泛指通过锁定和市场适应性来兴起新公司

At the height of the lockdown restrictions, close to 9,000,000 workers were put on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (see plot below). This has meant that these people have had a lot of paid ‘free’ time, but not without drawbacks, as this also meant a lower income and uncertainty about the future. At the same time, around 750,000 jobs have been lost throughout.

在封锁限制的高峰期，将近900万名工人被冠状病毒职位保留计划(见下图)。 这意味着这些人有很多带薪的“自由”时间，但并非没有缺点，因为这也意味着较低的收入和对未来的不确定性。 同时，整个期间约有750,000个工作岗位流失 。

Could it be that this drove people to start new businesses? Maybe this allowed a lot of people time and opportunity to give their dream business a shot? Or maybe, some obvious gaps in the market began appearing — especially by new trends like a wider use of home office and demand for specific products?

难道这驱使人们开始新的生意？ 也许这使很多人有时间和机会来尝试他们的梦想业务？ 或者，也许市场上出现了一些明显的缺口，尤其是由于新趋势，例如家庭办公室的广泛使用和对特定产品的需求？

I thought it would be interesting to try and answer these questions by exploring the Companies House data product, which contains information on new companies registered throughout the UK. A caveat of this dataset is that it’s a ‘snapshot’ of companies currently active in the UK. This makes year-on-year comparisons difficult, as we don’t know the total number of companies that registered in the past, only those that have survived until now.

我认为通过探索Companies House数据产品来尝试回答这些问题会很有趣，该产品包含有关在英国注册的新公司的信息。 该数据集的一个警告是它是当前在英国活跃的公司的“快照”。 这使逐年比较变得困难，因为我们不知道过去注册的公司总数，只有至今尚存的公司。

The sheer number of people on furlough is astounding. At its peak, it was close to 14% of the UK population. Source: https://bit.ly/3h0ZkG5

休假的人数惊人。 在鼎盛时期，它接近英国人口的14％。 资料来源： https : //bit.ly/3h0ZkG5

企业家崛起 (The entrepreneurial rise)

The first step would be to verify whether there has actually been a noticeable change in the number of companies registered in the UK. To do this, we have a simple time series plot:

第一步将是验证在英国注册的公司数量是否确实发生了显着变化。 为此，我们有一个简单的时间序列图：

Though the data is quite irregular — there are a lot of spikes and dips — there is definitely significant growth after April and reaching its highest point in July. Next we can explore how 2020 trends compare to the previous years.

尽管数据是非常不规则的-有很多波峰和波谷-但在4月之后肯定会出现显着增长，并在7月达到最高点。 接下来，我们将探讨2020年趋势与前几年的比较。

When analysing this plot we have to remember the caveat outlined above, which is that we only get to see companies that have survived until today. However, if we assume that company registration and failure rates are fairly similar throughout the years, these lines should have similar shapes.

在分析此图时，我们必须记住上面概述的警告，那就是我们只能看到直到今天仍然存活的公司。 但是，如果我们假设这些年来公司注册和失败率相当相似，则这些线条应具有相似的形状。

This indeed seems to hold true for previous years, with similar trends such as as a slight increase in company registration numbers in March, as well as in October and November, and fairly flat otherwise. What’s hard to miss is the dip in April and the peak in July of 2020. Based on this, I think we can confidently say there’s been a shift in the trend of company registrations after lockdown.

往年确实确实如此，类似的趋势，例如3月，10月和11月公司注册人数略有增加，其他方面则基本持平。 很难错过的是4月的低谷和2020年7月的高峰。基于此，我认为我们可以自信地说，锁定后公司注册的趋势已经发生了变化。

这些公司提供什么服务？ (What services do these companies provide?)

Now we know there’s been a significant increase in the number of companies registered, it would be interesting to see what industries have been most affected by these new trends. To find these, I calculated the year-on-year percentage change in the monthly number of companies registered per industry, and calculated the mean between April and August. I also filtered out SIC codes with less than 30 average company registrations per month, to reduce amount of noise.

现在我们知道注册公司的数量已大大增加，看看哪些行业受到这些新趋势的影响是很有趣的。 为了找到这些，我计算了每个行业注册公司的月度数量的逐年百分比变化，并计算了4月到8月之间的平均值。 我还筛选出每月平均少于30个公司注册的SIC代码，以减少噪音。

Interesting to see some of these are quite logical industries that we would have expected to see growth in. They could be grouped up into categories:

有趣的是，我们期望其中的一些非常合乎逻辑的行业将会增长。它们可以分为以下几类：

医疗类 (Medical)

There are a few related to medical and pharmaceutical supplies, such as: manufacture of medical supplies (32500), wholesale of pharmaceutical goods (46460) and retail sale of medical goods (47749). The description of these SIC codes is quite vague, but I can imagine there were companies set up to try satisfy the demand caused by the pandemic.

与医疗和药品供应有关的有一些，例如：医疗用品制造(32500)，药品批发(46460)和药品零售(47749)。 这些SIC代码的描述非常模糊，但是我可以想象有一些公司成立来试图满足由大流行引起的需求。

化妆品和卫生用品(又称手胶和卫生纸危机？) (Cosmetic and toilet articles (a.k.a. hand gel and toilet paper crisis?))

The retail sale of cosmetic and toilet articles (47750) growth might be explained through the unexplained demand of toiletries at the start of lockdown. It could also be a shift towards more wellness focused products, as a quick scan of the company names several skin and beauty related companies.

化妆品和盥洗用品的零售量(47750)的增长可能是由于锁定开始时对洗护用品的需求无法解释造成的。 由于对该公司的快速扫描列出了几家与皮肤和美容相关的公司，这也可能是朝着更注重健康的产品的方向转移。

爱好和户外活动 (Hobbies and the outdoors)

We all know someone who’s started a hobby through lockdown, so it’s not surprising to see retail sale of sports goods, fishing gear, camping goods and bicycles (47640) in this list. People are trying to make the most of this summer by ‘staycationing’. Related to this might be sale of other motor vehicles (45190) which includes motorhomes and camping vehicles.

我们都知道有人通过锁定开始了一项爱好，因此在此列表中看到体育用品，渔具，露营用品和自行车的零售销售也就不足为奇了(47640)。 人们正在尝试通过“停留”来充分利用这个夏天。 与此相关的可能是其他汽车(45190)的销售，其中包括房车和露营车。

网上零售 (Online retail)

Sharp rise in retail sale via mail orders and internet (47910) and the accompanying licensed carriers (53201). With most shops closed for such a long time and people stuck at home, most of our shopping has been online.

通过邮购和互联网(47910)以及随附的许可运营商(53201)的零售额急剧上升。 由于大多数商店都关闭了这么长时间，而且人们一直呆在家里，所以我们的大部分购物都在网上进行。

专业清洁服务 (Specialised cleaning services)

SIC Code 81222 — No explanation needed

SIC代码81222 —无需解释

未知(至少对我而言) (Unknown (to me, at least))

I couldn’t find an explanation for the growth in agricultural raw materials, livestock and textile raw materials (46110) and operation of coach passenger facilities (52213). If you do, let me know!

我找不到农业原材料，牲畜和纺织原材料的增长(46110)和旅游客运设施的运营(52213)的解释。 如果您愿意，请告诉我！

哪些行业的新公司减少了？ (Which industries saw a drop in new companies?)

Now, let’s take a look at the industries that were hardest hit by the current situation.

现在，让我们看一下受当前形势影响最大的行业。

Again, several of these make a lot of logical sense. I’ll split them into groups as I did before:

同样，其中一些具有很大的逻辑意义。 我将像以前一样将它们分成几组：

款待 (Hospitality)

Hotels (55100), restaurants (56101) and pubs (56302) make the list, as anyone could have guessed. It’s really satisfying to see that although they took a big hit in April and May, the number of new companies is almost bounced back to its pre-pandemic levels! It is also interesting that, although much fewer, restaurants and pubs still opened at the height of lockdown in April, with around 200 and 100 respectively.

旅馆(55100)，饭店(56101)和酒吧(56302)列在清单上，这是任何人都可能猜到的。 令人高兴的是，尽管它们在4月和5月遭受了重大打击，但新公司的数量几乎反弹到了大流行前的水平！ 有趣的是，尽管餐馆和酒吧数量较少，但仍在4月的锁定高峰期开业，分别约为200家和100家。

表演艺术 (Performing arts)

Performing arts (90010) and support to performing arts (90020) were (and still are) severely affected by the pandemic. Hopefully normality will resume soon enough!

大流行严重影响了表演艺术(90010)和对表演艺术的支持(90020)。 希望正常状态会尽快恢复！

私人医疗实践 (Private medical practices)

These seem to have quite erratic behaviour, but it also makes sense that they wouldn’t see a rise in new registrations, since they had to remain closed during the start of the lockdown (see dental practices which have a significant dip). It could also be due to doctors being very busy fighting COVID and thus, not setting up new clinics.

这些行为似乎很不稳定，但是也有道理，他们不会看到新注册数量的增加，因为在锁定开始之前必须保持关闭状态(请参阅牙科诊所的情况)。 也可能是由于医生忙于对抗COVID，因此没有建立新的诊所。

I’m surprised at how quickly the market seems to adapt to changes in the environment to respond to new demands and opportunities. It would also be interesting to explore how many of these new companies are ‘real’ startups and how many of these and existing companies creating new entities to serve to services.

我对市场似乎能够很快适应环境变化以应对新的需求和机遇感到惊讶。 探索这些新公司中有多少是“真正的”初创公司，以及这些公司和现有公司中有多少创建新实体来为服务提供服务，这也将很有趣。

Stay tuned for my next blog when I explore what these changes look like at a regional level and check whether there have been hotpots or if it has happened uniformly across the country.

当我在区域级别探索这些变化时，请关注我的下一个博客，并检查是否有热点地区或全国各地是否都出现了热点地区。

Applied Data Science Partners is a London based consultancy that implements end-to-end data science solutions for businesses, delivering measurable value. If you’re looking to do more with your data, please get in touch via our website. Follow us on LinkedIn for more AI and data science stories!

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翻译自: https://medium.com/applied-data-science/the-pandepreneurs-the-rise-of-new-companies-through-lockdown-and-market-adaptability-482271dfb8fd