ai人工智能大爆发_大流行期间，人工智能基金能否击败该指数？-CSDN博客

ai人工智能大爆发

Every investor dreams of beating the index. Experts handpick stocks to add to their portfolio and create expensive hedge funds that attempt to beat the market. However, the truth is that only a fraction of investors manages to beat the index over an extended period of time.

E投资者非常希望击败该指数。专家们挑选股票来增加他们的投资组合，并创建试图击败市场的昂贵对冲基金。但是，事实是，只有一小部分投资者在很长一段时间内设法击败了该指数。

In 2008, Warren Buffet confronted the hedge fund industry. Buffet argued that an index fund could outperform a handpicked portfolio over a period of ten years. Sure enough, Buffet proved to be right. A simple index fund defeated all of the experts’ handpicked funds.

2008年，沃伦·巴菲特 ( Warren Buffet)面对对冲基金行业。巴菲特认为，在十年内，指数基金的表现可能会优于精选的投资组合。果然，巴菲特被证明是正确的。一个简单的指数基金击败了所有专家精选的基金。

Tony Robbins has written a 660-page book called Money: Master The Game, in which Robbins explained the ins and outs of financial investments while interviewing some of the greatest minds in economics. In it, Robbins mentions that “[t]here are 7,707 different mutual funds in the United States […]. But the statistic is worth repeating: 96% will fail to match or beat the market over any extended period.” (Tony Robbins, Money: Master The Game, 2016, p. 96, ISBN: 978–1–4711–4861–3).

托尼·罗宾斯(Tony Robbins)写了660页的书，名为《 金钱：掌握游戏》 ，其中罗宾斯在采访经济学界的一些最有才华的人士时，解释了金融投资的来龙去脉。罗宾斯在书中提到：“美国[…]这里有7,707种不同的共同基金。但该统计值得重复：96％的市场在任何长时间内都无法与市场匹敌或击败。” (Tony Robbins，《 金钱：掌握游戏》 ，2016年，第96页，ISBN：978–1–4711–4861–3)。

That’s right: 96% of mutual funds in the US fail to beat the index over an extended period.

没错：美国96％的共同基金在较长时间内未能超过该指数。

Humans clearly struggle with beating the index. So what about artificial intelligence (AI)?

人类显然在击败该指数方面感到挣扎。那么人工智能(AI)呢？

A Finnish asset management company called FIM launched the Nordics’ first AI-powered fund in November of 2017. It’s called FIM Artificiell Intelligens A. The fund uses artificial intelligence to select investments based on the object’s economic data.

一家名为FIM的芬兰资产管理公司于2017年11月推出了Nordics的第一支AI基金。这就是FIM Artificiell Intelligens A。 该基金利用人工智能根据对象的经济数据选择投资。

Though the fund is Nordic, more than half of the companies that the AI-powered fund invests in are seated in the United States of America. The five biggest investments in the fund’s portfolio are ChemoCentryx Inc, West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, Energix-Renewable Energies Ltd, IDEXX Laboratories Inc, and GN Store Nord.

尽管该基金是北欧的，但人工智能基金投资的公司中有一半以上位于美利坚合众国。基金投资组合中最大的五笔投资是ChemoCentryx Inc，West Pharmaceutical Services Inc，Energix-Renewable Energies Ltd，IDEXX Laboratories Inc和GN Store Nord。

So, let’s see how well the AI has performed. The fund itself has actually been around since 2001 (previously named FIM Nordic Placeringsfond), though it was renamed and started using AI in 2019–11–20. Thus, let us compare the fund’s performance since its first day of using AI up until the last closing day at the time of writing, which was 2020–06–19.

因此，让我们看看AI的表现如何。该基金本身实际上自2001年以来就存在(以前称为FIM Nordic Placeringsfond )，尽管它已重命名并于2019-11-20年开始使用AI。因此，让我们比较一下从使用AI的第一天到撰写本文时的最后一个收盘日(即2020-06-19)的基金表现。

Image for post — avanza.se. Blue line: FIM Artificiell Intelligens A. Yellow line: DJ World Index. Green line: Avanza Global. The image depicts the progress of these three options starting from 2019–11–20 until 2020–06–19. The screenshot was captured on 2020–06–21. avanza.se的屏幕截图。蓝线：FIM Artificiell IntelligensA。黄线：DJ世界指数。绿线：Avanza Global。该图描绘了这三个选项从2019–11–20到2020–06–19的进度。屏幕截图于2020-06-21捕获。

Since the fund is Nordic, I am comparing it on a Nordic website.

由于该基金是北欧公司，因此我正在北欧公司网站上进行比较。

The blue line represents the main character: FIM Artificiell Intelligens A. If you would have invested in 2019–11–20, you would have lost 8.91% by 2020–06–19. Between February and March of 2020, the market crashed due to the Coronavirus.

蓝线代表主要角色：FIM Artificiell IntelligensA。如果您在2019–11–20进行投资，那么到2020–06–19 损失了8.91％。在2020年2月至3月之间，市场因冠状病毒而崩溃。

Did it beat the index? The yellow line indicates the Dow Jones World Index. Look how closely the two intertwine up until the market crash in February. After that, the DJ World Index has recovered faster than the fund.

它胜过指数了吗？黄线表示道琼斯世界指数。看看这两人在2月份市场崩盘之前的交织程度如何。在那之后，DJ世界指数的复苏速度快于该基金。

What about the green line? The green line represents Avanza Global, a Swedish index fund that contains over 1,500 assets. It closely follows the Amundi Index MSCI World. The reason why I am comparing the fund with Avanza Global is to compare it to a local index fund that is available on the same trading platform. If you would have invested in 2019–11–20, you would have lost 4.85% by 2020–06–19.

绿线呢？绿线代表瑞典Avanza Global指数基金，其中包含1,500多种资产。它紧随Amundi Index MSCI World 。我之所以将该基金与Avanza Global进行比较，是为了将其与在同一交易平台上可用的本地指数基金进行比较。如果您将在2019-11-20年进行投资，那么到2020-06-19年您将损失4.85％。

For this period of time, the index fund clearly outperformed the AI-powered fund. The former dropped by only 4.85%, while the latter by 8.91%. And here’s the kicker: this is before accounting for fees. Excluding costs for purchasing and selling, the fees for FIM Artificiell Intelligens A comes down to 1.64%. For the index fund Avanza Global? 0.10%.

在这段时间里，指数基金显然跑赢了人工智能驱动的基金。前者仅下降了4.85％，而后者下降了8.91％。关键在于：这是在扣除费用之前。不包括购买和销售成本，FIM Artificiell Intelligens A的费用降至1.64％。对于指数基金Avanza Global？ 0.10％。

A premium price for an inferior product, one could argue.

一个劣质产品的溢价可能会引起争议。

One could also argue that the AI didn’t know how to react during a pandemic. After all, since the inception of the stock market, we have never experienced a pandemic on this scale, so how could the AI have known how to handle it? But if the AI is unable to handle volatile, unexpected markets, then what’s the point? Even before the pandemic, the AI’s performance was closely following the index, albeit at a higher price. If the AI is unable to outperform the index during neither ordinary nor extraordinary circumstances, then why bother having it?

有人可能会说，人工智能在大流行期间不知道如何应对。毕竟，自从股市成立以来，我们从未经历过如此大规模的大流行，那么AI如何知道如何应对呢？但是，如果AI无法应对瞬息万变的市场，那又有什么意义呢？即使在大流行发生之前，AI的表现也紧随指数之后，尽管价格较高。如果AI在无论是普通情况还是特殊情况下都无法胜过该指数，那为什么还要麻烦它呢？

Perhaps I am harsh. AI-powered funds are a recent invention. Over time, the algorithms will be fine-tuned. It’s very plausible that we will one day have fully autonomous investment funds that outperform all human funds.

也许我很苛刻。人工智能驱动的基金是最近的发明。随着时间的流逝，算法将进行微调。我们有一天会拥有完全自主的投资基金，胜过所有人力基金，这是非常合理的。

But that is certainly not the case today.

但这当然不是今天。

It appears as though neither humans nor machines can consistently beat the index. At the end of the day, the experts are right: invest in index funds.

似乎人类和机器都无法持续击败该指数。归根结底，专家们是对的：投资指数基金。