机器学习 预测 交通_使用机器学习预测交通事故

机器学习 预测 交通

Road accidents constitute a significant proportion of the number of serious injuries reported every year. Yet, it is often challenging to determine which specific conditions lead to such events, making it more difficult for local law enforcement to address the number and severity of road accidents. We all know that some characteristics of vehicles and the surroundings play a key role (engine capacity, condition of the road, etc.). However, many questions are still open. Which of these factors are the leading ones? How much are the external factors to blame, compared to the driver skills?

[R OAD事故属严重受伤人数的显著比重逐年报道。 然而，确定导致这些事件的具体条件通常是具有挑战性的，这使得地方执法部门更难以解决交通事故的数量和严重性。 我们都知道，车辆和周围环境的某些特征起着关键作用(发动机容量，道路状况等)。 但是，许多问题仍然悬而未决。 哪些因素是主要因素？ 与驾驶员的技能相比，应归咎于多少外部因素？

We leveraged Machine Learning and the United Kingdom’s road accidents database to clarify these questions and specifically provide impact on two major areas:

我们利用机器学习和英国的道路事故数据库来澄清这些问题，并特别对两个主要领域产生影响：

1. First, we developed a risk score that quantifies the likelihood of a driver having a fatal/serious accident solely based on inputs gathered from individual and vehicle data. This score can be used both to influence driving rules and regulation and inform drivers on the factors that increase their accident risk.

   首先， 我们开发了一个风险评分，仅根据从个人和车辆数据中收集的输入数据来量化驾驶员发生致命/严重事故的可能性 。 此分数可用于影响驾驶规则和法规，并告知驾驶员增加其事故风险的因素。

2. Second, we analysed situational information (such as road type, weather conditions, etc.) to estimate the severity of an accident. Such insights would help governments to better understand the sources of accidents and act to reduce them.

   其次， 我们分析了情况信息 (例如道路类型，天气条件等)以估计事故的严重性。 这些见解将有助于政府更好地了解事故的根源并采取行动减少事故。

数据 (Data)

We use 220k+ accident reports from the Department for Transport of the United Kingdom, covering 2018. For each report, we have the information collected at the scene of the accident including:

我们使用了英国运输部提供的超过22万起事故报告，涵盖了2018年。对于每份报告，我们都有在事故现场收集的信息，包括：

• Casualty characteristics (e.g. gender, age and home area type)

  伤亡特征 (例如性别 ， 年龄和居住地区类型 )

• Situational variables (e.g. weather, road type and light conditions)

  情景变量 (例如天气 ， 道路类型和光照条件 )

• Accident descriptors (e.g. severity, presence of police)

  事故描述符 (例如严重程度 ， 警察在场 )

• Vehicle descriptors (e.g. age, power, type, model)

  车辆描述符 (例如， 年龄 ， 功率 ， 类型 ， 型号 )

Overall, the data provided by the Department for Transport can be grouped into driver information, which can be further broken down into vehicle and individual data, and external information ( e.g. accident location and light conditions).

总体而言，运输部提供的数