城市研究SCI杂志论文概览_第3期

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最新推荐文章于 2024-08-21 14:23:48 发布

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原文链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0MDU3NTYyOA==&mid=2247487249&idx=1&sn=6ea6d3c0fa1c73431a382ac11b251707&chksm=c2ded1f2f5a958e460db3d6f576e02c99d07d99e4cb5f48e7d426b835eb8bd9f8695c38311f0&token=1019108191&lang=zh_CN#rd

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本次给大家整理的是《Sustainable Cities and Society》杂志2024年9月第110期的论文的题目和摘要，一共包括9篇SCI论文！

【论文1】

Assessing the effectiveness of improving urban air quality with solutions based on technology, nature and policy

通过基于技术、性质和政策的解决方案，评估改善城市空气质量的有效性

【摘要】

Using smog-free towers (SFTs) for improving urban air quality poses an interesting tradeoff between cleaning the air and increasing pollution near power generating stations that supply electricity to the SFTs. This tradeoff changes significantly with variations in power-generating sources. Therefore, options of wind-powered, solar-powered, nuclear-powered, and grid-powered SFTs were evaluated for Delhi, India. The results show that only wind-powered SFTs have [health benefits (HB)] / [health cost (HC)] more than 1 (= 3.98 and 4.20 for mechanical and electrostatic SFTs) over annual operation. If SFTs are operated only in winter months, HB/HC > 1 (= 1.3 and 8.5 for mechanical SFT) is obtained for solar- and wind-powered SFTs. However, an economic analysis was done by comparing health benefits to total costs for the ecological option of vegetation and the policy-based option of odd-even vehicle rationing which do not have health costs associated. The analysis suggests that none of the approaches have higher health benefits than the total cost (TC) and the employment of vegetation to mitigate air pollution is the most cost-effective method of pollution mitigation (HB/TC = 0.08 and 0.075 for annual and cold month operation). This suggests that the maximum possible pollution should be removed at the source itself.

【摘要翻译】

使用无烟雾塔（SFTs）来改善城市空气质量，在清洁空气和在向SFTs提供电力的发电站附近增加污染之间提出了一个有趣的权衡。这种权衡会随着发电源的变化而发生显著变化。因此，我们对印度德里的风能、太阳能、核能和电网驱动的sft选项进行了评估。结果显示，只有风电机组的健康效益/健康成本比机械和静电机组超过1（=分别为3.98和4.20）。如果SFTs仅在冬季运行，则太阳能和风力发电的SFTs可获得HB/HC>1（机械SFT的=1.3和8.5）。然而，通过比较植被的生态选择和基于政策的奇偶车辆配给选择的总成本，进行了经济分析，这些选择没有健康成本。分析表明，没有一种方法的健康效益都高于总成本（TC），利用植被减轻空气污染是最具成本效益的污染缓解方法（HB/TC =每月运行0.08和0.075）。这表明，最大可能的污染应该从源头本身消除。

【作者信息】

Ahteshamul Haq, 化工学系, 印度理工学院，印度德里分校, 豪兹·卡斯 110016, 豪兹·卡斯, 印度

Bhavik R. Bakshi, 物质工程学院, 运输和能源, 亚利桑那州立大学, 美国

Hariprasad Kodamana, 化工学系, 印度理工学院，印度德里分校, 豪兹·卡斯110016, 豪兹·卡斯, 印度；雅尔迪人工智能学院, 印度理工学院，印度德里分校, 豪兹·卡斯 110016, 豪兹·卡斯, 印度

Manojkumar Ramteke, 化工学系, 印度理工学院，印度德里分校, 豪兹·卡斯110016, 豪兹·卡斯, 印度；雅尔迪人工智能学院, 印度理工学院，印度德里分校, 豪兹·卡斯 110016, 豪兹·卡斯, 印度

【论文2】

Research on the temporal and spatial pattern evolution characteristics and decoupling effect of electricity power consumption in China

我国电力消耗的时空格局演化特征及解耦效应的研究

【摘要】

Exploring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of electricity power consumption in China is of great significance and value for the promotion of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Strategy and the scientific allocation of electricity resources. Therefore, this paper takes China as an example and innovatively applies nighttime light data from a combination of two remote sensing satellites. And using spatial analysis methods to analyze the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of electricity power consumption over a longer study time series. Meanwhile, this paper also uses the Tapio decoupling model to study the decoupling effect of electricity power consumption and economic growth in China. The results of the study show that, during the period 2000–2019, China's electricity power consumption was in an unbalanced state, with the eastern coastal region dominating. It also formed a gradient distribution from the coastal area to the inland area. In terms of spatial connection, it shows an unbalanced distribution pattern of “low in the west and high in the east”. In addition, the spatial linkage of electricity power consumption among provinces is more than 93 % of weak linkage, and gradually increases to 97 %, indicating that the spatial linkage of electricity power consumption among regions is gradually weakening. The decoupling state of electricity power consumption in China is characterized by two types of decoupling: Weak decoupling and Expansive coupling. The decoupling status has experienced a significant change from 84 % of provinces being Expansive coupling to 100 % of provinces being Weak decoupling.

【摘要翻译】

探索我国电力消费时空格局的演变，对于推进碳峰值和碳中和战略和电力资源的科学配置具有重要意义和价值。因此，本文以中国为例，创新性地应用了两颗遥感卫星组合的夜间光数据。并利用空间分析方法分析了在较长的研究时间序列中电力消耗的时空格局的演变。同时，本文还利用Tapio解耦模型研究了我国电力消费与经济增长的解耦效应。研究结果显示，在2000-2019年期间，中国的电力消耗处于不平衡状态，以东部沿海地区为主。它也形成了从沿海地区到内陆地区的梯度分布。在空间连接方面，表现出“西低东高”的不平衡分布格局。此外，省间用电的空间连锁占弱连锁的93 %以上，并逐渐增加到97 %，说明区域间用电的空间连锁正在逐渐减弱。我国电力消耗的解耦状态具有两种解耦的特征：弱解耦和膨胀耦合。脱钩状态经历了显著变化，从84 %的省份扩张耦合到100 %的省份弱解耦。

【作者及邮箱】

Xinyu Shi, 地理科学学院, 湖南师范大学, 长长沙, 湖南 410081, 中国

Yang Zhong, 地理科学学院, 湖南师范大学, 长长沙, 湖南 410081, 中国, zhongyang821@hunnu.edu.cn

【论文3】

Navigating legal pathways for accelerating urban energy transition: A comprehensive deep analysis of photovoltaic power prediction and policy instruments

加快城市能源转型的法律路径：光伏发电预测和政策工具的全面深入分析

【摘要】

This research proposes a navigation method that explores how to accelerate urban energy transformation through legal means from the perspective of energy law, in order to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic output power prediction in sustainable energy transformation. Firstly, a deep learning model based on adversarial autoencoder (AAE) architecture was introduced to predict photovoltaic output power according to clean environment policies. Secondly, in order to effectively fine tune the parameters of AAE, a heuristic optimization method based on the Imperial Competition Algorithm was proposed to optimize the AAE configuration to adapt to the unique characteristics of photovoltaic systems, thereby improving prediction accuracy. In addition, the study analyzed the challenges and opportunities faced by current urban energy transformation, and then proposed sustainable ways to accelerate urban energy transformation from the aspects of formulating transformation plans, promoting technological innovation, promoting green transportation, promoting building energy conservation, and developing circular economy. The synergistic effect of deep learning and heuristic optimization, combined with strict stability and sensitivity assessment, puts this research at the forefront of advancing photovoltaic output power prediction methods, which is of great significance for optimizing renewable energy utilization and grid integration.

【摘要翻译】

本研究提出了一种导航方法，从能源规律的角度探讨如何通过法律手段加速城市能源的转型，以提高可持续能源转型中光伏输出功率预测的准确性。首先，引入了一种基于对抗式自动编码器（AAE）架构的深度学习模型，根据清洁环境策略预测光伏输出功率。其次，为了有效地微调AAE的参数，提出了一种基于帝国竞争算法的启发式优化方法来优化AAE的配置，以适应光伏系统的独特特性，从而提高预测精度。此外，本研究分析了当前城市能源转型面临的挑战和机遇，从制定转型规划、促进技术创新、促进绿色交通、促进建筑节能、发展循环经济等方面提出了可持续加快城市能源转型的途径。深度学习和启发式优化的协同效应，结合严格的稳定性和灵敏度评估，使本研究处于推进光伏输出功率预测方法的前沿，对优化可再生能源利用和电网集成具有重要意义。

【作者及邮箱】

Lei Liu, 广州商学院, 广州，511363, 中国，sangwun3@gmail.com

Kun Sheng, 广州商学院, 广州，511363, 中国

【论文4】

Self-adaptive metaheuristic-based emissions reduction in a collaborative vehicle routing problem

基于协同车辆路径问题的自适应元启发式减排问题

【摘要】

Global climate change-related initiatives such as the 2015 Paris Agreement have highlighted the necessity of sustainable transportation. Nevertheless, the rapid growth of e-commerce has notably escalated vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and CO2 emissions within cities, posing a direct challenge to sustainability initiatives. To address these challenges, this study formulates a collaborative multi-depot green vehicle routing problem. This model utilises micro-consolidation centres (MCCs) as shared hubs alongside a microscopic approach linking emission rates to vehicle and route characteristics, in order to assess MCCs' effectiveness in reducing CO2 emissions. Introduced here is an innovative self-adaptive metaheuristic algorithm hybridising intelligent water drops and simulated annealing. This methodology differs from established approaches by incorporating a feedback control system that actively monitors the algorithm's performance and convergence towards the global minimum solution. Through continuous adjustments to algorithm parameters via a feedback loop, this methodology strikes a balance between exploitation and exploration. The algorithm is tested in a context-specific approach, first applying it to the Cordeau benchmark and comparing it with previous state-of-the-arts, followed by a case study comparing the collaborative network to an independent one. This approach achieves 43 % and 25 % reductions in VKT and emissions, respectively, enhancing urban logistics networks' efficiency and sustainability.

【摘要翻译】

与气候变化相关的《巴黎协定》等2015年的举措，强调了可持续交通的必要性。然而，电子商务的快速增长显著增加了城市内车辆行驶里程（VKT）和二氧化碳的排放，对可持续发展举措构成了直接挑战。为了解决这些挑战，本研究提出了一个协作的多车段绿色车辆路径问题。该模型利用微型整合中心（MCCs）作为共享枢纽，以及一种微观方法，将排放率与车辆和路线特征联系起来，以评估MCCs在减少二氧化碳排放方面的有效性。本文介绍了一种创新的自适应元启发式算法，混合了智能水滴和模拟退火。这种方法不同于已建立的方法，它加入了一个反馈控制系统，主动监测算法的性能和收敛到全局最小解。通过反馈回路对算法参数进行连续调整，该方法在开发和探索之间取得了平衡。该算法在特定于上下文的方法中进行测试，首先将其应用于Corteau基准，并将其与以前的先进技术水平进行比较，然后将协作网络与独立网络进行比较。这种方法分别使VKT和排放减少了43 %和25 %，提高了城市物流网络的效率和可持续性。

【作者及邮箱】

Masoud Kahalimoghadam, 基础设施工程系, 工程和IT学院, 墨尔本大学, 帕克维尔, 澳大利亚, kahalimoghad@student.unimelb.edu.au

Russell G. Thompson, 基础设施工程系, 工程和IT学院, 墨尔本大学, 帕克维尔, 澳大利亚

Abbas Rajabifard, 基础设施工程系, 工程和IT学院, 墨尔本大学, 帕克维尔, 澳大利亚

【论文5】

Promoting sustainable development by mitigation of natural habitat quality decline through multifunctional urban land use: Insights from a multi-scenario simulation

通过多功能城市土地利用，减缓自然栖息地质量下降，促进可持续发展：多场景模拟的见解

【摘要】

Urban expansion threatens natural habitat quality (NHQ) and hinders the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. Whether and how multifunctional urban land use (MFULU) can mitigate NHQ decline under future urban expansion remains unclear. This study developed a theoretical framework for mitigating NHQ decline via MFULU, and examined the mitigation based on a multi-scenario simulation using the Patch-generating Land use Simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model. Three future scenarios, each including MFULU and non-MFULU modes, were considered in the simulation: Business as Usual, Economic Development, and Ecological Priority. Urban expansion led to less encroachment into natural habitats in MFULU modes than in non-MFULU modes. Additionally, natural habitats were less aggregated, and more irregular than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios, especially those with moderate and higher NHQ levels. Natural habitats were more aggregated and regular in MFULU modes than in non-MFULU modes under all scenarios. These results verified MFULU’s positive contributions in preserving natural habitats under the conservation effect of MFULU and improving the landscape patterns of natural habitats under the agglomeration effect of MFULU. The findings have implications for formulating land-sharing policies that realize win−win situations between sustainable urban development and a resilient ecological environment.

【摘要翻译】

城市扩张威胁到自然栖息地质量（NHQ），阻碍了可持续发展目标的实现。在未来的城市扩张下，多功能城市土地利用（MFULU）是否以及如何缓解NHQ的下降尚不清楚。本研究开发了一个通过MFULU缓解NHQ下降的理论框架，并基于使用补丁生成土地使用模拟模型和生态系统服务和权衡综合评估模型的多情景模拟，检验了缓解措施。在模拟中考虑了三种未来情景，包括MFULU模式和非MFULU模式：照常商业、经济发展和生态优先级。与非MFULU模式相比，MFULU模式对自然栖息地的侵蚀更少。此外，在所有情景下，与非MFULU模式相比，自然生境聚集更少，更不规则，特别是那些NHQ水平中等和较高的模式。在所有情景下，MFULU模式下的自然生境比非MFULU模式下更具聚集性和规律性。这些结果证实了MFULU在MFULU保护效应下对保护自然生境保护和在MFULU集聚效应下改善自然生境景观格局的积极贡献。研究结果对制定土地共享政策，实现可持续城市发展和弹性生态环境之间的胜利局面具有重要意义。

【作者及邮箱】

Houxing Gao, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国

Xiaoqing Song, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国; 湖南省国土资源评价与利用重点实验室, 湖南省国土资源规划研究所, 长沙 410007, 中国, songxq@cug.edu.cn

Huixiao Xu, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国

Xiang Li, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国

Juan Tang, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国

Guosong Zhao, 湖北省区域生态与环境变化重点实验室, 长江地区环境与培养实验室, 地理与信息工程学院,  中国地质大学,  武汉, 430074, 中国

【论文6】

Critical evaluation of the spatiotemporal behavior of UHI, through correlation analyses based on multi-city heterogeneous dataset

通过基于多城市异质性数据集的相关性分析，对UHI的时空行为进行批判性评价

【摘要】

This study utilizes year-round temperature data observed in 15 cities around the United States (U.S.) to investigate the relationships between UHI and urban design attributes, and answer the following questions: (1) Whether and to what extent these relationships vary with the diurnal cycle and across seasons?, (2) What is the spatial extent within which UHI is affected by different urban variables?, and (3) Which climatic factors determine the correlations between UHI and urban variables? Our analysis revealed that while surface reflectance, vegetation and building height are more influential on winter UHI, the effect of anthropogenic heat and building density is independent of the season. Also, tree canopy cover, impervious area and built-up area were more dominant on nighttime UHI, and albedo, surface reflectance, vegetation and building height had stronger influence on daytime UHI. With regards to the spatial extent, while the effect of 3D urban variables and imperviousness was prominent in the immediate vicinity (250 m–1 km), the effect of vegetation, surface reflectance and anthropogenic factors extend to a larger surrounding area (4 km–8 km). Lastly, the relationships between UHI and urban variables were noted to be strongly driven by humidity in each location.

【摘要翻译】

本研究利用美国（美国）15个城市的全年温度数据，调查UHI与城市设计属性之间的关系，回答以下问题： (1)这些关系是否以及在多大程度上随日周期和季节变化？，(2)UHI受不同城市变量影响的空间范围是什么？(3)哪些气候因素决定了UHI与城市变量之间的相关性？我们的分析显示，虽然地表反射率、植被和建筑高度对冬季UHI的影响更大，但人为热量和建筑密度的影响与季节无关。夜间UHI的树冠覆盖度、不透水面积和堆积面积优势较大，反照率、地表反射率、植被和建筑高度对日间UHI的影响较大。在空间范围上，三维城市变量和不透水性在邻近地区（250m-1km）的影响显著，而植被、地表反射率和人为因素的影响则延伸到较大的周边区域（4km-8km）。最后，UHI和城市变量之间的关系是由每个地点的湿度强烈驱动的。

【作者及邮箱】

Manan Singh, 佛罗里达建筑环境弹性研究所（纤维）, 设计学院, 佛罗里达大学建筑与规划专业教授, 第二大街西南720号, 盖恩斯维尔, FL 32601, 美国; 现工作地址：太平洋西北国家实验室, 第五大街西南620号, 810室, 波特兰, 俄勒冈州 97204, 美国,

manan.singh@pnnl.gov

Ryan Sharston, 佛罗里达建筑环境弹性研究所（纤维）, 设计学院, 佛罗里达大学建筑与规划专业教授, 第二大街西南720号, 盖恩斯维尔, FL 32601, 美国

Timothy Murtha, 人类学系, 北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校, 美国

【论文7】

Potential effect of urbanization on extreme heat events in Metro Manila Philippines using WRF-UCM

利用WRF-UCM实现城市化对菲律宾马尼拉地铁极端高温事件的潜在影响

【摘要】

This study aims to assess the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the urban canopy model and anthropogenic heat (AH) on extreme heat events and determine the potential effect of urbanization on these extreme heat events in Metro Manila. Simulations with well-represented urban land use capture temperature (Mean Bias is -0.39 °C), especially during nighttime compared to simulations without urban land cover. The simulations with urban areas at night show an increase in sensible (∼75 W m−2) and ground heat fluxes (∼125 W m−2), while a decrease in latent heat flux (∼13 W m−2) compared to simulations without urban areas. Simulations with urban cover have temperatures more than 4 °C in central Metro Manila than simulations with no urban grids. Sensitivity tests with three different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and radiation schemes show that ACM2 performed best, while RRTMG captured distribution. During the heatwaves, the daytime and nocturnal urban heat island intensities (UHIIs) are estimated at 0.75 °C and 2.17 °C, respectively. The AH effect on UHII is more substantial during nighttime and contributes about 10 % to the UHII compared to the urbanization effect. This study may help policymakers identify hotspots in Metro Manila and develop adaptation/mitigation strategies for extreme heat events.

【摘要翻译】

本研究旨在评估天气研究和预报结合城市冠层模型和人为高温（AH）对极端高温事件的影响，并确定城市化对马尼拉地铁这些极端高温事件的潜在影响。与没有城市土地覆盖的模拟相比，具有良好代表性的城市土地利用捕获温度（平均偏差）的模拟是-0.39 C)，特别是在夜间。在夜间对城市地区的模拟显示，与没有城市地区的模拟相比，敏感性（∼75Wm−2）和地热通量（∼125Wm−2）增加，而潜热通量（∼13Wm−2）减少。与没有城市网格的模拟相比，在马尼拉市中心的城市覆盖层的模拟温度超过4摄氏度。对三种不同的行星边界层（PBL）和辐射方案的灵敏度测试表明，ACM2表现最好，而RRTMG捕获了分布。在热浪期间，白天和夜间的城市热岛强度（UHIIs）估计分别为0.75摄氏度和2.17摄氏度。与城市化效应相比，AH在夜间对UHII的影响更为显著，对UHII的贡献约为10 %。这项研究可能帮助决策者确定马尼拉的热点地区，并制定极端高温事件的适应/缓解策略。

【作者及邮箱】

Angela Monina T. Magnaye, 生命与环境科学研究生院,  筑波大学，日本

Hiroyuki Kusaka, 计算科学中心,  筑波大学, 1 Chome天诺代, Tsukuba, 伊巴拉基305-0006, 日本, kusaka@ccs.tsukuba.ac.jp

【论文8】

A novel parametric workflow for simulating urban heat island effects on residential building energy use: Coupling local climate zones with the urban weather generator a case study of seven U.S. cities

一种模拟城市热岛对住宅建筑能源使用的影响的新的参数化工作流程：将当地气候区与城市天气发生器耦合，作为7个美国城市的案例研究

【摘要】

The Urban Heat Island (UHI), which causes urban areas to be warmer than rural counterparts, impacts buildings' energy demands for heating and cooling. Conventional weather data, typically gathered at non-urban sites like airports, are used to create Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) files for building energy assessments. However, this data doesn't account for urban temperature effects, impacting the accuracy of these assessments. This study proposes a novel methodology that couples Local Climate Zones (LCZs) with the Urban Weather Generator (UWG) to produce urban-specific weather data reflecting UHI effects for more accurate energy simulations. LCZs categorize urban neighborhoods into landscape types based on building heights, proximity, greenspace, etc., which regulate the magnitude of the UHI. The UWG uses LCZ parameters to estimate UHI intensity based on existing weather conditions. Together, they generate city-specific TMY files tailored to individual neighborhoods. Here, modified TMY files for seven U.S. cities located in different climates, were generated and used in residential building energy simulations. The UHI effect increases Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and decreases Heating Degree Days (HDD), but energy demand impacts vary by city and LCZ type. This methodology provides a simple means for incorporating the impact of UHI into building and urban energy simulations.

【摘要翻译】

城市热岛（UHI）导致城市地区比农村地区更温暖，它影响了建筑对供暖和制冷的能源需求。传统的天气数据，通常收集在机场等非城市地点，用于创建典型的气象年（TMY）文件，用于建筑能源评估。然而，这些数据并没有考虑到城市温度的影响，这就影响了这些评估的准确性。本研究提出了一种新的方法，将当地气候区（LCZs）与城市天气发生器（UWG）结合起来，以产生反映UHI效应的城市特定天气数据，以实现更准确的能源模拟。lcz根据建筑高度、邻近程度、绿地等因素将城市社区分为景观类型，从而调节了UHI的大小。 UWG使用LCZ参数来根据现有的天气条件估计UHI的强度。它们一起生成了针对各个社区的特定城市的TMY文件。在这里，我们生成了7个位于不同气候下的美国城市的修改后的TMY文件，并用于住宅建筑能源模拟。UHI效应增加了冷却度天数（CDD），减少了加热度天数（HDD），但能源需求的影响因城市和LCZ类型而异。这种方法为将UHI的影响纳入建筑和城市能源模拟提供了一种简单的方法。

【作者及邮箱】

Farzad Hashemi, 斯塔克曼建筑与风景园林学院, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学帕克分校, 宾夕法尼亚州, 美国, farzad.hashemi@utsa.edu

Gerald Mills, 地理学院,  都柏林大学, 爱尔兰

Ute Poerschke, 斯塔克曼建筑与风景园林学院, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学帕克分校, 宾夕法尼亚州, 美国

Lisa Domenica Iulo, 斯塔克曼建筑与风景园林学院, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学帕克分校, 宾夕法尼亚州, 美国

Gregory Pavlak, 斯塔克曼建筑与风景园林学院, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学帕克分校, 宾夕法尼亚州, 美国

Loukas Kalisperis, 斯塔克曼建筑与风景园林学院, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学, 宾夕法尼亚州立大学帕克分校, 宾夕法尼亚州, 美国

【论文9】

Impact of seasonal global land surface temperature (LST) change on gross primary production (GPP) in the early 21st century

21世纪初全球陆地温度（LST）变化对初级生产总值（GPP）的影响

【摘要】

Understanding the impact of global land surface temperature (LST) changes on gross primary production (GPP) is crucial for addressing global sustainability challenges effectively. This article explores the effects of winter and summer temperature variations on GPP from 2001 to 2020 on a global scale, employing a range of modeling techniques to investigate the complex relationship between temperature changes and GPP. The study employs various modeling approaches, including linear regression models, artificial neural networks, Random Forest (RF) models, and the XGBoost algorithm to examine both linear and non-linear relationships between global temperature changes and GPP. The results reveal that the RF and XGBoost models effectively capture the non-linear relationship between LST and GPP during both summer and winter, demonstrating a high level of statistical significance (P < 0.01) and achieving R2 values of 0.598. Furthermore, the study applies a Sen+MK trend analysis model to identify six distinct trend patterns in LST and GPP during both summer and winter seasons. In summer, the area exhibiting a non-significant increasing trend (NSI) for GPP covers 65, 066, 274.77 km2, whereas in winter, a strong significant decreasing trend (SSD) for GPP spans 64, 537, 108.31 km2. Notably, GPP patterns closely mirror those of LST, suggesting that rising high-temperature conditions during summer lead to reduced GPP, while increased low temperatures during winter promote GPP growth. Robust correlations between LST and GPP are observed under various trend conditions in both summer and winter, displaying strong statistical significance (P < 0.01), with SSD achieving a maximum R2 of 0.594. These findings contribute significantly to our comprehensive understanding of the dynamic relationship between LST and GPP and offer valuable insights for addressing the sustainable development of global climate change challenges.

【摘要翻译】

了解全球陆地表面温度（LST）变化对初级生产总值（GPP）的影响，对于有效应对全球可持续性挑战至关重要。本文在全球范围内探讨了2001-2020年冬季和夏季温度变化对GPP的影响，采用一系列建模技术研究了温度变化与GPP之间的复杂关系。该研究采用了多种建模方法，包括线性回归模型、人工神经网络、随机森林（RF）模型和XGBoost算法来检验全球温度变化与GPP之间的线性和非线性关系。结果表明，RF和XGBoost模型有效地捕捉了夏季LST和冬季GPP之间的非线性关系，具有较高的统计学意义（P < 0.01），r2值为0.598。此外，本研究应用Sen+MK趋势分析模型，确定了夏季和冬季季节LST和GPP的六种不同的趋势模式。夏季，GPP的不显著上升趋势（NSI）为65,066,274.77 km2，而冬季，GPP的显著下降趋势（SSD）为64,537,108.31 km2。值得注意的是，GPP模式与LST的模式密切相似，表明夏季高温条件升高导致GPP降低，而冬季低温升高促进GPP的生长。在夏季和冬季的不同趋势条件下，LST与GPP之间存在稳健的相关性，具有较强的统计学意义（P < 0.01），SSD的最大r2为0.594。这些发现大大有助于我们全面理解LST和GPP之间的动态关系，并为应对全球气候变化挑战的可持续发展提供了有价值的见解。