In statistics, a likelihood function (often simply the likelihood) is a function of the parameters of a statistical model, defined as follows: the likelihood of a set of parameter values given some observed outcomes is equal to the probability of those observed outcomes given those parameter values, i.e.
在统计学中,一个可能性函数(经常简称为可能性)是一系列统计学模型的参数组成的函数,定义如下:给定观测结果,该结果是由一系列参数值的可能性等同于该结果是由这些参数值引起的概率。
Likelihood functions play a key role in statistical inference, especially methods of estimating a parameter from a set of statistics.
可能性函数是统计学推断的关键,特别是通过一系列统计变量估值的时候。
In non-technical parlance, "likelihood" is usually a synonym for "probability." But in statistical usage, a clear technical distinction is made depending on the roles of the outcome or parameter.
非技术用语中往往会把“可能性”作为“概率”的近义词。但在统计学使用中,通过输出结果的作用来清楚区分这两个术语的不同。
- Use probability when describing a function of the outcome given a fixed parameter value.
- “Given that I have flipped a coin 100 times and it is a fair coin, what is the probability of it landing heads-up every time?"
- Use likelihood when describing a function of a parameter given a fixed outcome.
- "Given that I have flipped a coin 100 times and it has landed heads-up 100 times, what is the likelihood that the coin is fair?"
“可能性”用于描述通过一个固定结果来推测函数的参数