问题描述
坛子中有b只黑球及r只红球,随机取一只,把原球放回,并加进与抽出球同色的球c只,再摸第二次,这样下去一共摸了n次,问前面的 n 1 n_{1} n1次出现黑球,后面的 n 2 = n − n 1 n_{2} = n-n_{1} n2=n−n1次出现红球的概率是多少?
问题解答
用 A 1 A_{1} A1表示第一次摸出黑球这一事件,…, A n 1 A_{n_{1}} An1表示第次摸出黑球, A n 1 + 1 A_{n_{1}+1} An1+1表示第 n 1 + 1 n_{1}+1 n1+1次摸出红球,…, A n A_{n} An表示第n次摸出红球,则
P( A 1 A_{1} A1)= b b + r \frac{b}{b+r} b+rb ,P( A 2 ∣ A 1 A_{2}|A_{1} A2∣A1)= b + c b + r + c \frac{b+c}{b+r+c} b+r+cb+c
P( A 3 ∣ A 1 A 2 A_{3}|A_{1}A_{2} A3∣A1A2)= b + 2 c b + r + 2 c \frac{b+2c}{b+r+2c} b+r+2cb+2c,…
P( A n 1 ∣ A 1 . . . A n 1 − 1 A_{n_{1}}|A_{1}...A_{n_{1}-1} An1∣A1...An1−1)= b + ( n 1 − 1 ) c b + r + ( n 1 − 1 ) c \frac{b+(n_{1}-1)c}{b+r+(n_{1}-1)c} b+r+(n1−1)cb+(n1−1)c
P( A n 1 + 1 ∣ A 1 . . . A n 1 A_{n_{1}+1}|A_{1}...A_{n_{1}} An1+1∣A1...An1)= r b + r + n 1 c \frac{r}{b+r+n_{1}c} b+r+n1cr
P( A n 1 + 2 ∣ A 1 . . . A n 1 + 1 A_{n_{1}+2}|A_{1}...A_{n_{1}+1} An1+2∣A1...An1+1)= r + c b + r + ( n 1 + 1 ) c \frac{r+c}{b+r+(n_{1}+1)c} b+r+(n1+1)cr+c,…
P( A n ∣ A 1 . . A n − 1 A_{n}|A_{1}..A_{n-1} An∣A1..An−1)= r + ( n 2 − 1 ) c b + r + ( n − 1 ) c \frac{r+(n_{2}-1)c}{b+r+(n-1)c} b+r+(n−1)cr+(n2−1)c
因此
P( A 1 A 2 . . . A n A_{1}A_{2}...A_{n} A1A2...An)= b b + r ⋅ b + c b + r + c ⋅ b + 2 c b + r + 2 c . . . b + ( n 1 − 1 ) c b + r + ( n 1 − 1 ) c ⋅ r b + r + n 1 c ⋅ r + c b + r + ( n 1 + 1 ) c . . . r + ( n 2 − 1 ) c b + r + ( n − 1 ) c \frac{b}{b+r}\cdot\frac{b+c}{b+r+c}\cdot\frac{b+2c}{b+r+2c}...\frac{b+(n_{1}-1)c}{b+r+(n_{1}-1)c}\cdot\frac{r}{b+r+n_{1}c}\cdot\frac{r+c}{b+r+(n_{1}+1)c}...\frac{r+(n_{2}-1)c}{b+r+(n-1)c} b+rb⋅b+r+cb+c⋅b+r+2cb+2c...b+r+(n1−1)cb+(n1−1)c⋅b+r+n1cr⋅b+r+(n1+1)cr+c...b+r+(n−1)cr+(n2−1)c
最后的答案只与黑球,红球出现的次数有关,而与出现的顺序无关。