MATH3041 Modelling for Real World Systems

Mathematical Modelling for Real World Systems
Group Project
In the Group Project you will be organised into teams and will simulate a short consultancy
project with your peers. Each team will be allocated one of Brief A or Brief B for a fictitious
client described below. Your team will need to work together to produce a report for the end
of the term. Throughout the project you will need to communicate with both your client and
the managers of your company (represented by UNSW staff) in the following stages:
Monday Week 7 One page Workload Allocation due;
Monday/Thursday Week 9 Meeting with managers;
Monday/Wednesday Week 10 Live Presentation to clients;
End Week 10 Final Group Report and Reflection on Workload Due.
One page workload allocation
As in any consultancy project, you must have a coherent and credible plan of what you are
going to do, how you are going to do it and who is going to do what. The plan can be short
(the work will not yet have been done) and should focus on how the project will be achieved
by specific personnel.
Meeting with Managers
The managers will want to check in with the group in Week 9 to check progress and help
through any issues. All team members must be represented.
Live/Video Presentation of project findings
Clients typically require that findings be communicated orally as well as in a written report. For
this task teams should either prepare a live presentation or a pre-recorded video to be presented
to the clients (represented by your peers and UNSW staff). These will be screened/presented
in lecture times in week 10. If groups present a video they should still be present live to answer
questions. The audience will likely provide feedback during the presentation which should be
taken into account for the final report.
Final report
The final report should include all finalized analysis. More details of the structure of the final
report are given in the brief.
Individual workload reflection
Separately, each student will be asked to reflect on the   One page workload allocation   and
provide their perspective on how different students contributed to the task. In most cases,
students will contribute equally to a project and this aspect will not change students overall
mark. However, in some cases, where particular students do not carry out the work agreed to
in their workload allocation, their grade may be reduced.
More details of the structure of the final report are given in the brief.
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Brief A: Net Zero What?
Company
Global Institute for Climate Change and the Environment (GICCE)
Service Category
Mathematical Modelling of the Environment
Start/End Date
24th June 2024 / 2nd August 2024
Purpose of the engagement
Provide advice regarding the implications of different net zero targets for society and the envi-
ronment.
Engagement background
GICCE is committed to improving public understanding of Earth  s climate and environment.
Our organisation has undertaken to engage teams of mathematical modellers to assess human-
ities choices with regard to key sustainable development goals.
Recent agreements between national governments around the world have identified the goal
of reaching   net zero   as a global community as soon as possible. What is typically meant by
net zero is that anthropogenic emissions of green house gases would be zero in a net sense,
implying any emissions would be balanced by an equivalent amount of deliberate draw down
(often called direct capture) of green house gasses. Many nations have pledged to achieve this
by the year 2050.
Your task is to develop a simple model to illustrate the implications of three interpretations of
these net zero targets:
 Annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the same trajec-
tory they have for the last 20 years, begin to grow less quickly and then, at the year 2050,
plateau and remain at the same level (  net zero rate of change  ) for the rest of the century.
 Annual emissions plateau now and begin to reduce until zero annual emissions are achieved
at the year 2080 then they remain zero there-after (  net-zero annual emissions   - this is
the conventional meaning of   net zero  ).
Annual emissions begin to fall now and continue to do so such that zero annual emissions
are achieved at the year 2050 and then they become negative. This continues until
2100 when as much anthropogenic carbon has been removed from the atmosphere as was
originally emitted throughout history (  integrated net zero  ).
Engagement objectives
1. Develop the simplest mathematical model possible (but no simpler) that can explain the
relationship between relevant variables describing the economy, anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions, and their impact on the environment.
2. Test and calibrate the model based on historical data (iterate with Objective 1 if neces-
sary).
3. Apply the model to assess the scenarios discussed above.
4. Discuss the different implications of the model results including the necessary changes
required within the economy and in terms of technology to achieve the various emissions
scenarios and the implications for humanity and the environment - for example in terms
of global mean temperature, sea level and ocean acidification.
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Brief B: Can we   stop   climate change?
Company
Global Institute for Climate Change and the Environment (GICCE)
Service Category
Mathematical Modelling of the Environment
Start/End Date
24th June 2024 / 2nd August 2024
Purpose of the engagement
Provide advice regarding how and at what level different aspects of climate change can be
halted.
Engagement background
GICCE is committed to improving public understanding of Earth  s climate and environment.
Our organisation has undertaken to engage teams of mathematical modellers to assess human-
ities choices with regard to key sustainable development goals.
Recent agreements between national governments around the world have identified the goal
of stopping climate change. What is typically meant by this is that global mean temperature
should stop rising. Many nations have pledged to keep global mean temperature increases to
less than 2?C above their level prior to the industrial revolution (i.e. approximately 1850) with
many expressing an aspiration to keep temperature increases below 1.5C.
Your task is to develop a simple model to illustrate how greenhouse gas emissions and conse-
quently the economy and technology would be need to change to achieve the following different
interpretations of the of the   stop climate change   targets:
 Global mean temperature rises to 4?C above pre-industrial levels and plateaus at that
level from 2100.
 Global mean temperature rises to 2?C above pre-industrial levels and plateaus at that
level from 2050.
 Global mean temperature rises no further than 1.5?C above pre-industrial levels this
century and other aspects of climate change such as sea level rise stop by 2100.
Engagement objectives
1. Develop the simplest mathematical model possible (but no simpler) that can explain the
relationship between relevant variables describing the economy, anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions, and their impact on the environment.
2. Test and calibrate the model based on historical data (iterate with Objective 1 if neces-
sary).
3. Apply the model to assess the scenarios discussed above.
4. Discuss the different implications of the model results including the necessary changes
required within the economy and in terms of technology to achieve the various emissions
scenarios and the implications for humanity and the environment - for example in terms
of global mean temperature, sea level and ocean acidification etc.
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Group Report Guidelines
Your report should not exceed 10 pages (12pt latex font or equivalent - i.e. this size) including
figures, tables and bibliography but excluding appendices. Reports should be structured as
follows:
 Executive Summary
A very brief synopsis of your project. What are the key considerations, the main as-
sumptions and the key findings? The style should be suitable for release to a general
audience.
 Introduction
Provide an overview and details on the background of the problem. Comment on other
reports/literature/models used to do similar analysis to that presented here.
 Data and methods
Explain where the data used comes from including details of how it was processed/gathered
and explain how the team has treated the data. Give the motivation and details of the
development of the mathematical model(s). Explain all assumptions and how the math-
ematics were solved (e.g. analytically, numerically etc).
 Results
Describe analysis of both the data and mathematical model results and including quan-
titative assessments (e.g. goodness of fit). Include results of any sensitivity tests and/or
steps towards model refinement.
 Discussion
This should expand on your executive summary and should also discuss problems and
limitations of your modelling/analysis and make suggestions about future research. Are
there other issues that should be considered that are beyond the scope of your report?
 Bibliography
This should include references to journal articles as well as web pages, monographs and
other reports.
 Appendicies (can be in excess of the 10-page limit)
The appendix or appendices should include such things as the code used to analyse the
data and solve the mathematical model and/or details of sensitivity tests. Essentially
anything that is not essential reading for the 10-page report but may be useful to the
client as reference material.
You may choose to have subsections discussing the methods/results for parts I and II of your
brief or combine these.
You may use the UNSW library resources and the web (if useful) to prepare the reports. Your
reports must be typeset with correct mathematical exposition (using LATEX, MS Word or the
like).
The group mark will take into account presentation, literature coverage, mastery of mathemat-
ical methods, critical analysis and insight.
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One Page Work Allocation Guidelines
Your workload allocation should be a 1 page pdf giving details as dot points of how the group
will tackle their brief and who will do what. Below are suggested points the team could give
details on.
 Literature Search
Which team members will be tasked with a preliminary literature search, how will they
go about it? How will they share relevant literature with team members (e.g. find most
important papers, write summary?)
 Data Gathering
Which team members will gather relevant data and appropriate background information
about these data? How will they go about this?
 Model Development
Which team members will be tasked with initially developing and solving the mathemat-
ical model(s)?
 Analysis
Which team members will be tasked with analysis of the data and comparison with
solutions to the models? What code/language will be used?
 Writing
How will the report be written and who will be tasked with drafting individual sections
and overseeing formatting etc?
 Video/Live Presentation
How does the group envisage giving their presentation? What format will be used and
who will be tasked with editing/directing etc? (All team members must be part of the
presentation.)
 Meetings and management
How and when will the team or sub-teams meet? What preliminary internal deadlines
will the team have to contribute different aspects of the project and ensure the external
deadlines (e.g. Good Draft, Presentation etc.) are met?
 Risk mitigation
What systems are in place to mitigate risk? Is each task shared in case someone is
unable to contribute (e.g. due to illness or other personal circumstance)? Does each
team member have some tasks they can pursue without relying on others to complete
their tasks first?
Each team member will need to acknowledge that they endorse the Workload Allocation via
MS Teams.