping up to be a major success. (这个项目看起来会是一个巨大的成功。)

原文：

So much of finance is automated these days you can forget quite how

strongly markets echo human rhythms. Yet stock exchanges still ring their

opening and closing bells at either end of the working day designed a

century ago in Henry Ford’s car factory; the more civilised of them even

break for an hour at lunch. The foreign-exchange market notionally operates

around the clock, but it is a brave soul who attempts a big order during

London’s early hours, before the City is open for business. And it is not just

daily routines that matter—seasonal ones do, too. Spare a thought, then, for

the 20-somethings left to run the northern hemisphere’s trading desks over

the next few weeks, while their bosses doze on a beach.

如今，金融自动化程度如此之高，以至于你都忘了市场对人类节奏的反应有多强烈。然而，股票交易所仍然在一个世纪前在亨利·福特的汽车工厂设计的工作日开始或结束时敲响开市和收盘的钟声；他们中更有教养的人甚至会在午餐时休息一个小时。外汇市场名义上是24小时运作的，但只有勇敢的人才会在伦敦开盘前的几个小时里尝试大笔交易。不仅仅是日常事务很重要，季节性事务也很重要。那么，想想那些20多岁的年轻人吧，他们将在未来几周掌管北半球的交易部门，而他们的老板却在沙滩上打盹。

学习：

rhythms：美 [ˈrɪðəmz] 节奏；韵律；规律；节律；（rhythm的复数）

• Echo rhythms: 反映或模仿人类的节奏。在这里指的是金融市场在时间安排上依然遵循人类的工作和生活节奏。

例子：The financial markets echo the rhythms of human activity. (金融市场反映了人类活动的节奏。)

working day：工作日

notionally：假设地; 理论上

around the clock： 全天候；昼夜不停；连续不断；二十四小时不间断

doze：美 [doʊz] 打盹；打盹儿；打瞌睡

either end: 工作日的开始和结束

• Either end: 两端。在这里指的是工作日的开始和结束时段。

例子：The store is open at either end of the day. (商店在一天的两端开放。)

brave soul：勇敢的人

• Brave soul: 勇敢的人。在这里指敢于在伦敦早晨交易时段进行大额订单的人。

例子：It takes a brave soul to venture into the unknown. (需要一个勇敢的人去探索未知。)

spare a thought: 想到xxx

• Spare a thought: 想到或同情某人。在这里指在意那些年轻人，他们在夏季负责交易工作，而他们的上司在海滩上休息。

例子：Spare a thought for those who have to work during the holidays. (想到那些在假期里不得不工作的人。)

20-somethings: 二十多岁的人

• 20-somethings: 二十多岁的人。在这里指在交易台工作的一群年轻人。

例子：The company is full of energetic 20-somethings. (这家公司充满了充满活力的二十多岁的人。)

原文：

Possibly for this reason, markets are often more jittery than usual during the

summer months. Last year, for example, it was in August that American

share prices began their final protracted fall before a storming bull run that

took them to new all-time highs. That may be down to liquidity, which, with

many investors also off reclining in the sun, tends to be slightly thinner

during the holiday season than in the rest of the year. It may also be that the

lack of veterans on banks’ trading floors allows panic to set in more easily.

Prices can swing a lot further before someone musters the courage to push

back.

可能是因为这个原因，在夏季的几个月里，市场往往比平时更加紧张。例如，去年8月，美国股票价格开始了最后一次持续下跌，随后一轮强劲的牛市将它们带到了历史新高。这可能归因于流动性，由于许多投资者也在阳光下休息，流动性在假期期间往往比一年中的其他时间略少。也可能是因为银行交易大厅缺乏老手，使得恐慌更容易发生。在有人鼓起勇气反击之前，价格可能会进一步波动。

学习：

jittery：美 ['dʒɪtərɪ] 紧张不安的；战战兢兢的

protracted：美 [prəˈtræktəd] 持久的；长期的；拖延的；

storming：非常精彩的；非常感人的；极好的

all-time：（用于比较或表示好坏程度）空前的；史无前例的

be down to：因为；归因于；可归因于

liquidity：流动性

• Liquidity: 流动性。用"thin"形容是可以的，表示流动性较低或不足。

例子：During the holiday season, market liquidity tends to be thin. (在假期期间，市场流动性往往较低。)

reclining：美 [rɪˈklaɪnɪŋ] 斜倚；倚靠；（recline的现在分词）

off reclining: 去度假

• Off reclining: 去度假或休息。在这里指的是许多投资者在假期期间去休息。

例子：Many investors are off reclining during the summer months. (许多投资者在夏季去度假。)

如果去掉"off"，句子意思仍然通顺，但不如"off reclining"那么形象生动，"off reclining"更具体地描述了休息和度假的状态。

holiday season：节假日时段；假日季节；假期季节

swing：摆动；摇荡；

bull run: 牛市

• Bull run: 牛市。在这里指的是股票价格持续上涨的时期。

例子：The stock market experienced a bull run last year. (去年股市经历了一个牛市。)

trading floors: 交易大厅

• Trading floors: 交易大厅。在这里指的是银行和金融机构进行交易的地方。

例子：The trading floors were unusually quiet during the holidays. (假期期间交易大厅异常安静。)

set in: 开始或产生

• Set in: 开始或产生。在这里指的是恐慌开始蔓延。

例子：As the crisis deepened, panic began to set in. (随着危机加深，恐慌开始蔓延。)

muster the courage： 鼓起勇气

• Muster the courage: 鼓起勇气。在这里指的是有人鼓起勇气采取行动。

例子：It took some time before anyone mustered the courage to intervene. (花了一些时间才有人鼓起勇气进行干预。)

原文：

This summer has already tested nerves. After months of rising at a

breakneck pace, stockmarkets around the world have been knocked off-

kilter. On July 24th America’s benchmark S&P 500 index had its worst

session since December 2022, falling by 2.3%. Equities elsewhere followed

suit the next day. Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, the VIX index, which measures

expected stockmarket volatility through the prices traders pay to protect

themselves from it, has leapt up after months in the doldrums. Meanwhile,

the Japanese yen, an erstwhile safe-haven currency, has rallied at close to its

fastest rate in two decades. It is almost enough to rouse a senior trader from

his sunbed.

这个夏天已经很让人紧张。在经历了几个月的飞速上涨后，世界各地的股票市场已经失去了平衡。7月24日，美国基准标准普尔500指数经历了自2022年12月以来最糟糕的一个交易日，下跌了2.3%。第二天，其它地方的股市也纷纷效仿。华尔街的“恐惧指标”，VIX指数，通过交易者为保护自己免受股票波动而支付的价格来衡量预期的股票市场波动，在经历了几个月的低迷后，已经大幅上升。与此同时，昔日的避险货币日元以近20年来最快的速度升值。这几乎足以把一个资深交易员从日光浴床上唤醒。

学习：

test nerves: 让人紧张

• Test nerves: 让人紧张或焦虑。在这里指的是市场状况让投资者感到紧张。

例子：The volatile market tested the nerves of even the most seasoned investors. (波动的市场让即使是最有经验的投资者也感到紧张。)

breakneck：极速的；危险的；鲁莽的；冒险的

at a breakneck pace：以很快的速度

kilter： 美 [ˈkɪltər] 不和谐；失衡

off-kilter:失调

knock off-kilter：打乱平衡

• Knocked off-kilter: 打乱平衡。在这里指的是股票市场的快速下跌使市场失去了稳定。

例子：The sudden announcement knocked the entire plan off-kilter. (突如其来的公告打乱了整个计划。)

gauge：美 [ɡeɪdʒ] 标准量度；标准规格；（测量或判断的）尺度；依据；标准； 注意发音

volatility ：美 [ˌvɑːləˈtɪləti] 挥发度；反复无常

leapt：美 [lept] 跳；（leap的过去式和过去分词）

leap up：快速上涨

• Leap up: 快速上涨。在这里指的是VIX指数迅速上升。

例子：The stock price leapt up after the company announced its quarterly earnings. (公司公布季度收益后，股票价格迅速上涨。)

doldrums：美 [ˈdoʊldrəmz] 停滞；萧条状态；萧条时期；

erstwhile：美 [ˈərstˌ(h)waɪl] 从前的；往昔的；以往的

safe-haven：避险天堂

rally：回升（指股市或价格）

senior trader：资深交易员

sunbed：日光浴床；日光浴椅；人工日晒床

session：交易时段

• Session: 交易时段。在这里指的是某一天的交易活动。

例子：The stock had a good session, rising by 5% in a day. (这只股票有一个好的交易时段，一天内上涨了5%。)

follow suit：跟随

• Follow suit: 跟随。在这里指的是其他市场在美国股市下跌后也出现了下跌。

例子：When the leading firm reduced prices, others in the industry quickly followed suit. (当龙头企业降价时，行业中的其他公司迅速跟随。)

原文：

What is more, the rumpus may be only getting started. One reason is that

stockmarkets have become eye-poppingly concentrated. America’s now

constitutes nearly two-thirds of global equity value, and increasingly

revolves around the fortunes of a small cluster of firms. The S&P 500’s big

drop came just after Alphabet and Tesla reported their second-quarter

earnings, and days before Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft were due to

follow suit. In other words, a handful of tech giants worth a collective

$11trn, or a quarter of the S&P 500’s total value, released their earnings in a

little over a week. So much hinges on investors’ attitudes towards such

companies that it is easy to envisage further ructions ahead.

更重要的是，喧闹可能才刚刚开始。一个原因是股票市场变得异常集中。美国现在占全球股票价值的近三分之二，并越来越多地围绕着一小群公司的财富。就在Alphabet和特斯拉公布第二季度收益后，标准普尔500指数股价大幅下跌，而在几天前，亚马逊、苹果、Meta和微软也将紧随其后。换句话说，一些科技巨头在一周多一点的时间里发布了他们的收益，这些巨头的总价值为11万亿美元，占标准普尔500总价值的四分之一。这在很大程度上取决于投资者对这些公司的态度，因此很容易想象未来会出现更多的骚动。

学习：

rumpus：美 [ˈrəmpəs] 喧闹；骚乱；吵嚷；

• Rumpus: 喧闹，混乱。在这里指的是市场的动荡和不稳定。

例子：The announcement caused a rumpus among the shareholders. (这项公告在股东中引起了喧闹。)

eye-poppingly：让人瞠目结舌地

• Eye-poppingly: 令人瞠目结舌地，非常惊人地。在这里形容股票市场的高度集中。

例子：The price of the new luxury car was eye-poppingly high. (这辆新豪车的价格令人瞠目结舌地高。)

envisage：美 [ɪnˈvɪzɪdʒ] 设想；想象；预见；

ructions：愤怒的抗议；争吵；（ruction的复数）

• Ructions: 争吵，动荡。在这里指的是可能发生的市场波动和不稳定。

例子：The unexpected change in policy caused ructions in the financial markets. (政策的意外变化在金融市场引起了动荡。)

hinge on: 取决于

• Hinges: 取决于。在这里指的是市场对这些大公司的态度决定了未来的动荡。

例子：The success of the project hinges on securing adequate funding. (项目的成功取决于获得足够的资金。)

原文:

At the same time, those attitudes appear to be shifting from euphoria to

something a little more mercurial. The share price of Nvidia, the darling of

the previous bull run, has fallen by 14% since a peak in June, while gyrating

madly along the way. On July 30th it plunged by 7%, then rocketed by 13%

on July 31st. Alphabet lost 5% of its market value the day after its earnings

report, despite beating analysts’ revenue expectations. Tesla’s results, which

undershot expectations, led to a one-day drop of 12%.

与此同时，这些态度似乎正从兴奋转向更为多变的状态。前一轮牛市的宠儿Nvidia的股价自6月份的峰值以来已经下跌了14%,同时一路狂飙。7月30日，股价暴跌7%，然后在7月31日飙升13%。Alphabet在财报发布后的第二天就损失了5%的市值，尽管超出了分析师的收入预期。特斯拉的业绩低于预期，导致单日下跌12%。

学习：

euphoria：美 [juːˈfɔːriə] 极度兴奋；

mercurial：美 [ˌmərˈkjʊriəl] 多变的

gyrating：美 ['dʒaɪretɪŋ] 旋转；（gyrate的现在分词）

• Gyrating: 快速旋转或波动。在这里用来形容Nvidia股价剧烈的波动。

例子：The dance floor was filled with people gyrating to the music. (舞池里的人们随着音乐快速旋转。)

在这个上下文中，“gyrating”描述了Nvidia股价在短时间内剧烈的起伏和波动。

undershoot：未达到；

undershoot expectations：未达预期

原文：

Such big moves are not solely down to jumpy traders. They are also a result

of the extreme positions investors have taken. Analysts at the Royal Bank of

Canada note that asset managers have bet more aggressively on futures

contracts linked to the NASDAQ 100, an index dominated by big-tech firms, than

at almost any other time in the past. With these bets already placed, few

buyers remain to take prices higher; any change in sentiment can trigger a

crash. And it is not just the tech giants. Positioning in S&P 500 futures, as

well as those for America’s stockmarket more broadly, is more bullish—and

hence more vulnerable to a reversal—than it has been since the Royal Bank

of Canada began tracking it in 2010.

如此大的波动不仅仅是因为紧张的交易者。它们也是投资者采取极端立场的结果。加拿大皇家银行的分析师指出，资产管理公司比以往任何时候都更积极地押注与纳斯达克100指数相关的期货合约，该指数由大型科技公司主导。由于这些赌注已经下了，很少有买家愿意接受更高的价格；情绪的任何变化都可能引发崩盘。不仅仅是科技巨头。自从加拿大皇家银行在2010年开始跟踪标准普尔500期货，以及更广泛的美国股票市场以来，它的定位更加乐观——因此更容易受到反转的影响。

学习：

jumpy：英 [ˈdʒʌmpi] 焦躁的；紧张的；易受惊的；不安的

future：期货

原文：

The consequence is that an awful lot rides on how quickly the Federal

Reserve can cut rates, giving earnings a boost that has already been priced

in. Following the rate-setters’ latest get-together on July 31st, such a move

seems imminent. “A reduction…could be on the table as soon as the next

meeting in September,” said Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman. Even this,

though, was already seen by investors as a sure thing. Any news suggesting

it might not be, or that further cuts might not swiftly follow, would be just

the sort of catalyst to make an already wild summer wilder still.

其结果是，美联储能多快降息变得非常关键，因为这将会推动收益增长，而这种增长已经被市场预期在内。根据7月31日利率决策者的最新会议，这种举措似乎迫在眉睫。“降息……最早可能在下次9月的会议上被讨论，”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔说道。然而，投资者已经将此视为板上钉钉的事情。任何暗示这可能不会发生的消息，或者进一步降息可能不会迅速跟进的消息，都会成为让这个本已动荡的夏天更加动荡的催化剂。

学习：

an awful lot：很多；非常多

这里的 “ride” 是一种比喻，指的是某事物的重要性或依赖性。句中的 “an awful lot rides on” 意味着 “有很多东西依赖于” 或 “很多事情取决于”。整体意思是：有很多东西取决于联邦储备局多快能够降息。

后记

2024年8月9日20点07分于上海。