数学模型预测模型_改进著名的nfl预测模型

数学模型预测模型

The NFL season is right around the corner. Players are nearing the end of training camp, and fans alike are eager to watch their favorite team play on Sunday again. How we got here has been unconventional to say the least. The offseason has been one we’ve never seen before, as the same can be said of this year in general. We should all be thankful there will even be a 2020 season given how this year has played out. But never less football appears to be back, and everyone is getting ready.

NFL赛季即将来临。 球员们即将接近训练营，球迷们都渴望再次在周日观看他们最喜欢的球队比赛。 至少可以说，我们如何到达这里是非常规的。 休赛期是我们从未见过的休赛期，与今年的情况一样。 鉴于今年的表现，我们都应该感恩，甚至会有2020赛季。 但是，足球似乎再也没有回来，每个人都在准备。

有钱可赚 (There’s Money to be Made)

When I say everyone is getting ready I’m talking about; coaches, players, fans, sports outlets, sports writers, sports betters, and Vegas. Vegas may look like the odd one out but I ensure you they have prepared for the 2020 season more than anyone else. Why is that you may ask? Well because their in the industry of information. The more information they have the more money you lose.

当我说每个人都在准备时，我是在谈论； 教练，球员，球迷，体育用品店，体育作家，体育用品和维加斯。 拉斯维加斯可能看起来很奇怪，但我确保您比其他任何人都为2020赛季做更多的准备。 为什么会问？ 好吧，因为他们从事的是信息产业。 他们拥有的信息越多，您损失的钱就越多。

See as the 2020 season rolls around Vegas will put odds out on hundreds of events that will happen in the current season, and every year millions of betters lay money on those odds hoping they occur. Spoiler Alert! Many of those betters will lose. Why? Because those odds don’t just come out of thin air. No, they are generated by elaborate models that when inputted information will output a probability of an event that most betters will often over or under value. This is why most betters lose. They simply don’t have the info that Vegas has.

拉斯维加斯将在2020年赛季如火如荼地进行，这将使本赛季将要发生的数百场赛事的赔率有所提高，而且每年都有数百万名优胜者为希望发生的那些赔率提供资金。 剧透警报！ 这些优胜者中的许多都将失去。 为什么？ 因为这些可能性不只是凭空产生的。 不，它们是由精心设计的模型生成的，这些模型在输入信息时将输出发生事件的可能性，而大多数情况下，发生这些事件的可能性往往会过高或过低。 这就是为什么最好的人会输掉的原因。 他们根本没有维加斯拥有的信息。

There are those that will win against Vegas and continually win against them. These betters have created their own models that compete with the ones Vegas uses, and is where our famous model comes into place.

有些人会赢得拉斯维加斯的胜利，并不断赢得他们的胜利。 这些更好的人创建了自己的模型，可以与Vegas所使用的模型竞争，这就是我们著名的模型得以应用的地方。

著名模特 (The Famous Model)

Your probably wondering what this quote on quote “Famous Model” is, well it was created by Nate Silver, the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight and his team.

您可能想知道引文“ Famous Model”的引文是什么，它是由FiveThirtyEight的创始人兼主编Nate Silver和他的团队创建的。

FiveThirtyEight’s Logo

FiveThirtyEight的徽标

FiveThirtyEight is a website focused on politics, economics, and sports blogging. There famous for using statistical analysis and hard numbers to tell compelling stories and create models that show or predict an outcome. Questionably their most famous is their NFL prediction model. The model has been seen to compare to those in Vegas and is the reason many professional sports betters use it. They rely on the predictions and bet accordingly to what the model says.

FiveThirtyEight是一个专注于政治，经济学和体育博客的网站。 那里以使用统计分析和困难数字来讲述引人入胜的故事并创建显示或预测结果的模型而闻名。 无疑，他们最著名的是他们的NFL预测模型。 该模型已被证明可以与维加斯模型相提并论，这是许多职业体育爱好者更好地使用它的原因。 他们依靠预测，并根据模型所说的进行相应的下注。

The model was created in 2014 and has been continuously updated over the years to further improve the accuracy of the predictions. But in 2020 I have found ways to improve the model and increase the accuracy of the predictions even further. I will go more into detail later on but I think it’s time you finally learn what this famous model is and how it works.

该模型于2014年创建，多年来不断更新，以进一步提高预测的准确性。 但是在2020年，我已经找到了改进模型和进一步提高预测准确性的方法。 稍后我将进一步详细介绍，但我认为是时候该终于了解这种著名的模型及其工作原理了。

埃洛 (Elo)

If your familiar with how players are ranked in chess then your familiar with Elo ratings. Elo rating is a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results, and is the core of the model created by FiveThirtyEight. These Elo ratings are able to forecast the outcome of every game and generate win probabilities for each team. The nuts and bolts of this system are described below.

如果您熟悉棋手的排名方式，那么您将熟悉Elo等级。 Elo评分是一个简单的系统，可以根据正面结果来判断球队或球员，并且是FiveThirtyEight创建的模型的核心。 这些Elo评分能够预测每场比赛的结果并为每支球队产生获胜概率。 该系统的螺母和螺栓如下所述。

游戏预测 (Game predictions)

To begin with, the Elo model assigns every team a power rating. Those ratings are used to generate win probabilities for games based on the difference between the two team’s Elo ratings. Teams increase their Elo rating by winning games and decrease by losing, but by how much depends on the expected result of the game.

首先，Elo模型为每个团队分配功率等级。 这些等级用于根据两队Elo等级之间的差异生成游戏的获胜概率。 球队通过赢得比赛来提高Elo等级，而通过输掉而降低，但是幅度多少取决于比赛的预期结果。

For example, lets take two teams and give them each an Elo rating. Lets say the Dallas Cowboys are versing the New York Giants. The Dallas Cowboys have an Elo rating of 1650 and the New York Giants have a rating of 1400. Since Dallas’s rating is higher we know they have won more games than New York and should be favored in this game. In fact I can tell you, the Elo model gives them a win probability of 80%.

例如，让两个团队为每个团队分配Elo等级。 可以说达拉斯牛仔队正在与纽约巨人队对抗。 达拉斯牛仔队的Elo等级为1650，纽约巨人队的等级为1400。由于达拉斯的等级较高，我们知道他们赢得了比纽约更多的比赛，因此在本场比赛中将受到青睐。 实际上，我可以告诉您，Elo模型为他们提供了80％的获胜概率。

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants, week 1 of the 2019 season

达拉斯牛仔队vs纽约巨人队，2019赛季第1周

The reason Elo ratings are called a head-to-head system is because if Dallas were to win this game they would take points from New York, meaning their Elo rating would increase by how much New York’s decreases. Determining that number depends on the expected result. Since Dallas is favored to win by a large margin, if they do win their Elo rating will only increase about 5 points. However if New York wins, their Elo rating will increase by roughly 17 points. Elo takes in the level of the opponents and rewards more to the underdogs and less to the favorites. This is to ensure teams with high Elo ratings are winning against teams of their caliber and not just against below average teams.

Elo等级之所以被称为对头系统，是因为如果达拉斯赢得这场比赛，他们将从纽约获得积分，这意味着他们的Elo等级将增加纽约的跌幅。 确定该数字取决于预期结果。 由于达拉斯倾向于大幅度获胜，因此如果他们赢得胜利，他们的Elo评分只会增加大约5分。 但是，如果纽约获胜，他们的Elo评分将提高大约17点。 Elo接受对手的级别，对弱者奖励更多，对最爱的奖励更少。 这是为了确保Elo评分较高的团队在与其同等水平的团队中取得胜利，而不仅仅是在低于平均水平的团队中取得胜利。

调整项 (Adjustments)

On the surface the Elo system is very simple. If a team wins a game their Elo rating increases based on the expected outcome, vice versa if they were to lose said game. But football is more complicated then that. Elo ratings show the overall strength of the football team as a whole, but what it doesn’t take in is the outside circumstances that affect a football game. Circumstances that include: is the team playing at home or away, are they coming off a bye week, or are there changes at starting quarterback.

从表面上看，Elo系统非常简单。 如果一支球队赢了一场比赛，他们的Elo评分会根据预期结果提高，反之亦然，如果他们输了该局。 但是足球要复杂得多。 Elo评分显示了整个足球队的整体实力，但是没有考虑到影响足球比赛的外部环境。 情况包括：球队是在主场还是客场打球，他们是在再见一周之后出战还是在四分卫开始时发生变化。

There has to be adjustments for these situations to make sure the model is as accurate as possible. Therefore, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model also includes several adjustments that take place before the start of each game:

必须针对这些情况进行调整，以确保模型尽可能准确。 因此，FiveThirtyEight的Elo模型还包括在每个游戏开始之前进行的一些调整：

• Home-Field Adjustment — Teams in the NFL play better at home than away. In fact over the last 10 years, teams that play at home win by an average of 2.2 points more than if they were away. Therefore the model adjusts for this home field advantage by increasing the home team’s Elo rating by 55 points before the game.

  调整主场-NFL的球队在主场比在远队更好。 实际上，在过去的10年中，在主场比赛的球队比不在场的球队平均赢得2.2分。 因此，该模型通过在比赛前将主队的Elo评分提高了55分来调整这一主场优势。