动态贝叶斯网络DBN

贝叶斯网络是一种图形模型,用于描述数据变量间的依赖关系,常用于推理。DBN(动态贝叶斯网络)适用于处理随时间变化的数据,其网络结构在每个时间片保持相同,仅与相邻时间片相关联。动态贝叶斯网络在不确定性推理、数据处理和分类中有广泛应用。
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贝叶斯网络

贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Networks)也被称为信念网络(Belif Networks)或者因果网络(Causal Networks),是描述数据变量之间依赖关系的一种图形模式,是一种用来进行推理的模型。贝叶斯网络为人们提供了一种方便的框架结构来表示因果关系,这使得不确定性推理变得在逻辑上更为清晰、可理解性强。对于贝叶斯网络,我们可以用两种方法来看待它:首先贝叶斯网表达了各个节点间的条件独立关系,我们可以直观的从贝叶斯网当中得出属性间的条件独立以及依赖关系;另外可以认为贝叶斯网用另一种形式表示出了事件的联合概率分布,根据贝叶斯网的网络结构以及条件概率表(CPT)我们可以快速得到每个基本事件(所有属性值的一个组合)的概率。贝叶斯学习理论利用先验知识和样本数据来获得对未知样本的估计,而概率(包括联合概率和条件概率)是先验信息和样本数据信息在贝叶斯学习理论当中的表现形式。
贝叶斯网络由以下两部分组成:

一 贝叶斯网络结构
贝叶斯网的网络结构是一个有向无环图(Directed Acyclic Graph),其中每个结点代表一个属性或者数据变量,结点间的弧代表属性(数据变量) 间的概率依赖关系。一条弧由一个属性(数据变量)A指向另外一个属性(数据变量)B说明属性A的取值可以对属性B的取值产生影响,由于是有向无环图,A、B间不会出现有向回路。在贝叶斯网当中,直接的原因结点(弧尾)A叫做其结果结点&#x

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用python写的一段贝叶斯网络的程序 This file describes a Bayes Net Toolkit that we will refer to now as BNT. This version is 0.1. Let's consider this code an "alpha" version that contains some useful functionality, but is not complete, and is not a ready-to-use "application". The purpose of the toolkit is to facilitate creating experimental Bayes nets that analyze sequences of events. The toolkit provides code to help with the following: (a) creating Bayes nets. There are three classes of nodes defined, and to construct a Bayes net, you can write code that calls the constructors of these classes, and then you can create links among them. (b) displaying Bayes nets. There is code to create new windows and to draw Bayes nets in them. This includes drawing the nodes, the arcs, the labels, and various properties of nodes. (c) propagating a-posteriori probabilities. When one node's probability changes, the posterior probabilities of nodes downstream from it may need to change, too, depending on firing thresholds, etc. There is code in the toolkit to support that. (d) simulating events ("playing" event sequences) and having the Bayes net respond to them. This functionality is split over several files. Here are the files and the functionality that they represent. BayesNetNode.py: class definition for the basic node in a Bayes net. BayesUpdating.py: computing the a-posteriori probability of a node given the probabilities of its parents. InputNode.py: class definition for "input nodes". InputNode is a subclass of BayesNetNode. Input nodes have special features that allow them to recognize evidence items (using regular-expression pattern matching of the string descriptions of events). OutputNode.py: class definition for "output nodes". OutputBode is a subclass of BayesNetNode. An output node can have a list of actions to be performed when the node's posterior probability exceeds a threshold ReadWriteSigmaFiles.py: Functionality for loading and saving Bayes nets in an XML format. SampleNets.py: Some code that constructs a sample Bayes net. This is called when SIGMAEditor.py is started up. SIGMAEditor.py: A main program that can be turned into an experimental application by adding menus, more code, etc. It has some facilities already for loading event sequence files and playing them. sample-event-file.txt: A sequence of events that exemplifies the format for these events. gma-mona.igm: A sample Bayes net in the form of an XML file. The SIGMAEditor program can read this type of file. Here are some limitations of the toolkit as of 23 February 2009: 1. Users cannot yet edit Bayes nets directly in the SIGMAEditor. Code has to be written to create new Bayes nets, at this time. 2. If you select the File menu's option to load a new Bayes net file, you get a fixed example: gma-mona.igm. This should be changed in the future to bring up a file dialog box so that the user can select the file. 3. When you "run" an event sequence in the SIGMAEditor, the program will present each event to each input node and find out if the input node's filter matches the evidence. If it does match, that fact is printed to standard output, but nothing else is done. What should then happen is that the node's probability is updated according to its response method, and if the new probability exceeds the node's threshold, then its successor ("children") get their probabilities updated, too. 4. No animation of the Bayes net is performed when an event sequence is run. Ideally, the diagram would be updated dynamically to show the activity, especially when posterior probabilities of nodes change and thresholds are exceeded. To use the BNT, do three kinds of development: A. create your own Bayes net whose input nodes correspond to pieces of evidence that might be presented and that might be relevant to drawing inferences about what's going on in the situation or process that you are analyzing. You do this by writing Python code that calls constructors etc. See the example in SampleNets.py. B. create a sample event stream that represents a plausible sequence of events that your system should be able to analyze. Put this in a file in the same format as used in sample-event-sequence.txt. C. modify the code of BNT or add new modules as necessary to obtain the functionality you want in your system. This could include code to perform actions whenever an output node's threshold is exceeded. It could include code to generate events (rather than read them from a file). And it could include code to describe more clearly what is going on whenever a node's probability is updated (e.g., what the significance of the update is -- more certainty about something, an indication that the weight of evidence is becoming strong, etc.)

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