论文速递 | Management Science 1月文章合集（下）

编者按

在本系列文章中，我们梳理了运筹学顶刊Management Science2024年1月份发布的28篇文章的基本信息，旨在帮助读者快速洞察行业最新动态。本文为第二部分。

文章1

● 题目：Understanding Cooperation in an Intertemporal Context

理解跨时空背景下的合作

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.03757

● 作者：Felix Kölle, Thomas Lauer 

● 发布时间：17 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Cooperation between individuals, a critical component of organizational and societal success, typically involves costs and benefits that accrue at different points in time. Using a series of controlled experiments, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of cooperation in an intertemporal context. Our findings demonstrate that cooperation is significantly reduced when the benefits of cooperation are shifted into the future, whereas delaying costs leads to an increase in cooperation. Our analysis of the underlying behavioral mechanisms reveals that the change in the level of cooperation can be explained by three factors: (i) a shift in the beliefs about others’ efforts, (ii) a shift in the willingness to conditionally cooperate, and (iii) an individual’s degree of impatience. We further find that injunctive norms of cooperation are unaffected by the timing of consequences, indicating that changes in behavior are due to a change in norm compliance rather than the norm itself. Implications for management practices are discussed.

个人之间的合作是组织和社会成功的重要组成部分，合作时通常涉及在不同时间点产生的成本和收益。本文通过一系列对照实验，全面分析了时际背景下合作的决定因素。我们的研究结果表明，当合作的收益被转移到未来时，合作会明显减少，而延迟成本到未来则会导致合作增加。我们对潜在行为机制的分析表明，合作水平的变化可以用三个因素来解释： (i) 对他人努力的信念的转变，(ii) 对有条件合作意愿的转变，以及 (iii) 个人的不耐烦程度。我们进一步发现，强制合作规范不会受到产生结果的时间的影响，这表明行为的改变是由于对规范遵守情况的改变而非规范本身。本文还讨论了这一发现对管理实践的启示。

文章2

● 题目：Do Credit Rating Agencies Learn from the Options Market?

信用评级机构能否从期权市场学到东西？

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4980

● 作者：Paul Brockman, Musa Subasi, Jeff Wang, Eliza Zhang 

● 发布时间：19 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Do credit rating agencies (CRAs) learn from the options market? We examine this question by exploring the relation between options trading activity and credit rating accuracy. We find that as options trading volume increases, credit ratings become more responsive to expected credit risk and exhibit greater ability to predict future defaults. We also find that CRAs rely more on the options market as a source of ratings-related information when firm default risk is higher, options trading is more informative, manager-provided information is of lower quality, and firm uncertainty is higher. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity tests, including alternative measures of options trading and credit rating accuracy. We reach similar inferences using various approaches to address endogeneity issues, including difference-in-difference analyses and an instrumental variables approach. Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that CRAs incorporate unique information from the options market into their rating decisions which, in turn, improves credit rating accuracy.

信用评级机构（CRA）会从期权市场中学习吗？我们通过探讨期权交易活动与信用评级准确性之间的关系来研究这个问题。我们发现，随着期权交易量的增加，信用评级对预期信用风险的反应更加灵敏，预测未来违约的能力也更强。我们还发现，当公司违约风险较高、期权交易信息量较大、管理者提供的信息质量较低以及公司不确定性较高时，信用评级机构更依赖期权市场作为评级相关信息的来源。我们的结果对许多敏感性测试（包括期权交易和信用评级准确性的替代措施）都是稳健的。我们使用各种方法来解决内生性问题，包括差分分析和工具变量法，都得出了类似的推论。总体而言，我们的研究结果与以下观点一致，即信用评级机构将期权市场的独特信息纳入其评级决策，进而提高了信用评级的准确性。

文章3

● 题目：Trust-and-Evaluate: A Dynamic Nonmonetary Mechanism for Internal Capital Allocation

信任与评估： 内部资本分配的非货币动态机制

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01121

● 作者：Shivam Gupta, Saurabh Bansal, Milind Dawande, Ganesh Janakiraman

● 发布时间：19 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

To stay competitive, firms regularly invest in innovation by supporting internal capital projects (funded and executed in-house) that explore new products and operational improvements. Each year, in a highly competitive process, managers from different functional units of the firm submit proposals (that include estimated costs and benefits) for such projects. Managers, because of their domain knowledge and expertise, are naturally better informed about the costs and benefits of their respective projects and can use this information strategically to secure funding. An example of such behavior is the under-reporting of the cost estimate of a project and subsequently requesting additional funding during the execution phase. Such strategic behavior not only affects the firm’s ability to fund the best projects but is also costly. Motivated by this challenge of deciding the funding of such projects at a global agribusiness firm, we seek a mechanism that is both provably near-optimal for the firm and guarantees truthful reporting from managers. Our setting consists of a principal and multiple agents. In each time period, over an infinite horizon, each agent requests funding for a potential project from the principal. Before submitting his proposal, each agent privately estimates the project’s cost and its benefit. If funded, each project is executed in one period. The principal’s funding decisions are binary; that is, each project is either funded in full or not funded. The actual cost (benefit) of a funded project is realized on its completion and incurred (earned) by the principal. The agents earn utility from the experience and reputation gained in completing projects. In each period, the principal desires to keep the total spend below a budget but can borrow external money at a cost. Our main contribution is a practically appealing dynamic nonmonetary mechanism for internal capital allocation under which, for any ϵ>0, (a) truth-telling forms an ϵ-Bayesian Nash equilibrium and (b) the principal’s expected utility is within ϵ of the expected utility in the first-best setting.

为了保持竞争力，公司定期投资创新，支持内部资本项目（由公司内部出资和执行），探索新产品和运营改进。每年，在激烈的竞争过程中，公司不同职能部门的管理人员都会提交此类项目的建议书（包括成本和效益估算）。经理们由于拥有领域知识和专业技能，自然更了解各自项目的成本和效益，并能战略性地利用这些信息来获得资金。开始的时候少报项目成本估算，然后在执行阶段申请额外资金，就是这种行为的一个例子。这种战略行为不仅会影响公司资助最佳项目的能力，而且代价高昂。在一家全球性农业综合企业中，决定这类项目的资金来源是一项挑战，受此激励，我们寻求一种机制，既能证明该企业接近最优，又能保证管理者如实报告。我们的环境由一个委托人和多个代理人组成。在无限期的每个时间段内，每个代理人都会向委托人申请一个潜在项目的资金。在提交提案之前，每个代理人都会私下估算项目的成本和收益。如果获得资助，每个项目都会在一个时间段内执行。委托人的资助决定是二元的，即每个项目要么得到全额资助，要么得不到资助。受资助项目的实际成本（收益）在项目完成时实现，并由委托人承担（赚取）。代理人从完成项目过程中获得的经验和声誉中赚取效用。在每个时期，委托人都希望总支出低于预算，但可以有偿借用外部资金。我们的主要贡献是为内部资本分配提供了一种具有实际吸引力的动态非货币机制，在这种机制下，对于任意ϵ>0，(a) 说真话会形成ϵ-贝叶斯纳什均衡，(b) 委托人的预期效用在first-best设置的预期效用的ϵ范围内。

文章4

● 题目：Big Fish in Small Ponds: Human Capital Migration and the Rise of Boutique Banks

小池塘里的大鱼： 人力资本迁移与精品投行的崛起

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03829

● 作者：Janet Gao, Wenyu Wang, Xiaoyun Yu

● 发布时间：19 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

We study the comparative advantage of firms with focused and multidivisional organizational forms at attracting valuable human capital. Using the merger and acquisition (M&A) advisory industry as a laboratory, we show that high-performing individuals are more likely to migrate to boutique (focused) banks, especially those who are still on the upward trajectory of their career. Such migration is amplified by the cross-subsidization inside bulge bracket (multidivisional) firms, proxied by poor performance of their non-M&A departments. The transition of skilled labor improves the performance of the boutique sector, potentially contributing to the rise of boutiques over the past two decades. Moreover, M&A deal outcomes differ when having boutique advisors. Our findings suggest that corporate organizational structure and labor migration can jointly shape industry dynamics.

我们研究了专注型组织形式和多部门组织形式的公司在吸引有价值的人力资本方面的比较优势。我们以并购咨询行业为实验对象，研究表明业绩优异的人才更有可能向精品投行迁移，尤其是那些仍处于职业上升期的人才。这种迁移由于（多部门）公司内部的交叉补贴（以其非并购部门的糟糕表现为代表）而被放大。熟练劳动力的转移提高了精品投行的业绩，这可能是过去二十年精品崛起的原因之一。此外，在拥有精品投行作为顾问的情况下，并购交易的结果也有所不同。我们的研究结果表明，企业组织结构和劳动力迁移可以共同塑造行业动态。

文章5

● 题目：Media Attention and Event-Based Grouping of Stocks: An Examination of Stocks Hyped by Media Outlets as Benefiting from the Olympics

媒体关注与基于事件的股票分组： 媒体炒作的奥运股票研究

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02218

● 作者：Patricia Dechow, Alastair Lawrence, Mei Luo, Ventsislav Stamenov 

● 发布时间：19 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

We examine five summer Olympics and identify stocks that media outlets hype as benefiting from the Olympics (Olympic stocks). There is a seven-year period from the time that a country first learns it has won the Olympic bid to the start of the games (Olympic time period). We predict that the excitement of the Olympics along with the greater media attention impacts the valuation and risk of Olympic stocks. Consistent with this prediction, we show that Olympic stocks earn higher returns than their matched counterparts and comove more strongly with each other over the Olympic time period. Olympic stocks also exhibit increases in trading volume and stock volatility on days when media outlets have stories linking the firm to the Olympic Games. However, we find no evidence that the Olympic Games translate into stronger fundamentals for Olympic firms or stronger fundamental comovements. These findings suggest that investors are not purchasing the stocks based on an analysis of fundamentals, but are purchasing them based on their Olympic attribute. To confirm that event-based groupings occur in other settings, we show that comovement increases for stocks classified by the media as “stay-at-home” stocks at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

我们研究了五届夏季奥运会，并找出了媒体炒作的奥运股票。从一个国家首次获知申奥成功到奥运会开幕有七年的时间（奥运时间段）。我们预测，奥运带来的兴奋和媒体的更多关注会影响奥运股票的估值和风险。与这一预测相一致的是，我们发现在奥运期间，奥运股票的回报率要高于他们的对手股票，而且它们之间的相关性更强。当媒体报道公司与奥运有关时，奥运股票的交易量和股票波动性也会增加。然而，我们没有发现任何证据表明奥林匹克运动会转化为奥运企业更强的基本面或更强的基本面协整性。这些发现表明，投资者并不是基于对基本面的分析来购买股票，而是基于其奥运属性来购买股票。为了证实在其他情况下也会出现基于事件的分组，我们发现，在 COVID-19 大流行开始时，被媒体归类为 "足不出户 "的股票的相关性会增加。

文章6

● 题目：Technology and Disintermediation in Online Marketplaces

在线市场的技术与脱媒

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02736

● 作者：Grace Y. Gu

● 发布时间：22 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

With the development of communication technology that makes online transactions easier, there is also an increased risk of disintermediation—sellers and buyers circumventing a platform to transact directly—in online two-sided marketplaces. Such disintermediation may lead to significant revenue loss for online platforms. However, it remains unclear how the characteristics of platforms affect their vulnerability to disintermediation. Using the blockade of Skype in mainland China as a natural experiment, this study examines how online communication technologies affect disintermediation and transaction outcomes in a large U.S. online freelance marketplace. The results show that restricting this alternative communication technology, which platforms struggle to monitor, reduces disintermediation by around 18%. This effect is potentially due to economic frictions in transactions, as the reduction in disintermediation is greater for high-transaction-cost jobs, such as time-sensitive jobs, communication-intensive jobs, and high-skilled jobs, as well as for cost-sensitive users, such as experienced users and personal users as opposed to enterprise users. With these results, platforms can reduce disintermediation risks when making investment and market entry decisions.

随着通信技术的发展，在线交易变得更加容易，但同时也增加了在线双面市场脱媒的风险，即卖方和买方绕过平台直接进行交易。这种脱媒可能导致在线平台的收入大幅减少。然而，平台的特点如何影响其对脱媒的脆弱性，目前仍不清楚。本研究以中国大陆封锁 Skype 为自然实验，探讨在线通信技术如何影响美国大型在线自由职业者市场的去中介化和交易结果。结果表明，限制这种平台难以监控的替代性通信技术，可将非中介化程度降低约 18%。这种效应可能是由于交易中的经济摩擦造成的，因为对于高交易成本的工作，如时间敏感型工作、通信密集型工作和高技能工作，以及对成本敏感的用户，如经验丰富的用户和个人用户（而非企业用户）来说，去中介化的减少幅度更大。有了这些结果，平台在做出投资和市场进入决策时就能降低脱媒风险。

文章7

● 题目：Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

偏好外部性估算器： 边界方法和 IV 的比较

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4977

● 作者：Xing Li, Wesley R. Hartmann, Tomomichi Amano

● 发布时间：23 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in favor of the IV approach. First, an econometric model of the data-generating process reveals that the border approach requires a set of identification assumptions that are not easily satisfied in practice: the ignorance of some payoff-relevant information and conflicting spatial correlation assumptions. The IV approach, in contrast, exhibits greater internal validity because it is derived from the model that generates the data. Second, the border approach suffers from representative issues when the true effect sizes are different between border and off-border regions. We use a common political advertising example to evaluate these estimators and suggest ways to evaluate or limit the above concerns, such as excluding localities that are a large share of the policy making region and evaluating spatial correlations of observables. We find the border approach’s representative issue to be substantial when the ignorance assumption is most plausible and observe that spatial correlations do not reflect those needed in the unobservables for consistency of the estimator. The IV, in contrast, does not exhibit concerns related to local average treatment effects. We also derive the specific conditions when the border approach can reduce bias relative to OLS.

本文根据 Waldfogel（2003 年）的直觉，采用统一框架对两种估计方法--边界方法和工具变量（IV）估计方法--进行了比较，其中识别变异来自 "偏好外部性"。我们强调了支持 IV 方法的两个方面。首先，数据生成过程的计量经济学模型显示，边界法需要一系列在实践中不易满足的识别假设：对某些报酬相关信息的无知以及相互冲突的空间相关性假设。相比之下，IV 方法的内部有效性更高，因为它是从产生数据的模型中推导出来的。其次，当边境地区和非边境地区的真实效应大小不同时，边境方法存在代表性问题。我们使用一个常见的政治广告案例来评估这些估计方法，并提出了评估或限制上述问题的方法，如排除在政策制定区域中占很大比例的地方，以及评估观测变量的空间相关性。我们发现，当无知假设最可信时，边界法的代表性问题很大，并且观察到空间相关性并不能反映估计器一致性所需的非观测变量的相关性。与此相反，IV 方法不存在与当地平均治疗效果相关的问题。我们还得出了边界法相对于 OLS 可以减少偏差的具体条件。

文章8

● 题目：“Zero Cost” Majority Attacks on Permissionless Proof of Work Blockchains

对无权限工作量证明区块链的 "零成本 "51%攻击

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02426

● 作者：Joshua S. Gans, Hanna Halaburda  

● 发布时间：23 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

The core premise of permissionless blockchains is their reliable and secure operation without the need to trust any individual agent. At the heart of blockchain consensus mechanisms is an explicit cost (e.g., mining cost) for participation in the network and the opportunity to add blocks to the blockchain. A key rationale for that cost is to make attacks on the network, which could be theoretically carried out if a majority of nodes were controlled by a single entity, too expensive to be worthwhile. We demonstrate that a majority attacker can successfully attack with a negative net cost when accounting for the mining rewards the attacker collects during the attack. This shows that the protocol mechanisms are insufficient to create a secure network, emphasizing the importance of socially driven mechanisms external to the protocol. At the same time, negative cost enables a new type of majority attack that is more likely to elude external scrutiny.

无权限区块链的核心前提是其可靠和安全的运行，无需信任任何单个代理。区块链共识机制的核心是参与网络和向区块链添加区块的明确成本。该成本的一个关键理由是，如果大多数节点由一个实体控制，理论上可以对网络进行攻击，但攻击成本太高，不值得。我们证明，如果算上攻击者在攻击过程中获得的挖矿奖励，51%攻击者可以成功地以负净成本进行攻击。这表明协议机制不足以创建一个安全的网络，从而强调了协议之外的社会驱动机制的重要性。同时，负成本使得一种新型的51%攻击更有可能躲过外部审查。

文章9

● 题目：Continuity of Care Increases Physician Productivity in Primary Care

持续护理可提高初级保健医生的工作效率

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02015

● 作者：Harshita Kajaria-Montag, Michael Freeman, Stefan Scholtes

● 发布时间：24 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Continuity of care, defined as an ongoing therapeutic relationship between a patient and a physician, is a defining characteristic of primary care. However, arranging a consultation with one’s regular doctor is increasingly difficult as practices face physician shortages. We study the effect of declining care continuity on the productivity of physicians by analyzing data of over 10 million consultations in 381 English primary care practices over a period of 11 years. Specifically, we examine whether a consultation with the patient’s regular doctor is more productive than with another doctor in the practice. Using statistical models that account for confounding and selection bias and restricting the sample to consultations with patients who had at least three consultations over the past two years, we find that the time to a patient’s next visit is on average 18.1% (95% confidence interval: 16.9%, 19.2%) longer when the patient sees the doctor they have seen most frequently over the past two years, while there is no operationally meaningful difference in consultation duration. The data show that the productivity benefit of care continuity is larger for older patients, patients with multiple chronic conditions, and patients with mental health conditions. We estimate that the total consultation demand in our sample could have fallen by up to 5.2% had all practices offered continuity of care at the level of the top decile of practices while prioritizing patients expected to yield the largest productivity benefits. We discuss operational and strategic implications of these findings for primary care practices and for third-party payers.

持续性医疗是指病人与医生之间持续的治疗关系，是初级医疗的一个显著特点。然而，由于医疗机构面临医生短缺问题，安排固定医生会诊变得越来越困难。我们通过分析英国 381 家初级医疗机构 11 年间超过 1000 万次会诊的数据，研究了医疗连续性下降对医生工作效率的影响。具体来说，我们研究了与患者的固定医生进行会诊是否比与诊所中的其他医生进行会诊更有效率。使用考虑了混杂因素和选择偏差的统计模型，并将样本限制在过去两年中至少就诊过三次的患者，我们发现，如果患者就诊的医生是过去两年中最常就诊的医生，那么患者下次就诊的时间平均会延长 18.1%（95% 置信区间：16.9%, 19.2%）。数据显示，对于老年患者、患有多种慢性疾病的患者和患有精神疾病的患者来说，连续性护理带来的收益更大。我们估计，如果所有医疗机构都能提供与排名前百分之十的医疗机构水平相当的连续性医疗服务，同时优先考虑预期能产生最大效益的患者，那么样本中的总就诊需求最多可减少 5.2%。我们讨论了这些发现对初级医疗实践和第三方支付者的操作和战略影响。

文章10

● 题目：Optimal Cross-Sectional Regression

最佳横截面回归

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4966

● 作者：Zhipeng Liao, Yan Liu, Zhenzhen Xie

● 发布时间：25 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Errors-in-variables (EIV) biases plague asset pricing tests. We offer a new perspective on addressing the EIV issue: instead of viewing EIV biases as estimation errors that potentially contaminate next stage risk premium estimates, we consider them to be return innovations that follow a particular correlation structure. We factor this structure into our test design, yielding a new regression model that generates the most accurate risk premium estimates. We demonstrate the theoretical appeal as well as the empirical relevance of our new estimator.

变量误差（EIV）偏差困扰着资产定价测试。我们提供了一个解决 EIV 问题的新视角：我们不将 EIV 偏差视为可能会污染下一阶段风险溢价估计的估计误差，而是将其视为遵循特定相关结构的回报创新。我们在测试设计中考虑了这一结构，从而得出了一个新的回归模型，该模型能产生最准确的风险溢价估计值。我们证明了我们的新估计器在理论上的吸引力和实证上的相关性。

文章11

● 题目：Participation vs. Effectiveness in Sponsored Tweet Campaigns: A Quality-Quantity Conundrum

赞助商推特营销活动中的参与度与有效性： 质量与数量的难题

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.01897

● 作者：Jing Peng, Christophe Van den Bulte 

● 发布时间：29 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

We investigate the participation and effectiveness of paid endorsers in sponsored tweet campaigns. We manipulate the financial pay rate offered to endorsers on a Chinese paid endorsement platform, where payouts are contingent on participation rather than engagement outcomes. Hence, our design can distinguish between variation in participation and variation in outcomes, even if people select to endorse only specific tweets. Also, the lack of compensation for effort allows one to attribute differences in outcomes to precontractual selection rather than postcontractual behavior. The main finding is that endorsers exhibited adverse selection. Several observed and unobserved endorser characteristics associated with a higher propensity to participate had a negative association with being an effective endorser given participation. This adverse selection results in a conundrum when trying to recruit a sizable number of high-quality endorsers. Only 9.5%–11.8% of the endorsers were above the median in both the propensity to participate and the propensity to be effective compared to a benchmark of 25% in the absence of any association. A simulation analysis of various targeting approaches that leverages our data of actual endorsements and outcomes shows that targeting candidate endorsers by scoring and ranking them using models taking into account adverse selection on observables improves campaign outcomes by 13%–55% compared to models ignoring adverse selection.

我们调查了在赞助推文活动中有偿代言人的参与度和有效性。我们在一个中国的有偿代言平台上操纵了向代言人提供的财务支付率，其中支付取决于参与度而不是参与结果。因此，即使人们选择只代言特定的推文，我们的设计也可以区分参与度的变化和结果的变化。此外，由于没有对努力进行补偿，我们可以将结果的差异归因于签约前的选择而非签约后的行为。主要发现是代言人表现出逆向选择。几个观察到的和未观察到的代言人特征与更高的参与倾向相关联，但在参与后作为有效代言人的倾向上却呈负相关。这种逆向选择导致了在试图招募大量高质量代言人时的困境。只有9.5%–11.8%的代言人在参与倾向和有效倾向上都高于中位数，而在没有任何关联的情况下，这个比例应为25%。利用我们实际代言和结果数据进行的各种定位方法的模拟分析显示，通过使用考虑到可观察到的逆向选择的模型对候选代言人进行评分和排名来改善活动结果，比起忽略逆向选择的模型，活动结果可以提高13%–55%。

文章12

● 题目：Online Advertising, Data Sharing, and Consumer Control

在线广告、数据共享和消费者控制

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03385

● 作者：Justin P. Johnson, Thomas Jungbauer, Marcel Preuss

● 发布时间：30 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Invoking a property rights approach, we examine how competition between advertising exchanges influences the targeting options that these exchanges make available to advertisers. When advertisers have strong property rights over data regarding consumers’ active purchase interests, competition between ad exchanges leads to too little sharing of data. This may harm consumers, who receive too few pertinent ads, and advertisers themselves can also be harmed due to a situation resembling a prisoner’s dilemma. We find that reallocating property rights to consumers, that is, giving them the right to opt out of tracking may also benefit consumers who allow tracking by altering the incentives of ad exchanges to offer improved targeting options. In addition, we show that initiatives by Apple and Google to limit third-party tracking and to introduce alternative tracking systems such as Google’s Topics might benefit consumers by weakening the data property rights of advertisers. Because more data are shared by default under such systems, this can be true even if these systems are less accurate than third-party tracking systems.

我们从产权角度出发，研究了广告交易所之间的竞争如何影响这些交易所向广告商提供的定向选择。当广告商对有关消费者主动购买兴趣的数据拥有强大的产权时，广告交易所之间的竞争就会导致数据共享过少。这可能会损害消费者的利益，因为他们收到的相关广告太少，而广告商本身也会因为类似囚徒困境的情况而受到损害。我们发现，将财产权重新分配给消费者，即赋予他们选择退出追踪的权利，也可以通过改变广告交易商提供更好的定向选择的动机，使允许追踪的消费者受益。此外，我们还表明，苹果和谷歌限制第三方追踪并引入替代追踪系统（如谷歌的Topics）的举措可能会削弱广告商的数据产权，从而使消费者受益。由于这些系统默认共享更多数据，因此即使这些系统的准确性低于第三方追踪系统，这种情况也会发生。

文章13

● 题目：Data Deserts and Black Boxes: The Impact of Socio-Economic Status on Consumer Profiling

数据沙漠和黑匣子： 社会经济地位对消费者特征分析的影响

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4979

● 作者：Nico Neumann, Catherine E. Tucker, Levi Kaplan, Alan Mislove, Piotr Sapiezynski

● 发布时间：31 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Data brokers use black-box methods to profile and segment individuals for ad targeting, often with mixed success. We present evidence from 5 complementary field tests and 15 data brokers that differences in profiling accuracy and coverage for these attributes mainly depend on who is being profiled. Consumers who are better off—for example, those with higher incomes or living in affluent areas—are both more likely to be profiled and more likely to be profiled accurately. Occupational status (white-collar versus blue-collar jobs), race and ethnicity, gender, and household arrangements often affect the accuracy and likelihood of having profile information available, although this varies by country and whether we consider online or offline coverage of profile attributes. Our analyses suggest that successful consumer-background profiling can be linked to the scope of an individual’s digital footprint from how much time they spend online and the number of digital devices they own. Those who come from lower-income backgrounds have a narrower digital footprint, leading to a “data desert” for such individuals. Vendor characteristics, including differences in profiling methods, explain virtually none of the variation in profiling accuracy for our data, but explain variation in the likelihood of who is profiled. Vendor differences due to unique networks and partnerships also affect profiling outcomes indirectly due to differential access to individuals with different backgrounds. We discuss the implications of our findings for policy and marketing practice.

数据经纪人使用黑盒方法对个人进行特征描述和细分，以进行广告定位，但往往效果参差不齐。我们从 5 个互补性实地测试和 15 个数据经纪人那里获得的证据表明，针对这些属性的分析准确性和覆盖范围的差异主要取决于分析对象。经济条件较好的消费者（如收入较高或生活在富裕地区的消费者）更有可能被分析，也更有可能被准确分析。职业状况（白领还是蓝领）、种族和民族、性别以及家庭安排往往会影响个人资料信息的准确性和可用性，尽管这因国家而异，也因我们考虑的是在线还是离线个人资料属性覆盖范围而异。我们的分析表明，成功的消费者背景分析可以从个人上网时间的长短和拥有的数字设备的数量来判断其数字足迹的范围。低收入者的数字足迹较窄，导致这些人成为 "数据沙漠"。供应商特征（包括分析方法的差异）几乎无法解释我们数据中分析准确性的差异，但可以解释谁被分析的可能性的差异。由于独特的网络和合作关系造成的供应商差异也会间接影响特征分析的结果，因为接触不同背景的个人的机会不同。我们将讨论我们的发现对政策和营销实践的影响。

文章14

● 题目：Transient Customer Response to Data Breaches of Their Information

临时客户对其信息数据泄露的反应

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01335

● 作者：Sumit Agarwal, Pulak Ghosh, Tianyue Ruan, Yunqi Zhang

● 发布时间：31 Jan 2024

● 摘要：

Cybersecurity breaches pose a substantial concern in the digital era. We investigate how customers respond to multiple unexpected data breaches of their information in India. Difference-in-differences estimates show that digital payments declined by 9% relative to cash payments immediately after an unexpected data breach in a food delivery platform, but the gap disappeared three months later. Customer entry and exit also exhibit weak, short-lived changes. Additional analyses on bank and online grocery data breaches uncover even weaker effects of data breaches. Our findings imply that the perceived benefits of convenience outweigh the costs of payment security risks.

在数字时代，网络安全漏洞是一个重大问题。我们调查了印度客户如何应对多次意外数据泄露事件。差分估计结果显示，在一个食品外卖平台发生意外数据泄露后，数字支付立即比现金支付下降了 9%，但三个月后差距消失了。客户进入和退出也表现出微弱、短暂的变化。对银行和在线食品杂货店数据泄露的其他分析发现，数据泄露的影响甚至更弱。我们的研究结果表明，人们对便利性的认知超过了支付安全风险的成本。