ai人工智能_当AI接手我们的三种情况时-CSDN博客

ai人工智能

不像Luddites (Unlike the Luddites)

In the 19th century, a group of textile workers, know as the Luddites, protested against machines taking over their jobs. Their form of protest often involved destroying the machines that replaced them. Since the, the term ‘Luddite’ has become synonymous with a person that opposes new forms of technology out of fear for job loss, rising inequality, etc.

在19世纪，一群名为Luddites的纺织工人抗议机器接替他们的工作。他们的抗议形式经常涉及摧毁替换它们的机器。从那以后，“卢迪特”一词已经成为一个人，因为担心失业，不平等加剧等原因而反对新形式的技术。

However, the Luddite fear seemed out of proportion. Jobs were lost, yes, but many others were created. As machines and robots became able to do menial, manual (‘physical’) jobs, we humans could always find some comfort in knowing that there would always be ‘cognitive’ jobs for us, such as teaching, communicating, interpreting data,…

但是，卢迪特人的恐惧似乎不成比例。乔布斯丢了，是的，但是创造了许多其他的。随着机器和机器人能够完成繁重的手动(“物理”)工作，我们人类总会感到有些安慰，因为他们知道对我们来说总会有“认知”工作，例如教学，交流，解释数据等。

Then came machine learning/AI. Suddenly, even the cognitive jobs are no longer safe from artificial applicants.

然后是机器学习/人工智能。突然之间，即使是认知工作也不再受到人工应聘者的保护。

Whereto now? Shall we embrace neo-Luddism and strongly curtail the abilities of AI, or do we fully embrace the possible revolution in our jobs, our societies, and our lives?

现在去哪儿？我们是应该接受新卢比主义并强烈削弱AI的能力，还是完全接受工作，社会和生活中可能发生的革命？

Right now, it’s still up to us to figure out which way we want the pendulum of possibility to swing.

目前，我们仍然需要弄清楚我们希望可能性摆如何摆动。

方案1：乌托邦 (Scenario 1: Utopia)

Let’s start with rose-tinted glasses.

让我们从玫瑰色眼镜开始。

Yes, AI/machine learning is advancing fast and soon it will be able to do (almost) anything we can do. Science? Check. Art? Check.

是的，人工智能/机器学习正在快速发展，很快它将能够(几乎)做我们能做的任何事情。科学？检查一下艺术？检查一下

(Although not everyone agrees that the ‘advances’ in AI are what they seem. Be careful of hype. But for our scenarios here, let’s give it the benefit of the doubt.)

(尽管并非所有人都同意AI的“先进性”是他们看上去的样子。请谨慎炒作。但是对于我们这里的情况，让我们从怀疑中受益。)

More than that, AI will probably be able to do our jobs better, faster, and with less mistakes. And once we have AI that builds AI, there’s no way we’ll be able to catch up. We can’t compete with the ‘super’ in superintelligence.

不仅如此，人工智能将能够更好，更快地完成我们的工作，并且减少错误。一旦拥有构建了AI的AI，我们将无法追赶。我们无法与超级智能中的“超级”竞争。

But that may be a great thing.

但这可能是一件好事。

Once AI can guide production and transport robots (for example, a network of self-driving cars, trucks, trains, planes, boats…), commodities can be produced and allocated to ensure that no one is left wanting of, well, almost anything. Post-scarcity arrives.

一旦AI可以指导生产和运输机器人(例如，无人驾驶汽车，卡车，火车，飞机，轮船…的网络)，就可以生产和分配商品，以确保没有人不想要任何东西。稀缺后到了。

We won’t longer have jobs, but we’ll no longer need them. Heck, most of us might no longer want them. No more nine-to-five, but actual freedom to do with your precious time what you choose. If you want to work, if you need a job for purpose, then sure, the algorithms will fit you in somewhere. But for the rest of us, sweet — frightening — freedom awaits.

我们将不再拥有工作，但不再需要它们。哎呀，我们大多数人可能不再想要它们。不再需要九点五分，而是真正的自由选择与自己宝贵的时间有关。如果您想工作，如果您需要一份有目的的工作，那么可以肯定，这些算法将适合您。但是对于我们其余的人来说，甜蜜的-令人恐惧的-自由等待着。

方案2：反乌托邦 (Scenario 2: Dystopia)

Time for a new set of glasses. Dark ones, this time.

该换一套新眼镜了。这次是深色的。

Again let’s start with the assumption that AI/machine learning advances to the point that it takes over much, if not all, human jobs. But this time, it is not accompanied by major political, economic, and societal reforms.

再次让我们从一个假设开始，即AI /机器学习会发展到接管很多(甚至不是全部)人工工作的地步。但是这次，它并没有伴随着重大的政治，经济和社会改革。

In other words, the benefits are not well-distributed (just look at the world right now). A small elite will do well, but the people who will lose their jobs are also the ones who will have the least access to the potential benefits of better technology and its corollaries, such as healthcare, education, etc. If this sounds eerily like our current predicament, just imagine the inequality even starker.

换句话说，收益分布不均(现在看看世界)。少数精英会做得很好，但是失业的人也是最不可能享受到更好技术及其推论(例如医疗保健，教育等)的潜在好处的人。如果这听起来像我们当前的困境，只想像一下不平等，甚至更加激烈。

And once you’re at the (growing) bottom of the pile, it will be increasingly hard to improve your situation. Retraining yourself without access to education is hard, and funneling resources your way will become ever more difficult as your access to the latest technologies will decrease with every passing second.

一旦您处于(成长中的)最底层，改善您的处境就变得越来越困难。在没有受教育的情况下对自己进行再培训是很困难的，随着您获取最新技术的机会会随着时间的流逝而减少，因此，将资源分配到您手中的方式将变得越来越困难。

To improve you situation, you want to — have to — work, but there are no jobs. All you can really do is hunt for scraps in order to survive.

为了改善您的处境，您想要(必须)工作，但没有工作。您真正能做的就是寻找废品以求生存。

Yikes.

kes

方案3：极端之间 (Scenario 3: Between the extremes)

The two scenarios above are, of course, the extreme of a wide spectrum of possibilities. If we allow the assumption that AI will indeed reduce the need for human employees in a large variety of jobs, we’ll likely end up somewhere in between utopia and dystopia.

当然，以上两种情况都是各种各样可能性的极端。如果我们假设AI确实会减少各种各样工作中对人类员工的需求，那么我们很可能最终会处于乌托邦和反乌托邦之间。

Right now, it’s still up to us to figure out which way we want the pendulum of possibility to swing.

目前，我们仍然需要弄清楚我们希望可能性摆如何摆动。

As (if?) AI/machine learning continues to advance, more and more (parts of) current jobs will no longer have a need for human employees. To be sure, AI also creates jobs. Programmers, developers, AI ethicists… are all in much higher demand than they have ever been.

随着(如果？)人工智能/机器学习的不断发展，越来越多的(部分)当前工作将不再需要人类员工。可以肯定的是，人工智能也创造了工作。程序员，开发人员，人工智能伦理学家……对需求的需求比以往任何时候都要高得多。

But not everyone is a programmer.

但是并不是每个人都是程序员。

The new jobs are not like the old jobs. On both the societal and personal level, the transition may be painful. Retraining will become more important than ever. And, in time, less and less jobs will be available overall.

新工作不像旧工作。在社会和个人层面上，过渡都可能是痛苦的。再培训将比以往更加重要。而且，随着时间的流逝，总体上将提供越来越少的工作。

This means, that even now, we might have to begin thinking about new economic, political, and social models. (We can’t really wait because, let’s be honest, politics and policy are not exactly the most adaptable or fast-moving segments of society.)

这意味着，即使是现在，我们可能仍必须开始考虑新的经济，政治和社会模式。 (我们实在不能等待，因为，老实说，政治和政策并非社会中最适应或发展最快的部分。)

Free universal healthcare, guaranteed access to training and education, and a universal basic income all seem pipe dreams in our current world, but they may well be essential components of a non-dystopian future.

免费的全民医疗保健，有保障的培训和教育机会以及全民的基本收入在我们当今世界看来都是梦pipe以求的东西，但它们很可能是非反乌托邦式未来的基本组成部分。

We should think about which economic/political/social models could support these societal components. It will be painful to shake off historical inertia and overcome the human tendency for ‘short-termism’ and personal profit-seeking. But we might have to.

我们应该考虑哪些经济/政治/社会模式可以支持这些社会要素。摆脱历史的惯性，克服人类的“短期主义”和个人谋利趋势，将是痛苦的。但是我们可能必须这样做。

We can still nudge the pendulum. Let’s not waste the opportunity…

我们仍然可以轻摆。让我们不要浪费机会……