SAP Forecasting and Replenishment for Retail – A short Overview【中英文双语版】

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment for Retail – A short Overview

SAP零售预测和补货–简要概述

General Objectives and Applicability 总体目标和适用范围

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment (F&R) is a solution which has specifically been created for efficient replenishment of retailers’ stores and distribution centers. Its main goal is to simultaneously reduce inventories while optimizing actual service levels.

SAP Forecasting and Replenishment（F&R）是专门为零售商门店和配送中心的高效补货而创建的解决方案。其主要目标是在提升服务质量的同时减少库存。

SAP F&R focuses on products which are replenished on a regular base from external and/or internal vendors. The solution is built to manage even more complex products which are affected by trends, seasons, seasonality, price changes and/or promotions.

SAP F&R专注于由外部供应商和/或内部供应商定期补货的商品。该解决方案旨在管理受趋势、季节、季节性、价格变化和/或促销影响的更复杂的商品。

As a basic requirement products need to have a measurable and repeated sales history as well as up-to-date stock information. 作为一项基本要求，商品需要具有可测量和重复的销售历史以及最新的库存信息。

Process Overview 过程概述

The business process begins with the evaluation of future demand of customers, and then of stores and DC, which needs to be fulfilled. This demand determination considers the effect of upcoming events on the demand of the different products, such as promotions or seasonality. The demand is then opposed to the anticipated in-stock positions in order to determine whether these are sufficient to meet the demand. If not enough inventory will be available, an order needs to be placed to cover the gap between supply and demand. While building an order different constraints have to be considered, such as vendor minimums, pack size requirements or truck load restrictions like weight or volume. 业务流程首先评估客户的未来需求，然后评估需要满足的门店和DC。该需求确定考虑了即将到来的事件对不同商品需求的影响，如促销或季节性。然后将需求与预期的库存头寸相对，以确定这些头寸是否足以满足需求。如果没有足够的库存，则需要下订单以弥补供需缺口。在建立订单时，必须考虑不同的限制，如供应商最低要求、包装尺寸要求或卡车装载限制，如重量或体积。

Orders might need specific approval before being transmitted to the respective vendor. 订单在发送给相应的供应商之前可能需要得到批准。

In parallel, many vendors expect retailers to provide them with forecasts of the order volumes expected for the future to allow for a better planning of their own supply chain and production capacities. 同时，许多供应商希望零售商向他们提供未来预期订单量的预测，以便更好地规划自己的供应链和生产能力。

From a system perspective the process flow works as follows: 从系统角度来看，业务流程如下所示：

The process begins with the transfer of data into SAP F&R which are needed to run the forecasting and replenishment processes. Once the data are updated and available, forecasting and replenishment calculations run automatically: 该流程从将数据传输到SAP F&R开始，这些数据是SAP F&R运行预测和补货所需要的。一旦数据被更新并可用后，预测和补货计算将自动运行：

First, the forecast is calculated. On this basis requirements calculation starts and issues net requirements which are then optimized. The results from this step are optimized order proposals, and, possibly, also alerts (called “exceptions”). 首先，计算预测。在此基础上，开始需求计算并发布净需求，然后对其进行优化。此步骤的结果是优化的订货建议，可能还有警报（称为“例外”）。

Order proposals are processed in the order proposal release management where they are either released or forwarded to exception handling or the manual release processes. 订货建议书在订货建议下达管理中进行处理，它们要么被下达，要么会被转发至异常处理或手动下达流程。

- Exceptions trigger the user, such as replenishment analysts, to look closer at the areas indicated. 异常会触发用户（如补货分析师）更仔细地查看相应数据。

- Released order proposals are transferred to the purchasing system, for example SAP Retail, where they are automatically converted in valid orders and transmitted to the respective supplier. 已下达的订货建议会被传输到采购系统，例如SAP Retail，在那里它们会被自动转换为有效的采购订单并传输到相应的供应商。

In addition, SAP F&R provides data for vendor collaboration: Sales, sales forecast and even order forecast can be shared with the respective vendor for a better planning of the supply chain. 此外，SAP F&R还为供应商协作提供数据：销售、销售预测甚至订单预测可与相应供应商共享，以更好地规划供应链。

SAP Business Warehouse has been furnished with content for SAP F&R analytics. Different information from SAP F&R can be transferred in to SAP BW to allow for a monitoring of the overall processes and KPI as well as of the quality of the solution implementation.

SAP Business Warehouse已提供SAP F&R 分析的内容。SAP F&R的不同信息可以传输到SAP BW，以便监控整个流程和KPI以及解决方案实施的质量。

Detailed Process Description 详细过程描述

Provision of Master Data and Transactional Data 提供主数据和交易数据

The data relevant to the calculations need to be imported into SAP F&R from the leading master and transactional data systems. These data can stem from multiple systems. They have to be provided to SAP F&R in time for the calculations to start. 与计算相关的数据需要从主要的主数据和事务数据系统导入SAP F&R。这些数据可以来自多个系统，它们必须及时将其提供给SAP F&R，以便开始计算。

Relevant data are (amongst others): 相关数据包括（除其他外）：

- Master data, such as products, locations, supply relationships, scheduling information, product hierarchies 主数据，如商品、位置、供应关系、排程信息、商品层次等

- Sales / goods issue data 销售/发货数据

- On-hand stock positions 现有库存头寸

- On-order stock positions 订单库存头寸

- Demand influencing factors, such as promotions, holidays, price changes. 需求影响因素，如促销、节假日、价格变动等。

Maintaining Parameters 维护参数

Parameters are like additional attributes to the master data controlling the detailed aspects of the processes. The planned delivery time for example is a simple parameter. 维护参数类似于主数据的附加属性，控制流程的方方面面的细节。例如，计划交货时间是一个简单的参数。

Manual changes of SAP F&R parameters are made based on results of analytical reports, exception reporting or business experience and user judgment. SAP F&R参数的手动更改基于分析报告结果、异常报告或业务经验以及用户判断。

SAP F&R allows for different modes of parameter maintenance: Parameters can either be sent from an external system by interface, or preset in the interface (usage of default values/default profiles), or manually maintained within SAP F&R. It is possible to specify within the solution which parameters must not be overwritten by inbound interfaces. SAP F&R允许不同的参数维护模式：参数可以通过接口从外部系统发送，也可以在接口中预设（使用默认值/默认参数文件），或者在SAP F&R中手动维护。可以在解决方案中指定哪些参数不能被入站接口所覆盖。

For an easier maintenance the usage of profiles is enabled in the solution wherever it makes sense. Profiles are sets of parameters within one specific process area, for example a “forecasting profile” bundles parameters concerning the forecast calculation. These profiles need to be maintained only once and can then be assigned to all suitable master data elements, e.g. location products. 为了便于维护，在解决方案中，必要时都会启用参数文件。参数文件是一个特定处理领域的参数集，例如“预测参数文件”捆绑了与预测计算有关的参数。这些配置文件只需维护一次，然后可以分配给所有合适的主数据，例如商品。

For time-efficient manual assignment of profiles mass maintenance tools are provided within SAP F&R. SAP F&R中提供了批量维护工具，以便及时高效地手动分配参数文件。

Within SAP F&R many parameters can also be maintained in a time-phased manner. This allows setting of future values/assignments as well as automated consideration of new parameter values by the system once a specific point in time is reached. A centralized customizing for all parameter settings and definitions, which do not change frequently, is offered. 在SAP F&R中，许多参数也可以分时间段进行维护。这允许设置未来值/分配，以及在到了指定的时间点后系统自动考虑新参数值。这能为所有不常改动的参数设置以及定义提供集中式的定制功能。

Forecast Calculation 预测计算

A broad range of statistical methods and algorithms are available. They are applied fully automatically and individually per each product/location combination based on different characteristics - and this per each forecast calculation run. For example based on the sales velocity of a product, which may change over time, the appropriate forecast model and parameter settings will be selected automatically. 有多种统计方法和算法可用。基于不同的特征，它们会完全自动地、单独地应用于每个商品/位置组合，并在每次预测计算运行时应用。例如，根据商品的销售速度（可能随时间变化），将自动选择适当的预测模型和参数设置。

The forecasting calculation is done fully automated and no manual profiling is necessary. Sales or consumption history is evaluated and extrapolated into the future while automatically considering 预测计算完全自动化，无需手动分析。对销售或消费历史进行评估并推断到未来，同时自动考虑：

- Trends 趋势

- Seasons and seasonal pattern 季节和季节模式

- Past and future demand influencing factors (DIF) such as price changes, promotions, holidays, emergency situations such as hurricanes. 过去和未来的需求影响因素（DIF），如价格变化、促销、假期、飓风等紧急情况。

- Related products (e.g. cannibalization or HALO effects). 相关商品（例如，配件拆用或光环效应）。

Safety amounts are calculated within this step according to a very flexible safety stock policy. 根据非常灵活的安全库存政策，在此步骤中计算安全数量。

Requirements Quantity Calculation 需求量计算

Net requirements are calculated based on (amongst others): 净需求基于如下信息计算：

- Future demand calculated in the forecast module 在预测模块中计算的未来需求

- On-hand stock projections 现有库存预测

- Order and delivery cycles 订单和交付周期

- Fixed or dynamic target stock 固定或动态目标库存

- Fixed or dynamic presentation stock requirements. 固定或动态的库存需求。

Pre-allocation capabilities allow building up stock earlier than it would be usually done: In specific situations, typically promotions or Christmas, the demand of some products is extremely high compared to their regular demand. The impact on logistic resources and capacities may be so heavy that the work load must be distributed over multiple weeks. An advanced option for supplying locations like DC consists in basing the requirements quantity calculation on an aggregated store order forecast instead of using a DC-own forecast. 预分配功能允许提前建立库存：在特定情况下，通常是促销或圣诞节，与常规需求相比，某些商品的需求非常高。对后勤资源和能力的影响可能非常大，因此工作负荷必须在数周内进行分配。对于像DC这样的供应地点，一个更高级的选项是根据汇总的门店订单预测计算需求数量，而不是使用DC自己的预测。

This technique is called multiechelon replenishment. It basically generates an order forecast on store level for every single product location combination and rolls it up to the level of the supplying DC.

这种技术称为多级补货。它基本上为每个商品/位置组合生成门店级别的订单预测，并将其汇总到负责供应的DC。

This allows for a most precise consideration of future demand occurring against the DC as it automatically includes information about upcoming store sales uplifts (e.g. due to promotions), pack size, scheduling and – partially - optimization. 这允许对DC的未来需求进行最精确的考虑，因为它自动包含即将到来的门店销售提升（例如，由于促销）、包装尺寸、日程安排和部分优化的信息。

Requirements Quantity Optimization 需求量优化

Within this step net requirements are combined to order proposals and optimized according to defined rules. 在此步骤中，将净需求合并到订货建议中，并根据定义好的规则进行优化。

An order proposal is defined as the combination of products and quantities for a receiving location and a specific (internal or external) supplier and for a defined delivery date. 订货建议定义为接收地点和特定（内部或外部）供应商以及规定交付日期的商品和数量的组合。

Although the results of the requirements quantity calculation includes already some optimization functionality (e.g. safety stocks or dynamic presentation stocks), additional optimization requirements need being considered. 尽管需求数量计算的结果已经包括了一些优化功能（例如安全库存或动态库存），但还需要考虑其他优化需求。

Further optimization steps can include simple pack size rounding or matching order proposals against vendor minimums; but they can also include more complex optimization scenarios such as truck load building or Economic Order Quantity, where ordering cost are balanced with the cost of capital tied-up in inventories. 进一步的优化步骤可包括简单的包装尺寸取整或根据供应商最低要求匹配订货建议；但它们也可以包括更复杂的优化场景，如卡车装载量或经济订单数量，其中订单成本与库存中占用的资本成本相平衡。

Exception Management / Manual Release 异常管理/手动下达

Exception handling covers the main point of interaction of a replenishment analyst with the SAP F&R system. The replenishment analyst reviews and adjusts the results of SAP F&R mainly triggered by exceptions rather than reviewing all results SAP F&R generates. 异常处理涵盖了补货分析员与SAP F&R系统交互的要点。补货分析员审查和调整SAP F&R的结果，这些结果主要由异常触发，而不是审查SAP F&R生成的所有结果。

The system can be configured to issue exceptions based on the following main processes: 系统可配置为基于以下主要流程来触发异常：

Connectivity, automated forecast and replenishment calculations, order proposal release management. Exceptions can be of a more technical nature like when indicating missing stock updates or inconsistent master data. Exceptions can also be related to business reasons such as exceptions on order proposal (items) which may deal with reasons why an order proposal needs review, e.g. purchase order value or order proposals of new vendors. The solution can be configured in a way that order proposals which fulfill certain conditions or bear a certain exception need to be released manually. 连通性、自动预测和补货计算、订货建议下达管理。例外情况可能更具技术性，如指示缺少库存更新或主数据不一致时。例外情况也可能与业务原因有关，例如订货建议（行项目）的例外情况，可能涉及订货建议需要审查的原因，例如采购订单价值或新供应商的订货建议。解决方案可以被配置成这样的方式：满足特定条件或带有特定异常的订货建议需要手动下达。

Order Proposal Release Management 订货建议下达管理

SAP F&R’s order proposal release management is a process in which order proposals are either automatically released for transfer into the purchasing solution or automatically marked for manual release. SAP F&R的订货建议下达管理是一个流程，在该流程中，订货建议要么自动下达以转入到采购解决方案中，要么自动标记为手动下达。

The solution offers a wide array of options to create release strategies which define under which circumstances an order proposal must not be released. Release strategies can contain different rules and restrictions, such as maximum or minimum rules based on specific values or quantities. They can be applied on different levels, e.g. on level of a product and/or a location. 该解决方案提供了一系列选项来创建下达策略，这些策略定义了在何种情况下不得下达订货建议。下达策略可以包含不同的规则和限制，例如基于特定值或数量的最大或最小规则。它们可以应用于不同层级，例如商品层级和/或位置层级。

Also, exceptions can be configured in a way that they prevent an order proposal from being automatically released. 此外，可以配置异常，以防止订货建议被自动下达。

Manual Replenishment 人工补货

SAP F&R contains different tools or workbenches to support the manual replenishment processes: SAP F&R包含支持手动补货流程的不同工具或工作台：

The replenishment workbench allows the replenishment analyst to review, create, alter, delete, copy, group or split order proposals in many ways.

Replenishment workbench允许补货分析师以多种方式审查、创建、更改、删除、复制、分组或拆分订货建议。

The product workbench contains useful functionality for the replenishment analyst to review products – and alter/create order proposal items - based on different criteria, e.g. products with their delivery date overdue, or products with unexpected sales troughs.

Product workbench包含有用的功能，可供补货分析师根据不同的标准审查商品，并更改/创建订货建议行项目，例如交货日期过期的商品，或出现意外销售低谷的商品。

The exception workbench provides the replenishment analyst and other users with information on exceptional situations which need to be solved. Every user can subscribe to specific types of exceptions and data subsets he is responsible for.  

Exception workbench为补货分析师和其他用户提供有关需要解决的异常情况的信息。每个用户都可以订阅他负责的特定类型的异常和数据子集。

Cause determination provides an aggregated view of all information concerning a specific location product for an in-depth analysis. Information provided are (amongst others) master data, time series (such as forecast, sales), exceptions.

Cause determination提供有关特定位置商品的所有信息的汇总视图，以进行深入分析。提供的信息包括（除其他外）主数据、时间序列（如预测、销售）、例外情况。

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment (CPFR) 协作计划、预测和补货（CPFR）

SAP F&R supports parts of the CPFR process. CPFR as defined by the Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association “is a business practice that combines the intelligence of of multiple trading partners in the planning and fulfillment of customer demand.” (see http://www.vics.org/committees/cpfr/ ).

SAP F&R支持部分CPFR流程。Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards Association定义的CPFR“是一种商业实践，将多个贸易伙伴的智慧结合在一起，做计划和满足客户需求”（参见http://www.vics.org/committees/cpfr/ )。

SAP F&R supports this process by creation of both a demand and an order forecast, and allowing the retailer to share this data with defined vendors by providing a function module which can easily be called via RFC.

SAP F&R通过创建需求和订单预测来支持此流程，提供由RFC调用的功能模块，以允许零售商与供应商共享这些数据。

SAP F&R Analytics SAP F&R分析

SAP F&R provides standard content in SAP Business Warehouse (BW) to monitor the quality of the processes and of the solution implementation. SAP F&R exports information into SAP BW on a regular base where it is kept over long periods of time and available for different views – from highly aggregated views drill down into the most detailed views is offered.

SAP F&R在SAP Business Warehouse（BW）中提供标准内容，以监控流程和解决方案实施的质量。SAP F&R定期将信息导出到SAP BW中，并长期保存，可用于不同的视图—从高度聚合的视图下钻最详细的视图。

The following standard queries are delivered: 提供以下标准查询：

- History of manually changed order proposals 手工更改订货建议的历史记录

- Order proposal level of automation report 订货建议自动报表

- Forecast quality 预测质量

- Range of coverage development 发展覆盖范围

- Overstocks 积压

- Understocks 库存不足

- Stockouts and undelivered products 缺货和未交付商品

- Stockouts and lost sales 缺货和销售损失

- Number of stock exceptions 库存例外的数量

- Weekly service level development 每周服务级别开发

- Gross margin return on investment report 毛利率投资回报报表

- Replenishment exceptions 补货例外

- Dead stock report 呆滞库存报告

- Variances of dynamic versus static minimum stock 动态与静态最小库存的方差

With the use of SAP BW many other additional analysis and reports can be generated using the information collected from SAP F&R. 通过使用SAP BW，可以使用从SAP F&R收集的信息生成许多其他分析和报表。

Related Content 相关内容

SAP F&R Wiki:

http://wiki.sdn.sap.com/wiki/display/Retail/SAP+Forecasting+and+Replenishment

SAP Retail Wiki: IS-Retail - SAP for Retail - Community Wiki

SAP Retail Homepage: http://www.sap.com/industries/retail/index.epx

For more information, visit the Supply Chain Management homepage

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2021-9-23 翻译于住处。