用lstm神经网络预测南派克佩蒂特河的流量

TL; DR： (TL;DR:)

I made an LSTM neural network model that uses 30+ years of weather and streamflow data to quite accurately predict what the streamflow will be tomorrow.

我制作了一个LSTM神经网络模型，该模型使用30多年的天气和流量数据来非常准确地预测明天的流量。

河流预报问题 (The problem with river forecasts)

Water meets Idaho granite. 📷 Will Stauffer-Norris

水遇见爱达荷州花岗岩。 Sta威尔·斯塔弗·诺里斯

The main reason I practice data science is to apply it to real-world problems. As a kayaker, I have spent many, many hours poring over weather forecasts, hydrologic forecasts, and SNOTEL station data to make a prediction about a river’s flow. There are good places out there that make this prediction- NOAA runs prediction centers throughout each major river basin in the country, including the South Fork.

我实践数据科学的主要原因是将其应用于实际问题。 作为皮划艇运动员，我花了许多小时研究天气预报，水文预报和SNOTEL站数据，以便对河流的流量做出预测。 有很多地方可以进行此预测-NOAA在全国每个主要流域( 包括南福克)都设有预测中心。

But these forecasts often fall short. In particular, I’ve noticed that the forecasts are susceptible to major rain events (flashy rivers in the Pacific Northwest are notoriously hard to predict), and the forecasts are typically only put out once or twice per day, which is often not frequent enough to react to rapidly changing mountain weather forecasts. NOAA also only gives forecasts on a select group of rivers. If you want a forecast for a smaller or more remote drainage, even if it’s gauged, you’re out of luck.

但是，这些预测往往达不到目标。 特别是，我注意到预报很容易受到重大降雨事件的影响(众所周知，太平洋西北部的山河泛滥很难预报)，而且预报通常每天仅发布一次或两次，而发布频率往往不够频繁对快速变化的山区天气预报做出React。 NOAA也仅对部分河流进行预报。 如果您希望得到一个更小或更远的排水量的预测，即使它是经过计量的，那么您就没有运气了。

So I’m setting out to create a model that will meet or exceed NOAA’s forecasts, and build models for some drainages that are not covered by NOAA.

因此，我着手创建一个将达到或超过NOAA预测的模型，并为NOAA并未涵盖的某些排水系统建立模型。

To start out, I’m benchmarking my model against an industry-standard model created by Upstream Tech.

首先，我将根据Upstream Tech创建的行业标准模型对我的模型进行基准测试。

The South Fork Payette is a great place to start, for several reasons:

出于以下几个原因，South Fork Payette是一个不错的起点：

1. The South Fork above Lowman is undammed, so the confounding variables of reservoirs are avoided.
   Lowman上方的South Fork不受限制，因此避免了储层的混杂变量。
2. The USGS operates a gauge on the South Fork, NOAA has weather stations and a river forecast, and there are SNOTEL sites in the basin. There is a lot of easily accessible data to start with.
   美国地质调查局在南叉上设有一个测距仪，美国国家海洋和大气管理局有气象站和河流预报，流域内还有SNOTEL站点。 首先有很多易于访问的数据。
3. I used to teach kayaking on the Payette and I’ve paddled almost every section of the river system, so I know the region and its hydrology well!
   我曾经在Payette上教皮划艇，并且几乎在河系的每个区域都划过桨，所以我非常了解该地区及其水文学！