Covid19：传染病模型SIR/SEIR的估计与拟合

github地址

Deterministic Model for Disease Spreading

Typical deterministic model for disease spreading includes SIR mode and SEIR model.

SIR model

The general SIR model takes $s$ as the ratio of susceptible people, $i$ as the infected people, $r$ as the recovered people. Then we have:
KaTeX parse error: No such environment: align at position 8: \begin{̲a̲l̲i̲g̲n̲}̲ &\frac{ds}{dt}…
Here, $\beta$ is the rate of transmission (transmissions per S-I contact per time), $\gamma$ is the rate of recovery (inverse of infectious period). We could solve these equation and get:
$$s=s_0{e}^{-\frac{\beta }{\gamma }r}$$
With $s+i+r=1$, we could drive:
$$\begin{gathered} \frac{dr}{dt}=\gamma (1-r-s_0{e}^{-\frac{\beta }{\gamma }r}) \\ t=\frac{1}{\gamma }{\int }_0^r\frac{du}{1-u-s_0{e}^{-\frac{\beta }{\gamma }u}} \end{gathered}$$
With the above equations, we could fit the lines of the rate of susceptible, infectious and recovered people and get the parameter estimation of $\gamma$ and $\beta$.

Also, we could drive their iteration form with $S=sN,I=iN,R=rN$ and let $c$ be the number of people one contact:
KaTeX parse error: No such environment: align at position 8: \begin{̲a̲l̲i̲g̲n̲}̲ & S_n=S_{n-1}-…

SEIR model

The general SEIR model takes $s$ as the ratio of susceptible people, $e$ as the exposed people, $i$ as the infected people, $r$ as the recovered people. Then we have:
KaTeX parse error: No such environment: align at position 8: \begin{̲a̲l̲i̲g̲n̲}̲ &\frac{ds}{dt}…

Here, $\beta$ is the rate of transmission (transmissions per S-I contact per time), $\gamma$ is the rate of recovery (inverse of infectious period), $\alpha$ is the rate of progression (inverse of incubation period). We could solve these equation and get:
$$s=s_0{e}^{-\frac{\beta }{\gamma }r}$$
With $s+e+i+r=1$, we could drive:
d r d t = γ ( 1 − e − r − s 0 e − β γ r ) t = 1 γ ∫ 0 r d u