IB Math HL Probability, Distribution章节学习笔记

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Chapter 18 Probability

Experimental probability

$\rm{Experimental\ probobility} = \rm{realative\ frequency} = \frac{\rm{particular\ outcome}}{\rm{number\ of\ totals}}$

Space union

Space unit $U$ : set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
e.g. For coin: $U = \{H, T\}$ ,
for die: $U = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\}$ ,
for two coins: $U = \{HH, HT, TH, TT\}$ ,
or dot-grid like:

  | | |
 T|-.-,-
 H|-.-.-
  |_|_|__
    H T

or Tree diagram

Theoretical probability

For an event $E$ contain equal likely possible results, probability of $E$ :
$\frac{n(E)}{n(U)}$

Complementary: two events are complementary if their probability add up to 1
$\to E \rm\ {and}\ E' \ \rm{are\ complementary\ events}$

Compound event

Depencency events

If $A$ and $B$ are two events that one’s occurance won’t affect another’s occurance, they are indepencency events,
$P(A\ and\ B) = P(A) \times P(B)$

Independency events

If $A$ and $B$ are two events that one’s occurance affect another, $A$ and $B$ are independent events,
$P(A\ and\ B) = P(A) \times P(B | A)$
$P (B ∣ A)$ means probability of $A$ given that $B$ occur.

Sampling with/without replacement

e.g. $U = \{R,R,R,B,B,Y\}$ . Get 2 from it. Ask: probability of ${R,R\}$
replacement:
$\frac{3}{3 + 2 + 1} \times \frac{3}{3 + 2 + 1} = \frac{1}{4}$
WITHOUT replacement:
$\frac{3}{3 + 2 + 1} \times \frac{2}{2 + 2 + 1} = \frac{1}{5}$

Bionomial probability

二项分布

For a die with four faces $U = \{R,R,B,B,B,B\}$ , row three times.
It has possible outcomes:
${R,R,R\}\\ \{R,R,B\}, \{R,B,R\}, \{B,R,R\}\\ \{R,B,B\}, \{B,R,B\}, \{B,B,R\}\\ \{BBB\}$

$P (3 R) : P (2 R 1 B) : P (2 B 1 R) : P (3 B) = 1 : 3 : 3 : 1$

For each die row: $\frac{1}{3}, P(B) = \frac{2}{3}$

If $E$ is an event with probability $p$ of occuring; its complementary event $E^{'}$ has probability $q - 1 - p$ of occuring, then probability generator for the various outcomes over $n$ independency trials is $p + q)^n$

for $n$ times trial which has outcome $E$ with probability $p$ and outcome $E^{'}$ with probability $q$ ,
$P(E\ occurs\ x\ times\ and\ E'\ occurs\ n-x\ times) = ^nC_x p^x q^{n - x}$

Explain: For $n$ trails, in particular $x$ trails $E$ occurs and in other trails $E^{'}$ occurs. the probobility is $p^x q^{n - x}$ . Since this specific $x$ trails can be any of the $n$ trails, there are $^nC_r$ possibilities. So the probability of $x$ times of $E$ and $n - x$ times of $E^{'}$ is $^nC_r p^x q^{n - x}$

Set and Venn diagram

venn_1
$\\ A \cup B = \{x | x \in A\ or\ x \in B\} \\ A \cap B = \{x | x \in A\ and\ x \in B\}$

When $\cap B = \phi$ , $A$ and $B$ are called mutually exclusive.

for event $A$ and $B$ :
$\cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)$
or
$P(either\ A\ or\ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(both\ A\ and\ B)$

If $A$ and $B$ are mutually exclusive,
$\cap B) = 0 \\ \therefore P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)$

For events $A$ and $B$ :
$\frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$

在这里插入图片描述
Proof:
$\begin{aligned} P(A | B) &= \frac{b}{b + c} \\ P(B) &= \frac{b + c}{a + b + c + d} \\ P(A \cap B) &= \frac{b}{a + b + c + d} \\ \therefore \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} &=\frac{b}{b + c} = P(A | B) \\ \\ \therefore P(A | B) &= \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \end{aligned}$

Independent event

Event $A$ and $B$ are independent if occurance of each one of them don’t affect the occurance of another. In this situation
$\begin{aligned} P(A | B) = P(A) \\ P(B | A) = P(B) \end{aligned}$

So
$\cap B) = P(A) \times P(B)$

Probability using P&C

e.g. randomly select 7 people from 8 boys and 7 girls
Probability $P$ of 4 boys and 3 girls:
$\frac{^8C_4 \times ^7C_3}{^{15}C_7}$

Bayes law

$U$ is partitioned into two mutually exclusive region: $A$ and its complementary $A^{'}$ . Then gove another event B.
在这里插入图片描述
We have
$\begin{aligned} P(A | B) &= \frac{P(B | A) P(A)}{P(B)} \\ or\ P(B) &= \frac{P(B | A) P(A)}{P(A | B)} \end{aligned}$

Proof:
$\begin{aligned} P(A | B) &= \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \\ P(B | A) &= \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} \\ P(A \cap B) &= P(B | A) P(A) \\ P(A | B) &= \frac{P(B | A) P(A)}{P(B)} \\ or\ P(B) &= \frac{P(B | A) P(A)}{P(A | B)} \end{aligned}$