亚洲国家互联网渗透率
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely hit various economies across the world, with global impact estimated between USD 6.1 trillion and USD 9.1 trillion, equivalent to a loss of 7.1% to 10.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP).[1] More than one-fifth of the global loss accrues to developing Asian economies, where the impact could cost as much as USD 2 trillion, equal to 8.5% of developing Asia’s GDP. To combat the adverse effects of outbreak-induced economic crises, authorities in the region have designed policy responses to support households, businesses and other sectors.
COVID-19大流行严重打击了世界各地的各个经济体，对全球的影响估计在6.1万亿美元至9.1万亿美元之间，相当于损失了全球国内生产总值(GDP)的7.1％至10.5％。 [1]全球损失的五分之一以上来自亚洲发展中经济体，其影响可能造成高达2万亿美元的损失，相当于亚洲发展中GDP的8.5％。 为了应对由爆发引起的经济危机的不利影响，该地区的主管部门已制定了应对政策，以支持家庭，企业和其他部门。
This article looks at the COVID-19 policy responses in developing Asia and is organized as follows:
本文着眼于亚洲发展中国家的COVID-19政策回应，其组织方式如下：
- The data set 数据集
- Size and distribution of policy response packages 政策响应包的大小和分布
- Measures to provide direct support to income 为收入提供直接支持的措施
- Other measures 其他措施
- How does the Philippines fare against others? 菲律宾如何对付别人？
- Conclusion 结论
The data set
数据集
Data used in this analysis come from the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) COVID-19 Policy Database, which collects information on economic measures taken and monetary amounts announced or estimated by authorities in developing Asia in response to COVID-19.[2] Policy actions are classified into five types: a) support the normal functioning of money markets; b) encourage private credit creation; c) provide direct long-term lending to nonfinancial sector; d) equity claims on the private sector; and e) provide direct support to income of households and businesses.
该分析中使用的数据来自亚洲开发银行(ADB)的COVID-19政策数据库，该数据库收集有关亚洲发展中国家在应对COVID-19时所宣布或估计的经济措施以及货币金额的信息。 [2]政策行动分为五类：a)支持货币市场的正常运作； b)鼓励建立私人信贷； c)向非金融部门提供直接长期贷款； d)对私营部门的股权索赔； e)为家庭和企业的收入提供直接支持。
Size and distribution of policy response packages
政策响应包的大小和分布
East Asia has the biggest policy response package amounting to USD 2.8 trillion, more than thrice the combined amount of the rest of the region (Figure 1). Relative to GDP, East Asian countries are also above par against others with packages equivalent to 21.5% of GDP on average.
东亚最大的一揽子政策措施总额达2.8万亿美元，是该地区其他地区总和的三倍多(图1)。 相对于国内生产总值，东亚国家也比其他国家高，平均相当于国内生产总值的21.5％。
The largest stimuli in the region come from countries in East and Southeast Asia, as well as India. China tops the list with USD 2.4 trillion, which is equivalent to almost 90% of the total response in East Asia (Figure 2). India’s package comes next at USD 363 billion, followed by South Korea with USD 235 billion. In terms of share in GDP, Hong Kong’s USD 192 billion-response is massive accounting for more than half of its GDP. Singapore’s response is equivalent to 25.4% of its GDP, while Malaysia 21.5%.
该地区最大的刺激来自东亚和东南亚国家以及印度。 中国以2.4万亿美元名列榜首，几乎相当于东亚总响应的90％(图2)。 其次是印度，总额为3630亿美元，其次是韩国，为2350亿美元。 就GDP的份额而言，香港的1,920亿美元的援助占了GDP的一半以上。 新加坡的React相当于其国内生产总值的25.4％，而马来西亚为21.5％。
There are some clear differences in the magnitude of packages as share in GDP across and even within sub regions (Figure 3). East Asia, for example, has an interquartile range of 14% to 17%, while Central and West Asia has 0.2% to 5%. Within sub regions, the variation is most pronounced for countries in Southeast Asia ranging from 0.04% (Lao PDR) to 25% (Singapore). The Pacific, on the other hand, tend to have less heterogeneity at below or equal to 10% of GDP, with Marshall Islands as an exception. Other outliers include Hong Kong and Taiwan for East Asia and Kazakhstan and Georgia for Central and West Asia.
一揽子计划的规模在次区域甚至在次区域之内在GDP中所占的比例之间存在明显差异(图3)。 例如，东亚的四分位数范围为14％至17％，而中亚和西亚的四分位数范围为0.2％至5％。 在次区域内，东南亚国家的变化最为明显，范围从0.04％(老挝)至25％(新加坡)。 另一方面，太平洋地区的异质性趋向于低于或等于GDP的10％，马绍尔群岛除外。 其他异常值包括东亚的香港和台湾以及中亚和西亚的哈萨克斯坦和乔治亚州。
Measures to provide direct support to income
为收入提供直接支持的措施
Providing direct support to income of households and businesses appears the most important objective of packages in the region (Figure 4). The whole block dedicated USD 1.9 trillion for measures such as in-kind and cash transfers to low-income households, insurance coverage for medical front liners, and wage support for low-wage workers. In per capita terms, Singapore provides the most generous support to income allotting more than USD 9,000 per person, followed by Hong Kong at more than USD 5,000 per person (Figure 5). In the Philippines, meanwhile, income support amounts to less than a hundred bucks per person.
为家庭和企业的收入提供直接支持似乎是该地区一揽子计划的最重要目标(图4)。 整个区块共投入1.9万亿美元用于诸如向低收入家庭的实物和现金转移，医疗前沿保险的覆盖以及对低薪工人的工资支持等措施。 按人均计算，新加坡为人均收入超过9,000美元的人提供了最慷慨的支持，其次是香港，人均收入超过5,000美元的人(图5)。 同时，在菲律宾，人均收入支持不到一百美元。
Other measures
其他措施
In addition to providing income support, authorities also put importance on ensuring normal functioning of money markets, encouraging private credit creation, and offering direct long-term lending to households and businesses (Figure 6). Measures to purchase equities in the private sector, on the other hand, play less role in many packages in the region.
除提供收入支持外，当局还重视确保货币市场的正常运作，鼓励私人信贷的建立以及向家庭和企业提供直接长期贷款(图6)。 另一方面，在私营部门购买股票的措施在该地区的许多一揽子计划中所起的作用较小。
All economies in East Asia have dedicated significant budget for measures that provide liquidity support (Figure 7). Hong Kong is notable with almost 70% of its total package accounted for by increasing banking sector’s liquidity, encouraging banks to deploy more flexible liquidity buffers, and easing interbank funding conditions. About one-fifth of China’s policy response is intended to expand lending facilities to aid manufacturers of medical supplies and daily necessities, micro-, small- and medium-sized firms, and workers in the agricultural sector.
东亚所有经济体都有大量预算用于提供流动性支持的措施(图7)。 引人注目的是，香港通过提高银行部门的流动性，鼓励银行部署更灵活的流动性缓冲，以及减轻银行间融资条件而占其总投资的70％。 中国约有五分之一的政策React旨在扩大贷款设施，以帮助医疗用品和日用品的制造商，微型，中小型企业以及农业部门的工人。
In South Asia, secondary market purchases of securities, interest rate reductions, and loan guarantees account for a sizeable proportion of total packages (Figure 8). The whole package of Nepal, for example, consists of a USD 2 billion refinancing fund to provide subsidized credit for banks willing to lend at a concessional rate to priority sectors including small and medium enterprises (SME). In Sri Lanka, about two-fifths of the package is intended to implement new credit schemes to support lending to construction and other business segments severely hit by the pandemic.
在南亚，二级市场上购买的证券，利率降低和贷款担保占一揽子交易总额的很大一部分(图8)。 例如，尼泊尔的一揽子计划包括一个20亿美元的再融资基金，用于向愿意以优惠利率向包括中小企业在内的优先部门提供贷款的银行提供补贴信贷。 在斯里兰卡，一揽子计划中约有五分之二旨在实施新的信贷计划，以支持对受到大流行严重打击的建筑和其他业务部门的贷款。
Long-term direct loans to businesses and households, primary market purchases of private debt securities with long-term maturities, as well as forbearance are measures prominent in many packages in Southeast Asia (Figure 9). Brunei’s package consists of a USD 320 billion stimulus, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, to extend deferment on principal payments of loans to all sectors. More than 70% of Myanmar’s response is accounted for by a USD 71 million fund to provide soft loans garments and tourism sectors, as well as SMEs, at reduced interest rates.
在东南亚的许多一揽子计划中，对企业和家庭的长期直接贷款，具有长期到期期限的私人债务证券在初级市场的购买以及抵债是很多措施(图9)。 文莱的一揽子计划包括3,200亿美元的刺激计划，相当于GDP的2.6％，以延长对所有部门的贷款本金支付的延期。 缅甸提供的7100万美元资金中有70％以上来自于缅甸，这些资金用于以较低的利率向服装，旅游业以及中小企业提供软贷款。
How does the Philippines fare against others?
菲律宾如何对付别人？
The Philippines has allotted USD 21 billion, equivalent to 5.9 of GDP, for COVID-19 policy response, about half of which, or 2.9% of GDP, consists of an emergency subsidy program for 18 million low-income families in the informal sector, wage subsidy for employees of small businesses, and assistance funds for local governments, among others (Figure 10). A substantial USD 5.2 billion additional liquidity, equal to 1.5% of GDP, also accounts for a sizeable portion of the country’s stimulus. Measures under providing liquidity support include reductions in the reserve requirement ratio for SMEs and large enterprises.
菲律宾已拨出210亿美元，相当于GDP的5.9，用于应对COVID-19的政策，其中大约一半，即GDP的2.9％，是针对非正规部门1800万低收入家庭的紧急补贴计划，为小企业雇员提供工资补贴，为地方政府提供援助资金(图10)。 大量的52亿美元流动资金，相当于GDP的1.5％，也占该国刺激计划的很大一部分。 提供流动性支持的措施包括降低中小企业和大型企业的准备金率。
Despite efforts to push government spending though, Philippine figures still lag peers in Southeast Asia (Figure 11). Indonesia, a good base to compare Philippines with, allotted USD 116 billion stimulus, equivalent to 10.4% of GDP. The Philippine response is behind even Vietnam’s USD 26.5 billion (10.1% of GDP), a country notable for containing the severity of outbreak. Budget for income support also lags most levels in developing Asia (Figure 12).
尽管努力推动政府支出，但菲律宾的数字仍然落后于东南亚的其他国家(图11)。 印尼是菲律宾的良好基础，它分配了1,160亿美元的经济刺激计划，相当于GDP的10.4％。 菲律宾的React甚至落后于越南的265亿美元(占GDP的10.1％)，该国以爆发的严重程度着称。 收入支持预算也落后于亚洲发展中国家的大多数水平(图12)。
Conclusion
结论
It has been challenging for policymakers in developing Asia to design right-sized policy responses to combat the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on incomes of households and business as well as on the financial system. While this exploratory data analysis suggests sizable efforts taken by governments to prevent further worsening of the economy, it says nothing about how such policy actions affect the number of COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, the region’s policy responses, among other factors, will influence the recovery of developing Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic.
对于发展中亚洲的政策制定者来说，设计适当规模的政策应对方案以应对COVID-19大流行对家庭和企业的收入以及对金融系统的负面影响一直是一项挑战。 尽管这项探索性的数据分析表明政府为防止经济进一步恶化已做出了巨大努力，但并没有说明这种政策行动如何影响COVID-19案件的数量。 尽管如此，该地区的政策React以及其他因素，将影响从COVID-19大流行中恢复的亚洲发展中经济体。
Data and codes used in this article are available in this Github repository.
该Github存储库中提供了本文中使用的数据和代码。
亚洲国家互联网渗透率
2741
被折叠的 条评论
为什么被折叠?
到【灌水乐园】发言
