利用活动区域斑块的深度学习推进太阳耀斑预测

Advancing Solar Flare Prediction using Deep Learning with Active Region Patches

Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA

2406.11054 (arxiv.org)

Abstract

Solar flares are one of the key space weather phenomena characterized by sudden and intense emissions of radiation from the Sun. The precise and reliable prediction of these phenomena is important due to their potential adverse effects on both space and Earth-based infrastructure. In this paper, we introduce a novel methodology for leveraging shape-based characteristics of magnetograms of active region (AR) patches and provide a novel capability for predicting solar flares covering the entirety of the solar disk (AR patches spanning from -90 ◦ to +90 ◦ of solar longitude). We create three deep learning models: (i) ResNet34, (ii) MobileNet, and (iii) MobileViT to predict ≥M-class flares and assess the efficacy of these models across various ranges of solar longitude. Given the inherent imbalance in our data, we employ augmentation techniques alongside undersampling during the model training phase, while maintaining imbalanced partitions in the testing data for realistic evaluation. We use a composite skill score (CSS) as our evaluation metric, computed as the geometric mean of the True Skill Score (TSS) and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) to rank and compare models. The primary contributions of this work are as follows: (i) We introduce a novel capability in solar flare prediction that allows predicting flares for each ARs throughout the solar disk and evaluate and compare the performance, (ii) Our candidate model (MobileNet) achieves a CSS=0.51 (TSS=0.60 and HSS=0.44), CSS=0.51 (TSS=0.59 and HSS=0.44), and CSS=0.48 (TSS=0.56 and HSS=0.40) for AR patches within ±30 ◦ , ±60 ◦ , ±90 ◦ of solar longitude respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate the ability to issue flare forecasts for ARs in near-limb regions (regions between ±60 ◦ to ±90 ◦ ) with a CSS=0.39 (TSS=0.48 and HSS=0.32), expanding the scope of AR-based models for solar flare prediction. This advancement opens new avenues for more reliable prediction of solar flares, thereby contributing to improved forecasting capabilities.

太阳耀斑是太空天气中一种重要现象，指的是太阳突然而强烈地释放出辐射。由于这些现象可能对太空和地面基础设施造成潜在不利影响，因此准确可靠地预测它们至关重要。本文介绍了一种新方法，利用活动区（AR）斑块磁图的形状特征来预测整个太阳盘上每个AR斑块跨越90°至+90°范围内的耀斑。

本文开发了三个深度学习模型：ResNet34、MobileNet和MobileViT，并评估它们在不同太阳经度范围内的有效性。考虑到数据中存在不平衡性问题，在模型训练阶段采用了增强技术和欠采样技术，并保持测试数据中的不平衡分布以进行真实评估。

本文使用composite skill score（CSS）作为评估指标，该指标综合考虑了True Skill Score（TSS）和Heidke Skill Score（HSS），用于排名和比较模型性能。

本文主要贡献如下：

首先，引入了一种新颖的太阳耀斑预测方法，可以对整个太阳盘上每个AR进行耀斑预测，并对其性能进行评估和比较；其次，在±30°、±60°、±90°范围内的AR斑块上，候选模型MobileNet实现了CSS=0.51（TSS=0.60，HSS=0.44）、CSS=0.51（TSS=0.59，HSS=0.44）和CSS=0.48（TSS=0.56，HSS=0.40）。

此外，在接近边缘区域即±60°至±90°之间展示了发布给予AR区域更广泛应用范围耀斑预报的能力,CSS=0.39（Tss=0.48，Hss=0.32)。这一进展为提高对太阳耀斑可靠预测提供了新途径。