信用卡诈骗分析

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最新推荐文章于 2024-07-20 17:12:48 发布
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信用卡诈骗分析

  • 归一化，删去相似属性
  • 样本不均衡：1.下采样 2.生成新样本 SMOTE
  • LogisticRegression函数使用l1时，要指定参数solver仅能够使用求解方式”liblinear"和"saga“
  • 混淆矩阵
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt


data = pd.read_csv("creditcard.csv")
data.head()
TimeV1V2V3V4V5V6V7V8V9...V21V22V23V24V25V26V27V28AmountClass
00.0-1.359807-0.0727812.5363471.378155-0.3383210.4623880.2395990.0986980.363787...-0.0183070.277838-0.1104740.0669280.128539-0.1891150.133558-0.021053149.620
10.01.1918570.2661510.1664800.4481540.060018-0.082361-0.0788030.085102-0.255425...-0.225775-0.6386720.101288-0.3398460.1671700.125895-0.0089830.0147242.690
21.0-1.358354-1.3401631.7732090.379780-0.5031981.8004990.7914610.247676-1.514654...0.2479980.7716790.909412-0.689281-0.327642-0.139097-0.055353-0.059752378.660
31.0-0.966272-0.1852261.792993-0.863291-0.0103091.2472030.2376090.377436-1.387024...-0.1083000.005274-0.190321-1.1755750.647376-0.2219290.0627230.061458123.500
42.0-1.1582330.8777371.5487180.403034-0.4071930.0959210.592941-0.2705330.817739...-0.0094310.798278-0.1374580.141267-0.2060100.5022920.2194220.21515369.990

5 rows × 31 columns

count_classes = pd.value_counts(data['Class'], sort = True).sort_index()
count_classes.plot(kind = 'bar')
plt.title('class')
plt.xlabel('Class')
plt.ylabel('Frequency')

Text(0, 0.5, 'Frequency')

在这里插入图片描述

from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler

# data['normAmount'] = StandardScaler().fit_transform(data['Amount'].reshape(-1,1))
data['normAmount'] = StandardScaler().fit_transform(data['Amount'].values.reshape(-1, 1))
data = data.drop(['Time','Amount'],axis = 1) #去掉不要的特征
data.head()
V1V2V3V4V5V6V7V8V9V10...V21V22V23V24V25V26V27V28ClassnormAmount
0-1.359807-0.0727812.5363471.378155-0.3383210.4623880.2395990.0986980.3637870.090794...-0.0183070.277838-0.1104740.0669280.128539-0.1891150.133558-0.02105300.244964
11.1918570.2661510.1664800.4481540.060018-0.082361-0.0788030.085102-0.255425-0.166974...-0.225775-0.6386720.101288-0.3398460.1671700.125895-0.0089830.0147240-0.342475
2-1.358354-1.3401631.7732090.379780-0.5031981.8004990.7914610.247676-1.5146540.207643...0.2479980.7716790.909412-0.689281-0.327642-0.139097-0.055353-0.05975201.160686
3-0.966272-0.1852261.792993-0.863291-0.0103091.2472030.2376090.377436-1.387024-0.054952...-0.1083000.005274-0.190321-1.1755750.647376-0.2219290.0627230.06145800.140534
4-1.1582330.8777371.5487180.403034-0.4071930.0959210.592941-0.2705330.8177390.753074...-0.0094310.798278-0.1374580.141267-0.2060100.5022920.2194220.2151530-0.073403

5 rows × 30 columns

#下采样解决样本不均衡

X = data.ix[:,data.columns != 'Class']
y = data.ix[:,data.columns == 'Class']

#class为1的个数和索引
number_records_fraud = len(data[data.Class == 1])
fraud_indices = np.array(data[data.Class == 1].index)

#class为0的索引
normal_indices = data[data.Class == 0].index

random_normal_indices = np.random.choice(normal_indices, number_records_fraud, replace = True)
random_normal_indices = np.array(random_normal_indices)

under_sample_indices = np.concatenate([fraud_indices, random_normal_indices])
under_sample_data = data.iloc[under_sample_indices, :]  #取值

X_undersample = under_sample_data.ix[:,data.columns != 'Class']
y_undersample = under_sample_data.ix[:,data.columns == 'Class']

print("Percentage of normal transactions: ", len(under_sample_data[under_sample_data.Class == 0])/len(under_sample_data))
print("Percentage of fraud transactions: ", len(under_sample_data[under_sample_data.Class == 1])/len(under_sample_data))
print("Total number of transactions in resampled data: ", len(under_sample_data))

Percentage of normal transactions:  0.5
Percentage of fraud transactions:  0.5
Total number of transactions in resampled data:  984

#划分数据集，交叉验证
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

#whole dataset
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size = 0.3, random_state = 0)

#undersample dataset
X_train_undersample, X_test_undersample, y_train_undersample, y_test_undersample = train_test_split(X_undersample, 
                                                                                                    y_undersample, 
                                                                                                    test_size = 0.3, 
                                                                                                    random_state = 0)

#Recall = TP/(TP+FN)
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.model_selection import KFold, cross_val_score
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix,recall_score,classification_report 

def printing_Kfold_scores(x_train_data,y_train_data):
    fold = KFold(5,shuffle=False) 

    # Different C parameters
    c_param_range = [0.01,0.1,1,10,100]

    results_table = pd.DataFrame(index = range(len(c_param_range),2), columns = ['C_parameter','Mean recall score'])
    results_table['C_parameter'] = c_param_range

    # the k-fold will give 2 lists: train_indices = indices[0], test_indices = indices[1]
    j = 0
    for c_param in c_param_range: #此循环找最好的c值，正则惩罚的权值
        print('-------------------------------------------')
        print('C parameter: ', c_param)
        print('-------------------------------------------')
        print('')

        recall_accs = []
        for iteration, indices in enumerate(fold.split(y_train_data),start=1):

            # Call the logistic regression model with a certain C parameter
            lr = LogisticRegression(C = c_param, penalty='l1',solver='liblinear')

            # Use the training data to fit the model. In this case, we use the portion of the fold to train the model
            # with indices[0]. We then predict on the portion assigned as the 'test cross validation' with indices[1]
            lr.fit(x_train_data.iloc[indices[0],:],y_train_data.iloc[indices[0],:].values.ravel())

            # Predict values using the test indices in the training data
            y_pred_undersample = lr.predict(x_train_data.iloc[indices[1],:].values)

            # Calculate the recall score and append it to a list for recall scores representing the current c_parameter
            recall_acc = recall_score(y_train_data.iloc[indices[1],:].values,y_pred_undersample)
            recall_accs.append(recall_acc)
            print('Iteration ', iteration,': recall score = ', recall_acc)

        # The mean value of those recall scores is the metric we want to save and get hold of.
        results_table.ix[j,'Mean recall score'] = np.mean(recall_accs)
        j += 1
        print('')
        print('Mean recall score ', np.mean(recall_accs))
        print('')

    best_c = results_table.loc[results_table['Mean recall score'].astype(float).idxmax()]['C_parameter']
    
    # Finally, we can check which C parameter is the best amongst the chosen.
    print('*********************************************************************************')
    print('Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter = ', best_c)
    print('*********************************************************************************')
    
    return best_c

best_c = printing_Kfold_scores(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample)

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.01
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.9452054794520548
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.9178082191780822
Iteration  3 : recall score =  1.0
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.972972972972973
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9848484848484849

Mean recall score  0.9641670312903191

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.1
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8493150684931506
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.863013698630137
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9661016949152542
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9324324324324325
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.8939393939393939

Mean recall score  0.9009604576820737

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  1
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.863013698630137
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8904109589041096
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9661016949152542
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9459459459459459
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.8939393939393939

Mean recall score  0.9118823384669682

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  10
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8767123287671232
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.9178082191780822
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9830508474576272
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9324324324324325
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9242424242424242

Mean recall score  0.9268492504155379

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  100
-------------------------------------------




Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8767123287671232
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.9178082191780822
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9830508474576272
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9324324324324325
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9242424242424242

Mean recall score  0.9268492504155379

*********************************************************************************
Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter =  0.01
*********************************************************************************


D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"
D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"
D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"
D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"
D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"
D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\ipykernel_launcher.py:37: FutureWarning: 
.ix is deprecated. Please use
.loc for label based indexing or
.iloc for positional indexing

See the documentation here:
http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#ix-indexer-is-deprecated

def plot_confusion_matrix(cm, classes,
                          title='Confusion matrix',
                          cmap=plt.cm.Blues):
    """
    This function prints and plots the confusion matrix.
    """
    plt.imshow(cm, interpolation='nearest', cmap=cmap)
    plt.title(title)
    plt.colorbar()
    tick_marks = np.arange(len(classes))
    plt.xticks(tick_marks, classes, rotation=0)
    plt.yticks(tick_marks, classes)

    thresh = cm.max() / 2.
    for i, j in itertools.product(range(cm.shape[0]), range(cm.shape[1])):
        plt.text(j, i, cm[i, j],
                 horizontalalignment='center',
                 color="red" if cm[i, j] > thresh else "black")

    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.ylabel('True label')
    plt.xlabel('Predicted label')

import itertools
lr = LogisticRegression(C = best_c, penalty = 'l1',solver='liblinear')
lr.fit(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample.values.ravel())
y_pred_undersample = lr.predict(X_test_undersample.values)

# Compute confusion matrix
cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test_undersample,y_pred_undersample)
np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

# Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
class_names = [0,1]
plt.figure()
plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                      , classes=class_names
                      , title='Confusion matrix')
plt.show()

Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.9319727891156463

在这里插入图片描述

lr = LogisticRegression(C = best_c, penalty = 'l1',solver='liblinear')
lr.fit(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample.values.ravel())
y_pred = lr.predict(X_test.values)

# Compute confusion matrix
cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test,y_pred)
np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

# Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
class_names = [0,1]
plt.figure()
plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                      , classes=class_names
                      , title='Confusion matrix')
plt.show()

Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.9115646258503401

在这里插入图片描述

best_c = printing_Kfold_scores(X_train,y_train)

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.01
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.4925373134328358
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.6027397260273972
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.6833333333333333
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.5692307692307692
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.45

Mean recall score  0.5595682284048672

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.1
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.5671641791044776
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.6164383561643836
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.6833333333333333
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.5846153846153846
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.525

Mean recall score  0.5953102506435158

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  1
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.5522388059701493
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.6164383561643836
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.7166666666666667
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.6153846153846154
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.5625

Mean recall score  0.612645688837163

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  10
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.5522388059701493
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.6164383561643836
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.7333333333333333
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.6153846153846154
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.575

Mean recall score  0.6184790221704963

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  100
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.5522388059701493
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.6164383561643836
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.7333333333333333
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.6153846153846154
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.575

Mean recall score  0.6184790221704963

*********************************************************************************
Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter =  10.0
*********************************************************************************

lr = LogisticRegression(C = best_c, penalty = 'l1',solver='liblinear')
lr.fit(X_train,y_train.values.ravel())
y_pred_undersample = lr.predict(X_test.values)

# Compute confusion matrix
cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test,y_pred_undersample)
np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

# Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
class_names = [0,1]
plt.figure()
plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                      , classes=class_names
                      , title='Confusion matrix')
plt.show()

Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.6190476190476191

在这里插入图片描述

lr = LogisticRegression(C = 0.01, penalty = 'l1',solver='liblinear')
lr.fit(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample.values.ravel())
y_pred_undersample_proba = lr.predict_proba(X_test_undersample.values)

thresholds = [0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9]

plt.figure(figsize=(10,10))

j = 1
for i in thresholds:
    y_test_predictions_high_recall = y_pred_undersample_proba[:,1] > i
    
    plt.subplot(3,3,j)
    j += 1
    
    # Compute confusion matrix
    cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test_undersample,y_test_predictions_high_recall)
    np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

    print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

    # Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
    class_names = [0,1]
    plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                          , classes=class_names
                          , title='Threshold >= %s'%i) 

D:\Anoconda\lib\site-packages\sklearn\base.py:451: UserWarning: X does not have valid feature names, but LogisticRegression was fitted with feature names
  "X does not have valid feature names, but"


Recall metric in the testing dataset:  1.0
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  1.0
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  1.0
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.9931972789115646
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.9319727891156463
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.891156462585034
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.8367346938775511
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.7551020408163265
Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.5850340136054422

在这里插入图片描述

import pandas as pd
from imblearn.over_sampling import SMOTE
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

credit_cards=pd.read_csv('creditcard.csv')

columns=credit_cards.columns
# The labels are in the last column ('Class'). Simply remove it to obtain features columns
features_columns=columns.delete(len(columns)-1)

features=credit_cards[features_columns]
labels=credit_cards['Class']

features_train, features_test, labels_train, labels_test = train_test_split(features, 
                                                                            labels, 
                                                                            test_size=0.2, 
                                                                            random_state=0)

#生成更多label为1的值
oversampler=SMOTE(random_state=0)
os_features,os_labels=oversampler.fit_sample(features_train,labels_train)

len(os_labels[os_labels==1])

227454

os_features = pd.DataFrame(os_features)
os_labels = pd.DataFrame(os_labels)
best_c = printing_Kfold_scores(os_features,os_labels)

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.01
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8903225806451613
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8947368421052632
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9688170853159235
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9578923071850166
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9583539420318528

Mean recall score  0.9340245514566435

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.1
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8903225806451613
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8947368421052632
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9698572535133341
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9597278552664842
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9527483760345566

Mean recall score  0.9334785815129599

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  1
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8903225806451613
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8947368421052632
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9705433218988603
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9603653510073532
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9604093162308613

Mean recall score  0.9352754823774998

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  10
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8903225806451613
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8947368421052632
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9705433218988603
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.9604093162308613
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9589144986315824

Mean recall score  0.9349853119023457

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  100
-------------------------------------------
Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.8903225806451613
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.8947368421052632
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.9704990594223747
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.960321385783845
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.9607060814895417

Mean recall score  0.9353171898892372

*********************************************************************************
Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter =  100.0
*********************************************************************************

lr = LogisticRegression(C = best_c, penalty = 'l1',solver='liblinear')
lr.fit(os_features,os_labels.values.ravel())
y_pred = lr.predict(features_test.values)

# Compute confusion matrix
cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(labels_test,y_pred)
np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

# Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
class_names = [0,1]
plt.figure()
plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                      , classes=class_names
                      , title='Confusion matrix')
plt.show()

Recall metric in the testing dataset:  0.900990099009901

在这里插入图片描述
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