人工智能 企业变革
Are you already involved in an artificial intelligence (AI) business ? Although I have been analyzing data for more than 20 years, my company CALYPS entered the new era of data science and AI quite recently.
你已经参与了人工智能(AI)， 业务重？ 尽管我分析数据已有20多年了，但我的公司CALYPS才刚刚进入数据科学和AI的新时代。
Our team has indeed developed an AI able to relieve congestion in a hospital emergency room (ER). And it works: simply named Calyps AI, our software currently in production at France-based Valenciennes Hospital (1800+ beds) anticipates the number of ER arrivals up to 5 days before, with a confidence level up to 90%. It also integrates a bed dispatching tool for each key department, initiating a revolution in terms of case predictions and resource allocation. Even national TV channels (cf. news flashes on France 2, France 3 or France 24) praised the relevance of Calyps AI’s predictions… what an honor !
我们的团队确实开发了一种能够缓解医院急诊室(ER)拥堵的AI。 它的工作原理是：简单地命名为Calyps AI ，我们的软件目前在法国瓦伦西安医院生产(有1800多个床位)，预计ER到达的次数可在5天之前达到，置信度最高为90％。 它还为每个关键部门集成了床调度工具，在案例预测和资源分配方面引发了一场革命。 甚至国家电视频道(参见法国2 ，法国3或法国24的新闻快讯)也赞扬了Calyps AI的预言的重要性……真是一种荣幸！
So how did we build our dream team — Karim Bensaci, products & solutions manager ; PhD Hugo Flayac, data scientist ; Abdourahmane Faye, cloud & AI platforms expert — and such a disruptive healthtech solution in less than 2 years ? Let’s go back to the future.
那么，我们如何建立我们的理想团队-产品与解决方案经理Karim Bensaci； 博士Hugo Flayac，数据科学家； 云和AI平台专家Abdourahmane Faye –不到2年的时间，这种破坏性的医疗技术解决方案？ 让我们回到未来。
(Y-5)加速阶段之前 ((Y-5) Before the acceleration phase)
In 2015, CALYPS began its strategic shift by conducting its first study in Switzerland amongst various representatives and employees of public hospitals, or private clinics. Our survey was related to the new “medical-economic” data in use at that time: for this purpose, we interviewed 30 medical executives, CEO’s, CTO’s, chairmen and board members.
2015年，CALYPS通过在瑞士对公立医院或私人诊所的各种代表和雇员进行首次研究，开始了其战略转变。 我们的调查与当时使用的新“医学经济”数据有关：为此，我们采访了30位医疗主管，首席执行官，CTO，主席和董事会成员。
In answer to the need for more KPIs we developed an analytical platform called mediCAL dashboard (demo) whose objective is to centralize data provided by the information systems of a healthcare institution (patient file, RIS, laboratory, etc.) screening a 360° view of the patient journey.
为了满足对更多KPI的需求，我们开发了一个称为mediCAL仪表板 ( demo )的分析平台，其目的是集中由医疗机构信息系统(患者档案，RIS，实验室等)提供的数据，以360度视角进行查看病人的旅程。
In 2017, after implementing the mediCAL dashboard to optimize the organization and the planning of ambulatory operations in a Swiss hospital, we realized that we could do more than just represent the past. We had data available in the form of time series, well suited to the use of Machine Learning (ML).
2017年，在实施mediCAL仪表板以优化瑞士医院的门诊手术的组织和计划后，我们意识到我们可以做的不仅仅是代表过去。 我们拥有时间序列形式的数据，非常适合使用机器学习(ML)。
(Y-2)加速与发现 ((Y-2) Acceleration & findings)
With this in mind, we started an InnoSuisse research in 2018 in collaboration with the HEIG-VD (University of Applied Sciences) and one of their most brilliant data scientist, PhD Hugo Flayac. Our aim was to develop a solution for the management and planning of ambulatory operation flows under uncertainty.
考虑到这一点，我们于2018年与HEIG-VD (应用科学大学)及其最杰出的数据科学家之一Hugo Flayac博士合作，开展了InnoSuisse研究。 我们的目标是为不确定情况下的移动操作流程的管理和规划开发一种解决方案。
We collaborated with a hospital in the Lake Geneva region and, after a few months, switched from ambulatory to in-patient flows as the need for planning under uncertainty was even more obvious. In this project, we were able to transcribe the reality of the field by analyzing its data. I still keep in mind the quote of a management board member:
我们与日内瓦湖地区的一家医院进行了合作，几个月后，由于不确定性下的规划需求更加明显，因此从门诊病人流转为住院病人流。 在这个项目中，我们能够通过分析其数据来记录该领域的真实情况。 我仍然谨记管理委员会成员的名言：
‘Incredible, with little input from our part you were able to represent the reality in such a short time’
“难以置信，在我们很少的投入下，您就能在这么短的时间内代表现实”
We were therefore able to provide elements of anticipation for ambulatory and inpatient flows, notably through the prediction of length of stay. In a discussion with a consortium of Parisian hospitals, we understood that uncertainty was at its height when ER arrivals had to be integrated into a planned flow. As emergencies generate around 30% of hospitalizations over a year, they will somehow disrupt the organization and care planning.
因此，我们能够提供门诊和住院病人流量的预期要素，尤其是通过预测住院时间。 在与巴黎医院财团的讨论中，我们了解到，当急诊室必须将急诊室纳入计划流程时，不确定性正处在高度。 由于紧急情况在一年中造成约30％的住院治疗 ，因此它们将以某种方式破坏组织和护理计划。
(2019)首次实施Calyps AI ((2019) First implementation of Calyps AI)
Our implementation at Valenciennes General Hospital was done gradually, starting with the integration of hospital data. First things first: data preparation. At each iteration, the objective was to evaluate the variables that impact predictions and to take them into account in our predictive model. Only then did we integrate data from outside the hospital such as weather, sports venues — i.e. soccer matches at mythic Hainaut stadium can also lead to their load of injuries — cultural events, holidays or vacation schedules.
我们从整合医院数据开始逐步在瓦伦西安总医院实施。 第一件事：数据准备。 在每次迭代中，目标是评估影响预测的变量，并将其纳入我们的预测模型中。 只有到那时，我们才可以整合医院外部的数据，例如天气，运动场馆，例如神话般的海诺特体育场的足球比赛也可能导致他们受伤，例如文化活动，假期或休假时间表。
We proceeded hand in hand with the medical staff who had to interpret and act on these predictions. Internal collaboration (1) evangelization (2) and training (3) are three key elements of adherence to the system, building trust in the predictions and allaying any residual fear.
我们与必须解释并根据这些预测采取行动的医务人员携手前进。 内部协作(1)宣传(2)和培训(3)是遵守系统，建立对预测的信任以及减轻任何残留恐惧的三个关键要素。
During summer 2019, we started a real time experiment at Valenciennes Hospital and, six weeks later, provided daily predictions of emergency arrivals with an accuracy of >90% over the period.
在2019年夏季，我们在瓦朗谢讷医院开始了实时实验，六周后，在此期间提供了每天90％以上的紧急到达预测。
Calyps AI如何工作 (How Calyps AI works)
In brief, whether it is an emergency arrival flow or the patient trajectory, data needed for good predictions is more or less the same. Thanks to this, the chain of actions related to the flow can be anticipated and has a positive impact on both, the caregivers and the patients.
简而言之，无论是紧急到达流程还是患者轨迹，良好预测所需的数据或多或少都是相同的。 因此，可以预期与流程有关的一系列动作，并且对护理人员和患者都有积极影响。
Our algorithms are based on artificial neural networks (Deep Learning) fed by a variety of past and present data provided by the hospital. We build signals considered as key and train the system to find linkages between these signals, with a sense of time. For example, admissions clearly have an impact on hospitalizations, the department load (the related indicator is called Tension) and hospital discharges to follow up. On the other hand, admissions are influenced by external factors: weather, holidays, events, seasonal illnesses which must be integrated to reach stable performance throughout the year, particularly on peak activities.
我们的算法基于医院提供的各种过去和现在的数据提供的人工神经网络(深度学习)。 我们构建被认为是关键的信号，并训练系统以在一定的时间范围内找到这些信号之间的联系。 例如，入院显然会影响住院，部门工作量(相关指标称为“ 紧张度” )和后续出院的影响。 另一方面，入学受到外部因素的影响：天气，假日，事件，季节性疾病，必须综合考虑这些因素，才能全年保持稳定的表现，尤其是高峰活动。
Our policy is to inform without deciding at the doctor’s place: admission flow forecasts allow the Chief of Emergency Services to size his teams optimally 5 days in advance. Over a day, our Tension forecasts (number of patients present at a given time) enable each team to better anticipate the department’s situation hour by hour. We then provide accommodation solutions (bed) downstream of the emergencies for patients requiring hospitalization.
我们的政策是在不决定医生地点的情况下通知患者：入院流量预测使急诊科科长可以提前5天优化团队规模。 在一天的时间里，我们的紧张度预测(在给定时间在场的患者数量)使每个团队都能更好地逐时预测部门的情况。 然后，我们在紧急情况下为需要住院的患者提供住宿解决方案(床)。
Calyps AI还活着！ (Calyps AI alive!)
Look at the 3 min. demo of Calyps AI here.Currently, Calyps AI is used daily by the Chief of Emergency Services at Valenciennes Hospital. Doctors and caregivers also get their own level of information (chief gets predictions at 5 days, doctors at 2 days, caregivers at 2 hours). Finally, the benefits are many: staff are relieved in case of major tension and can focus on their primary mission. Hopefully, patients experience this indirectly.
看3分钟。 Calyps AI的演示在这里 。目前，Calyps AI每天通过紧急服务在瓦朗谢讷医院首席使用。 医生和护理人员也会获得自己的信息级别(首席人员在5天获得预测，医生在2天获得预测，在2小时获得护理人员)。 最后，好处很多：在出现重大紧张局势时，员工可以放心，并且可以专注于主要任务。 希望患者能够间接地体验到这一点。
从急诊室的流量预测到下游流量管理和住院后 (From flow anticipation in ER to downstream flow management and post-hospitalization)
Being able to predict incoming flows, their typology and duration, the link with overall hospital planning and patient care seems obvious. Since the beginning of 2020, we have been working on the next generation of Calyps AI and are planning the deployment of a hospital coordination platform with the objective of real-time and smart bed management including recommendations for stays, site allocation and anticipation of discharges.
能够预测传入的流量，其类型和持续时间，与整体医院计划和患者护理的联系似乎很明显。 自2020年初以来，我们一直在开发下一代Calyps AI，并计划部署医院协调平台，其目标是实时和智能病床管理，包括住宿建议，场地分配和出院预期。
Regarding Covid-19, we built specific signals to detect patients with flu-like symptoms and therefore potentially Coronavirus. Our algorithm still learns from the current situation and “draws inspiration” from the impacts of the flu to anticipate cases of Coronavirus. In case of new outbreak (or the resumption of a peak) our system will be ready to better anticipate. Real-time territorial data would be an additional asset to refine our predictions in connection with Covid-19 and we are actively working on this, notably in France.
关于Covid-19，我们构建了特异性信号来检测具有流感样症状的患者，因此可能检测冠状病毒。 我们的算法仍然可以从当前的情况中学习，并从流感的影响中“汲取灵感”以预测冠状病毒的病例。 如果发生新的爆发(或恢复高峰)，我们的系统将可以更好地进行预测。 实时区域数据将是完善我们与Covid-19相关的预测的一项附加资产，我们正在积极致力于这一工作，特别是在法国。
A story to be continued for sure.
这个故事肯定会继续。
人工智能 企业变革
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