本文为荷兰代尔夫特理工大学（作者：Joris Derksen）的硕士论文，共251页。
无线电探测和测距系统（雷达）是海军用于探测、跟踪和识别敌我目标的主要传感器，雷达系统对于感知周围战场环境信息是必不可少的。雷达的性能可以显著地受到系统部署环境的影响。在某些大气条件下，折射效应会导致电磁波传导（electromagnetic ducts）、雷达探测漏洞、跳跃盲区和/或阴影区增加。这些现象会导致战术上的优势和劣势。例如，其中一个优点是，电磁传导导致目标可检测范围扩大，从而提供更多的响应时间来对进入的敌对目标采取行动。其中一个缺点是，敌方目标在雷达漏洞和跳跃盲区仍然不能被探测到，这些区域通常与电磁传导效应共存。
由于自然环境可以显著地影响雷达性能，因此非常希望能够在真实的环境条件下评估雷达的性能。正确评估雷达作战性能能够使海军从战术优势中充分受益，并最小化伴随某些大气条件的不利因素的影响，也有助于避免错误的战场态势感知。
多年来，用于模拟雷达传播和性能的模型已经成熟，只要环境数据输入也足够精确，就能产生足够准确的结果。随着这些模型的成功开发，研究注意力转移到获取真实环境数据的方法。在远离海岸的快速水流上方的大气中，单垂直折射率分布足以进行准确的雷达性能评估，这样的分布可以很容易地通过单个无线电探空仪气球测量获得。然而，近海岸线在许多情况下需要三维（3D）折射率数据。在这些情况下使用单折射率分布可能导致错误的评估。
为评估雷达性能获取3D大气数据并不是没有挑战的。因此，根据大气条件获得输入数据所需的精度和分辨率，以充分准确地评估雷达性能是非常重要的。在通过数值天气预报(NWP)系统获得3D数据的情况下，通过对3D数据最小分辨率要求的评估，可以允许减小数据文件大小。目前，NWP数据文件太大，无法通过卫星通信（SATCOM）定期发送给海军舰船。这使得NWP数据的使用在一定程度上不适合于实际情况下的操作使用。
本文针对北海天气条件的不同情况，研究了水平和时间分辨率对雷达性能评估精度的敏感性，通过比较“地面真实”性能评估和“破坏”评估完成以上工作（这里的“破坏”是指人为降低精度的数据）。在本文中，地面真实性定义为基于高分辨率NWP HARMONIE4数据的采用雷达传播模型AREPS3（3.6版）进行的评估。然后将这些评估的真相与基于水平或时间分辨率降低的相同HARMONIE数据集的评估进行比较，使用多种测量精度进行比较。地面真实性的结果也与基于单垂直轮廓和标准大气廓线的评估进行了比较。本文分析了41种不同的场景，每种场景中的舰船位置、雷达部署方位和天气条件均不同。从KNMI可获取的数据中，具有不同的天气变化，如寒冷天气锋面（8x）、温暖天气锋面（8x）、暖区（1x）、相对暖空气在水中的平流、高气压系统和平静海面条件，这些数据都是北海地区全年中非常典型的气象数据。
真实的雷达性能评估是基于AREPS模型的，AREPS是一种先进的传播模型，用于计算诸如传播损耗与距离、高度的关系以及针对任何特定雷达、环境和目标的检测概率(覆盖率)。所有场景中都使用3300MHz中程监视雷达，目标为雷达截面2m2的小型战斗机，在AREPS中使用雷达和目标集成模型对雷达系统和目标进行建模。
为了获得以下的结论，原始HARMONIENWP数据需要被输入到AREPS模型中。因此，开发了一种新的环境模型，该模型适应HARMONIE NWP数据，从而适用于雷达性能评估，并且可以被AREPS使用。使用NWP输入数据模拟如下：沿传播路径集成垂直NWP轮廓到垂直轮廓上；用Monin-Obukhov相似理论（MOST）计算表面层的折射率分布；将上下轮廓的数据混合在一起。该模型提供了沿传播路径的真实折射率分布。虽然它适合于本论文的研究目的，但它尚未被验证用于实际操作使用。
将所需的大气数据转换为适合雷达性能评估的数据，获得地面真实值评估和不同实验场景的损坏评估，并进行比较，从而研究评估精度对数据输入分辨率的敏感性。结果表明，在寒冷或温暖天气锋面附近或温暖扇区条件下，基于单轮廓的评估与地面真实值相比具有良好的性能。因此，在这些情况下，由无线电探空仪测量的单轮廓数据足以满足雷达性能评估。
暖干空气在寒冷水面平流的情况下，性能评估的准确性受到粗分辨率的影响而显著降低。在实验中的九个场景里，只有一个场景下使用单轮廓数据能够满足评估要求；在其它八个场景中使用单轮廓数据都会导致错误的评估，如果依赖该类文件，可能会产生戏剧性的后果。例如，对150km以外的探测距离预测产生误差。显然，在这些情况下，必须获取3D大气数据。
高气压附近的评估结果与暖干空气流过寒冷水面的情况相似。在这些情况下，只有八个场景中的两个允许使用单轮廓来进行精确的雷达评估。
对七种场景进行了分析，预计这些场景不会发生电磁异常传播；这一预期是基于天气图的评估。在没有传播异常的情况下，单轮廓数据就足够了。在这七种场景中只有五个是正确的，因此，不能仅仅通过查看天气图来可靠地预测单轮廓数据是否足够。
将基于单轮廓的评估与基于标准轮廓的评估进行比较表明，一般来说，单轮廓比标准轮廓提供更准确的雷达性能评估。这意味着，当必须采用3D数据时，这两种评估都将出现显著的错误。
通过比较相同空间分辨率、不同时间条件下的地面真实数据与基于大气信息的评估结果，研究了评估精度对时间分辨率的敏感性。结果表明，在许多情况下，每24小时测量一次是不够的。然而，目前RNLN每24小时只进行一次大气测量。在许多情况下的时间分辨率要求不小于1小时。也就是说，在单轮廓数据满足要求的情况下，可以降低时间分辨率，并且在一些情况下可以降低到24小时。
在本文中，没有指出实际最低要求的分辨率，因为需要评估更多的真实场景；这些场景应该在雷达参数、目标参数和/或天气条件上有所不同。此外，所需的最小分辨率取决于所需的评估精度，这可能根据具体应用而变化。
除上述研究外，本文的其它目的是提供清晰易懂的雷达在非均匀大气中传播的文献，并就雷达性能评估结果向荷兰皇家海军（RNLN）提出建议。这篇论文可作为雷达传播特性的一般概述，也可作为教育中进一步研究的引言。对于RNLN，最重要的建议是开始使用NWP数据进行雷达性能评估。使用单一测量的折射率分布，这是目前的测试方法，可能导致错误的评估和潜在的戏剧性的操作后果。由于还没有定义最低要求的分辨率，因此建议使用当前可用大气(NWP)数据的最大分辨率，并且每小时更新一次数据，尽管这在逻辑上具有挑战性。
Within navies, radio detection and rangingsystems (radars) are the primary sensors for the detection, tracking andsometimes classification of friendly and hostile targets. They are essentialfor creating an operational picture of the surroundings and situationalawareness. The performance of radars can be significantly influenced by theenvironment in which the systems are deployed. Under certain atmosphericcondition refractive effects result in electromagnetic ducts, radar holes,skipping zones and/or increased shadow zones. These phenomena can lead totactical advantages and disadvantages. For example, an advantage is that ductslead to extended detection ranges thereby providing more response time to actagainst incoming hostile targets. A disadvantage is that hostile targets canremain undetected in radar holes and skipping zones that generally coexist withthe developed duct. As the environment can significantly affect the performanceof radars, it is highly desirable to be able to assess radar performance underprevailing conditions. The ability to assess radar performance allows navies tofully benefit from the tactical advantages and to minimise the effects of thedisadvantages that accompany certain atmospheric conditions. It also helps avoidfalse situational awareness. Over the years models for modelling radar propagation1and performance have matured to the extent that they produce sufficientlyaccurate results provided that the environmental data input is alsosufficiently accurate. With the successful development of these models attentionshifted to methods for obtaining this environmental data. In large air masses overfast bodies of water away from the coast a single vertical refractivity profilesuffices for accurate radar performance assessment. Such a profile can easilybe obtained by means of a single radiosonde balloon measurement. Nearcoastlines however three dimensional (3D) refractivity data is required in manycases. Using a single profile in these cases may result in
erroneous assessments. Obtaining 3D atmospheric data for radar assessmentpurposes does not come without challenges. Because of this, it is important toget a sense of the required accuracy and resolution of input data, depending onatmospheric conditions, to assess radar performance sufficiently accurate. Incases where 3D data is obtained by numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems,assessment of the minimal 3D data resolution requirement allows the reductionof data file size. Currently NWP data file sizes are too big to send to navyships by satellite communication (SATCOM) on a regular basis. This makes theuse of NWP data, to a certain extent, unsuitable for operational use. Thisthesis studies the performance assessment accuracy sensitivity to horizontaland temporal data resolution for different cases of North Sea weather conditions. This is done by comparing “groundtruth” radar performance assessments with “spoiled” assessment2.For this thesis, the ground truths are defined as the assessments computed bythe radar propagation model AREPS3 (version 3.6) on the basis of high resolutionNWP HARMONIE4 data. These truths are then compared to assessments based on setsof the same HARMONIE data which are reduced in horizontal or temporalresolution. Comparisons are made using several measures of accuracy. The groundtruths are also compared to the assessments based on a single vertical profileand a standard atmosphere profile. In total 41 different cases are analysed. Casescenarios differed in ship position, radar deployment azimuths and weatherconditions. In the available data from the KNMI, weather conditions variedbetween cold weather fronts (8x), warm weather fronts (8x), a warm sector (1x),advection of relatively warm air over water, high pressure systems and calmconditions, which is a fairly representative data set for the conditions overthe North Sea throughout the year. The actual radar performance assessments areobtained using AREPS. AREPS is an advanced propagation model that computes, forexample, propagation losses versus range and height and detection probabilities(coverage) versus range and height for any specific radar, environment andtarget combination. The radar used was for all scenarios a 3300 MHz medium rangesurveillance radar and the target was a small fighter with a radar crosssection of 2 m2. Theradar system and target were modelled using the integrated radar and targetmodel in AREPS. In order to acquiring the results that are summarised below,raw HARMONIE NWP data needed to be fed into AREPS. For this a new environmentalmodel was developed that adapts HARMONIE NWP data so that it is suitable forradar performance assessment and can be used by AREPS5. Using NWP input datathe model subsequently: integrates vertical NWP profiles to vertical profilesalong the propagation path; computes the refractivity profile of the surfacelayer using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST); and blends the lower andupper profiles together. The model provides realistic refractivity profilesalong the propagation path. Whilst it is suitable for the purpose of thisthesis, it is has not yet been validated for operational use. Converting therequired atmospheric data into data suitable for radar performance assessment, obtainingthe ground truth assessments and the spoiled assessments of the differentexamined scenarios and comparing these, allowed the assessment accuracysensitivity to data input resolution to be studied. Results show that in thereviewed cases near a cold or warm weather front or in a warm sector,assessments based on a single profile compared well with the ground truth.Hence, in these cases a single profile measured by, for example, a radiosondewill suffice for radar performance assessment. In scenarios where warm dry airadvected over cooler water the accuracy of the performance assessment decreasessignificantly at coarser resolutions. In only one of the nine scenarios a singleprofile sufficed. Using a single profile in the other eight scenarios resultedin erroneous assessment, which may have dramatic consequences if relied upon.For example, detection range prediction errors of over 150 km occurred. It is clear that in these casesacquiring 3D atmospheric data is a must. Results for assessments in thevicinity of high pressure systems were similar to that of the scenarios wherewarm dry advected over cooler water. In these cases only two out of the eight scenariosallowed the use of a single profile for accurate radar assessment. Sevenscenarios were analysed in which it was expected that no anomalous propagationwould occur. This expectation was based on the evaluation of the weathercharts. In the absence of propagation anomalies, it was also expected that inthese cases a single profile would suffice. This was true for only five out ofthe seven cases. Hence, one cannot dependably predict if a single profile willsuffice merely by looking at weather charts. Comparing assessments based on asingle profile to the assessments based on a standard profile showed that, ingeneral, a single profile provides more accurate radar performance assessmentsthan the standard profile. This said, when 3D data is a must, both assessments willbe significantly in error. Investigating the sensitivity of assessment accuracyto temporal resolution was done by comparing the ground truth to assessments basedon atmospheric data with the same spatial resolution but of a different time.The results show that a single measurement every 24 hours is not sufficient inmany cases. Current practice in the RNLN, however, is to carry out atmosphericmeasurements only once every 24 hours. In many of the viewed cases a temporal resolutionof no less than 1 hour is required. This said, in cases where a single profilesuffices the required temporal resolution can be reduced, and in some cases to24 hours. In this thesis no actual minimum required resolutions areestablished. To do so many more scenarios should be evaluated. These scenariosshould differ in radar parameters, target parameters and/or weather conditions.Also the minimum required resolution depends on the required accuracy which mayvary with application. Besides the research described above, other goals ofthis thesis were to provide clear and understandable documentation on radarpropagation through an inhomogeneous atmosphere and to give recommendations tothe Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) concerning radar performance assessment. Thisthesis can be used as a general overview on radar propagation, for educationalpurposes and as an introduction to further research. For the RNLN, the most importantrecommendation is to start using NWP data for radar performance assessment. Theuse of a single measured refractivity profile, which is current practice, canlead to erroneous assessments and potentially to dramatic operationalconsequences. As no minimum required resolution is yet defined, it isrecommended, although logistically challenging, that the maximum resolution ofavailable atmospheric (NWP) data is used and that the data is updated everyhour.
1 引言
2 雷达传播机制
3 对流层传播
4 雷达传播建模方法
5 环境建模
6 评估数据分辨率对灵敏度影响的方法
7 精度灵敏度与数据分辨率：结果、分析与讨论
8 结论与建议
9 对荷兰皇家海军操作使用的建议
附录A 雷达性能评估
附录B 相似性函数
附录C 实现MOST的MATLAB源码
附录D 实验场景设置
下载英文原文地址：
http://page2.dfpan.com/fs/6lcjf221c29116d9092/
更多精彩文章请关注微信号：
扫一扫
4924
被折叠的 条评论
为什么被折叠?
到【灌水乐园】发言
