Machine Learning Yearning(3、4)

NG的机器学习教程,第三章:预备知识和注释;第四章:规模驱使机器学习前进。
完整手稿翻译详见:https://github.com/xiaqunfeng/machine-learning-yearning

Chapter 3、Prerequisites and Notation

预备知识和注释
​ 如果你有学习过机器学习课程,比如我在Coursera上的的机器学习MOOC,或者如果你有应用监督学习的经验,你也将能够理解这段文字。
​ 我假设你熟悉监督学习(supervised learning):使用标记的训练样本(x,y)去学习一个从x映射到y的函数。 监督学习算法包括线性回归(linear regression),逻辑回归(logistic regression)和神经网络(neural networks)。 机器学习的形式有很多,但是现如今大部分机器学习的实用价值来自于监督学习。
​ 我将经常提到神经网络(也称为“deep learning”)。你只需要遵循本问对它是什么有一个基本的理解就可以了。
​ 如果您不熟悉这里提到的概念,请观看在Coursera上前三周 机器学习视频课程http://ml-class.org

这里写图片描述

Chapter 4、Scale drives machine learning progress

规模驱使机器学习前进

深度学习(神经网络)的许多想法已经存在几十年了。 为什么这些想法现在才火起来?
最近得以进步的最大驱动因素有两个:

  • 数据可用性。 人们现在在数字设备(笔记本电脑,移动设备)上花费更多的时间。这些活动产生大量的数据,我们可以使用这些数据来训练和反馈我们的学习算法。
  • 计算尺度。 我们几年前才开始能够训练足够大的神经网络,以利用我们现在拥有的巨大的数据集。

具体来说,即使你积累了更多的数据,通常传统学习算法(如逻辑回归)的性能表现“平稳”。这意味着它的学习曲线“平坦”,即使你给它更多的数据,算法也不会再有提升效果。

这里写图片描述

这就好像传统的算法不知道如何处理我们现在拥有的所有数据。
如果你在同一个监督学习任务上训练一个小的神经网络(NN),你可能会获得略好一点的性能:

这里写图片描述

这里,“小的神经网络”是指仅具有少量隐藏单位/层/参数的神经网络。 最后,如果你训练越来越大的神经网络,你可以获得更好的性能:[1]

这里写图片描述

因此,当你做到下面两点的时候你会获得最佳的性能(i)训练一个非常大的神经网络,使其在上面的绿色曲线上; (ii)有大量的数据。
许多其他细节,如神经网络架构也很重要,这里已经有很多创新。 但是现在提高算法性能的更可靠的方法之一仍然是(i)训练更大的网络和(ii)获得更多的数据。
如何完成(i)和(ii)的方法是极其复杂的。 这本书将详细讨论细节。 我们将从对传统学习算法和神经网络都有用的一般策略开始,并建立构建深度学习系统所需的最先进策略。

[1]这个图表展示了NN在小数据集下做得更好。这种效果不如NNs在大数据集中表现良好的效果一致。 在小数据系统中,取决于特征是如何手工设计的,传统算法可能做的很好,也可能做得并不好。 例如,如果你有20个训练样本,那么使用逻辑回归还是神经网络可能并不重要; 手工特征的选择将比算法的选择产生更大的影响。 但如果你有100万的样本,我更倾向于神经网络。

Table of Contents (draft) Why Machine Learning Strategy 4 ........................................................................................... How to use this book to help your team 6 ................................................................................ Prerequisites and Notation 7 .................................................................................................... Scale drives machine learning progress 8 ................................................................................ Your development and test sets 11 ............................................................................................ Your dev and test sets should come from the same distribution 13 ........................................ How large do the dev/test sets need to be? 15 .......................................................................... Establish a single-number evaluation metric for your team to optimize 16 ........................... Optimizing and satisficing metrics 18 ..................................................................................... Having a dev set and metric speeds up iterations 20 ............................................................... When to change dev/test sets and metrics 21 .......................................................................... Takeaways: Setting up development and test sets 23 .............................................................. Build your first system quickly, then iterate 25 ........................................................................ Error analysis: Look at dev set examples to evaluate ideas 26 ................................................ Evaluate multiple ideas in parallel during error analysis 28 ................................................... If you have a large dev set, split it into two subsets, only one of which you look at 30 ........... How big should the Eyeball and Blackbox dev sets be? 32 ...................................................... Takeaways: Basic error analysis 34 .......................................................................................... Bias and Variance: The two big sources of error 36 ................................................................. Examples of Bias and Variance 38 ............................................................................................ Comparing to the optimal error rate 39 ................................................................................... Addressing Bias and Variance 41 .............................................................................................. Bias vs. Variance tradeoff 42 ..................................................................................................... Techniques for reducing avoidable bias 43 .............................................................................. Techniques for reducing Variance 44 ....................................................................................... Error analysis on the training set 46 ........................................................................................ Diagnosing bias and variance: Learning curves 48 ................................................................. Plotting training error 50 .......................................................................................................... Interpreting learning curves: High bias 51 ............................................................................... Interpreting learning curves: Other cases 53 .......................................................................... Plotting learning curves 55 ....................................................................................................... Why we compare to human-level performance 58 .................................................................. How to define human-level performance 60 ........................................................................... Surpassing human-level performance 61 ................................................................................ Why train and test on different distributions 63 ...................................................................... Page!2 Machine Learning Yearning-Draft V0.5 Andrew NgWhether to use all your data 65 ................................................................................................ Whether to include inconsistent data 67 .................................................................................. Weighting data 68 .................................................................................................................... Generalizing from the training set to the dev set 69 ................................................................ Addressing Bias and Variance 71 ............................................................................................. Addressing data mismatch 72 ................................................................................................... Artificial data synthesis 73 ........................................................................................................ The Optimization Verification test 76 ...................................................................................... General form of Optimization Verification test 78 ................................................................... Reinforcement learning example 79 ......................................................................................... The rise of end-to-end learning 82 ........................................................................................... More end-to-end learning examples 84 .................................................................................. Pros and cons of end-to-end learning 86 ................................................................................ Learned sub-components 88 .................................................................................................... Directly learning rich outputs 89 .............................................................................................. Error Analysis by Parts 93 ....................................................................................................... Beyond supervised learning: What’s next? 94 ......................................................................... Building a superhero team - Get your teammates to read this 96 ........................................... Big picture 98 ............................................................................................................................ Credits 99
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