matlab的narx的使用,matlab NARX做时间序列预测的问题

NARX 神经网络做一个时间序列预测的时候碰到一些问题

1.目标：用input(178*2)预测output(178*1)，数据和程序附后

2.问题：

1)训练不多几次就会出现的时候 “Maximum MU reached” 从而训练停止，这个该如何修正？

2)大家看看就这个模型神经元个数滞后期是怎么选取好呢？我试的效果是怎么都不好，额额

3)这个模型拟合效果非常差，有什么办法？是模型设置的问题，还是数据本身不适合NARX？

刚刚开始学习神经网络，欢迎大家各种的指出问题，感谢，非常感谢！！！

数据：

input =

10872.8373015874 1689.60634920634

11339.7753968256 2115.03333333333

10913.6166666668 1950.79563492063

9847.67222222229 1783.36468253968

11097.2992063493 1814.22261904761

11061.2742063493 2258.42817460317

10354.1718614719 1992.64880952380

9818.05238095238 2190.72301587301

9795.04920634914 1818.13690476190

7974.02658730149 1675.79761904761

9038.48809523801 1733.78888888888

8461.31309523798 1895.97619047618

9437.25595238097 2400.22142857143

9236.41190476188 2009.86428571428

9769.72063492062 1907.91349206349

9208.16948051945 2122.44047619047

9402.66428571426 2301.70476190476

9615.39285714285 2031.05476190475

7972.20873015860 1634.88015873015

7661.97539682528 1549.70952380952

7826.03571428558 1424.63809523809

7477.40753968242 1472.19285714286

7493.69404761892 1500.39285714285

8245.06190476179 2023.99880952380

8077.04444444430 1780.96190476190

8283.84404761892 1638.12261904762

8381.96428571419 1745.37380952381

8453.45476190465 1575.06190476190

9320.94920634917 1959.02976190476

9461.73809523816 1854.09761904762

9313.65158730152 1929.56190476190

8558.53928571421 1547.90952380952

8656.99087301579 1476.63412698412

9635.40952380952 1826.56904761904

8656.55119047611 1727.24166666666

8867.37619047613 1817.63095238095

8949.49404761894 1897.17539682539

9252.14880952377 1707.39047619047

7742.36587301575 1376.65476190476

6969.23690476183 1291.59523809524

7607.10714285705 1475.79642857143

7716.09841269829 1414.91190476190

9371.79404761901 1544.30357142857

12640.6428571430 2395.94285714286

9130.21865079358 1590.05238095238

7258.29682539671 1220.97857142857

9023.30238095233 1608.37738095238

8515.98849206340 1646.65952380952

9694.23253968254 1801.65714285714

10375.9714285715 1905.58571428571

9757.79761904763 2034.60238095236

10856.8007326008 1893.21904761904

10426.7130952382 1753.73571428571

10851.1559523810 2032.22976190476

10337.2023809524 2002.57857142856

14253.4508658012 2164.42900432900

10875.7063492064 2178.00357142857

10863.2115079366 2331.01547619048

10865.5404761906 2268.41785714285

12336.6920634923 2259.35714285714

12164.6920634923 2378.08809523810