matlab 灰色Verhulst预测模型

灰色Verhulst预测模型

clc,clear;
x0=[4.93 2.33 3.87 4.35 6.63 7.15 5.37 6.39 7.81 8.35];
x1=cumsum(x0);
n=length(x0);
z=0.5*(x1(2:n)+x1(1:n-1));
B=[-z',z'.^2];
Y=x0(2:end)';
u=B\Y
syms x(t)
x=dsolve(diff(x)+u(1)*x==u(2)*x^2,x(0)==x0(1));
xt=vpa(x,6)
yuce=subs(x,t,[0:n-1]);
yuce=double(yuce)
x0_hat=[yuce(1),diff(yuce)]
epsilon=x0-x0_hat
delta=abs(epsilon./x0)
writematrix([x0',x0_hat',epsilon',delta'],'data.xlsx')

result

u =

 -0.35763

-0.0041037

xt =

43.5735tanh(0.178813t - 1.40701) + 43.5735

yuce =

     4.93       6.8822       9.5179           13       17.468       22.996       29.533        36.86       44.597        52.27

x0_hat =

     4.93       1.9522       2.6357       3.4816       4.4686       5.5283       6.5364       7.3268       7.7374       7.6734

epsilon =

        0      0.37782       1.2343      0.86836       2.1614       1.6217      -1.1664     -0.93675      0.07257      0.67662

delta =

        0      0.16216      0.31894      0.19962        0.326      0.22681       0.2172       0.1466    0.0092919     0.081033