逻辑回归--信用卡欺诈检测(python)

1.数据集:284807 特征 31个 ,v1-v29 +amout+class( 分类 0 是非欺诈行为,1 是欺诈行为)。
2.查看样本分布规则:
这里写图片描述
0 是非欺诈行为,1 是欺诈行为 。
样本极度不平均 解决方案:
1.下采样 让0和1 样本一样小。同样少
2.上采样 对1样本生成数据,和0 样本一样多。同样多。
amout 数值分布差异较大,采用归一或标准化。

from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
data['normAmount'] = StandardScaler().fit_transform(data['Amount'].reshape(-1, 1))
data = data.drop(['Time','Amount'],axis=1)
data.head()

采用下采样:

X = data.ix[:, data.columns != 'Class']  #取出不包括 class其他的列
print(X)
y = data.ix[:, data.columns == 'Class']  #取出包括 class这一列

# Number of data points in the minority class
number_records_fraud = len(data[data.Class == 1])
fraud_indices = np.array(data[data.Class == 1].index)
print(fraud_indices)

# Picking the indices of the normal classes
normal_indices = data[data.Class == 0].index

# Out of the indices we picked, randomly select "x" number (number_records_fraud)
random_normal_indices = np.random.choice(normal_indices, number_records_fraud, replace = False)
random_normal_indices = np.array(random_normal_indices)

# Appending the 2 indices
under_sample_indices = np.concatenate([fraud_indices,random_normal_indices])

# Under sample dataset  定位
under_sample_data = data.iloc[under_sample_indices,:]

X_undersample = under_sample_data.ix[:, under_sample_data.columns != 'Class']
y_undersample = under_sample_data.ix[:, under_sample_data.columns == 'Class']

# Showing ratio
print("Percentage of normal transactions: ", len(under_sample_data[under_sample_data.Class == 0])/len(under_sample_data))
print("Percentage of fraud transactions: ", len(under_sample_data[under_sample_data.Class == 1])/len(under_sample_data))
print("Total number of transactions in resampled data: ", len(under_sample_data))

3.交叉验证: 切分测试集和训练集

from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split

# Whole dataset
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y,test_size = 0.3, random_state = 0)

print("Number transactions train dataset: ", len(X_train))
print("Number transactions test dataset: ", len(X_test))
print("Total number of transactions: ", len(X_train)+len(X_test))

# Undersampled dataset
X_train_undersample, X_test_undersample, y_train_undersample, y_test_undersample = train_test_split(X_undersample
                                                                                                   ,y_undersample
                                                                                                   ,test_size = 0.3
                                                                                                   ,random_state = 0)
print("")
print("Number transactions train dataset: ", len(X_train_undersample))
print("Number transactions test dataset: ", len(X_test_undersample))
print("Total number of transactions: ", len(X_train_undersample)+len(X_test_undersample))

对原始测试集和我们选的测试集都进行区分:
Number transactions train dataset: 199364
Number transactions test dataset: 85443
Total number of transactions: 284807

Number transactions train dataset: 688
Number transactions test dataset: 296
Total number of transactions: 984
4.模型评估
精度:数据样本分布不均,虽然很高,但很可能一个没检测出来,所以经常用recall

#Recall = TP/(TP+FN)
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.cross_validation import KFold, cross_val_score
from sklearn.metrics import confusion_matrix,recall_score,classification_report 
  1. 正则化 惩罚:L2 正则化
    机器学习中几乎都可以看到损失函数后面会添加一个额外项,常用的额外项一般有两种,一般英文称作ℓ1-norm和ℓ2-norm,中文称作L1正则化和L2正则化,或者L1范数和L2范数。

L1正则化和L2正则化可以看做是损失函数的惩罚项。所谓『惩罚』是指对损失函数中的某些参数做一些限制。对于线性回归模型,使用L1正则化的模型建叫做Lasso回归,使用L2正则化的模型叫做Ridge回归(岭回归)。下图是Python中Lasso回归的损失函数,式中加号后面一项α||w||1
即为L1正则化项。
L1正则化是指权值向量w中各个元素的绝对值之和,通常表示为||w||1
L2正则化是指权值向量w
中各个元素的平方和然后再求平方根(可以看到Ridge回归的L2正则化项有平方符号),通常表示为||w||2。一般都会在正则化项之前添加一个系数,Python中用α表示,一些文章也用λ表示。这个系数需要用户指定。

那添加L1和L2正则化有什么用?下面是L1正则化和L2正则化的作用,这些表述可以在很多文章中找到。

L1正则化可以产生稀疏权值矩阵,即产生一个稀疏模型,可以用于特征选择
L2正则化可以防止模型过拟合(overfitting);一定程度上,L1也可以防止过拟合
def printing_Kfold_scores(x_train_data,y_train_data):
    fold = KFold(len(y_train_data),5,shuffle=False) 

    # Different C parameters
    c_param_range = [0.01,0.1,1,10,100]

    results_table = pd.DataFrame(index = range(len(c_param_range),2), columns = ['C_parameter','Mean recall score'])
    results_table['C_parameter'] = c_param_range

    # the k-fold will give 2 lists: train_indices = indices[0], test_indices = indices[1]
    j = 0
    for c_param in c_param_range:
        print('-------------------------------------------')
        print('C parameter: ', c_param)
        print('-------------------------------------------')
        print('')

        recall_accs = []
        for iteration, indices in enumerate(fold,start=1):

            # Call the logistic regression model with a certain C parameter
            lr = LogisticRegression(C = c_param, penalty = 'l1')

            # Use the training data to fit the model. In this case, we use the portion of the fold to train the model
            # with indices[0]. We then predict on the portion assigned as the 'test cross validation' with indices[1]
            lr.fit(x_train_data.iloc[indices[0],:],y_train_data.iloc[indices[0],:].values.ravel())

            # Predict values using the test indices in the training data
            y_pred_undersample = lr.predict(x_train_data.iloc[indices[1],:].values)

            # Calculate the recall score and append it to a list for recall scores representing the current c_parameter
            recall_acc = recall_score(y_train_data.iloc[indices[1],:].values,y_pred_undersample)
            recall_accs.append(recall_acc)
            print('Iteration ', iteration,': recall score = ', recall_acc)

        # The mean value of those recall scores is the metric we want to save and get hold of.
        results_table.ix[j,'Mean recall score'] = np.mean(recall_accs)
        j += 1
        print('')
        print('Mean recall score ', np.mean(recall_accs))
        print('')

    best_c = results_table.loc[results_table['Mean recall score'].idxmax()]['C_parameter']

    # Finally, we can check which C parameter is the best amongst the chosen.
    print('*********************************************************************************')
    print('Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter = ', best_c)
    print('*********************************************************************************')

    return best_c

结果如图所示:

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.01
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.958904109589
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.917808219178
Iteration  3 : recall score =  1.0
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.972972972973
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.954545454545

Mean recall score  0.960846151257

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  0.1
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.835616438356
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.86301369863
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.915254237288
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.932432432432
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.878787878788

Mean recall score  0.885020937099

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  1
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.835616438356
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.86301369863
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.966101694915
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.945945945946
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.893939393939

Mean recall score  0.900923434357

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  10
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.849315068493
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.86301369863
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.966101694915
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.959459459459
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.893939393939

Mean recall score  0.906365863087

-------------------------------------------
C parameter:  100
-------------------------------------------

Iteration  1 : recall score =  0.86301369863
Iteration  2 : recall score =  0.86301369863
Iteration  3 : recall score =  0.966101694915
Iteration  4 : recall score =  0.959459459459
Iteration  5 : recall score =  0.893939393939

Mean recall score  0.909105589115

*********************************************************************************
Best model to choose from cross validation is with C parameter =  0.01
*********************************************************************************

6.混淆矩阵
下采样问题:误差太多了。
https://blog.csdn.net/fjssharpsword/article/details/79104071

def plot_confusion_matrix(cm, classes,
                          title='Confusion matrix',
                          cmap=plt.cm.Blues):
    """
    This function prints and plots the confusion matrix.
    """
    plt.imshow(cm, interpolation='nearest', cmap=cmap)
    plt.title(title)
    plt.colorbar()
    tick_marks = np.arange(len(classes))
    plt.xticks(tick_marks, classes, rotation=0)
    plt.yticks(tick_marks, classes)

    thresh = cm.max() / 2.
    for i, j in itertools.product(range(cm.shape[0]), range(cm.shape[1])):
        plt.text(j, i, cm[i, j],
                 horizontalalignment="center",
                 color="white" if cm[i, j] > thresh else "black")

    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.ylabel('True label')
    plt.xlabel('Predicted label')
    plt.show()
import itertools
lr = LogisticRegression(C = best_c, penalty = 'l1')
lr.fit(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample.values.ravel())
y_pred_undersample = lr.predict(X_test_undersample.values)

# Compute confusion matrix
cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test_undersample,y_pred_undersample)
np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

# Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
class_names = [0,1]
plt.figure()
plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                      , classes=class_names
                      , title='Confusion matrix')
plt.show()

7.threshold 参数
调整逻辑回归阈值 看哪个参数最合适,可以调整。

lr = LogisticRegression(C = 0.01, penalty = 'l1')
lr.fit(X_train_undersample,y_train_undersample.values.ravel())
y_pred_undersample_proba = lr.predict_proba(X_test_undersample.values)

thresholds = [0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9]

plt.figure(figsize=(10,10))

j = 1
for i in thresholds:
    y_test_predictions_high_recall = y_pred_undersample_proba[:,1] > i

    plt.subplot(3,3,j)
    j += 1

    # Compute confusion matrix
    cnf_matrix = confusion_matrix(y_test_undersample,y_test_predictions_high_recall)
    np.set_printoptions(precision=2)

    print("Recall metric in the testing dataset: ", cnf_matrix[1,1]/(cnf_matrix[1,0]+cnf_matrix[1,1]))

    # Plot non-normalized confusion matrix
    class_names = [0,1]
    plot_confusion_matrix(cnf_matrix
                          , classes=class_names
                          , title='Threshold >= %s'%i) 

8.上采样
SMOTE 算法:少数类 扩展成大样本。

明天再看。。。

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