"Stock god" 巴菲特: Which schoolmate are you willing to purchase?

    "Stock god" 巴菲特: Which schoolmate are you willing to purchase?

    You already studied in here have been very many about the investment aspect knowledge, how also learned to complete the matter, you had enough IQ to be able to complete, you also had the power and the energy complete, otherwise you could not in here. But outside intelligence and energy, but also has more things to decide whether you do succeed: The our company headquarters have a gentleman to say, when he hires the person, he can look at three aspects: Good faith, intelligence, with energy. Hires only to have the intelligence and the energy, actually does not have the good faith the person could destroy the employer. Does not have the good faith the person, you only can hope him stupid and lazy, but is not intelligent and is energetic. I want to discuss am first, because I knew you all have latter two.

    Invites you and I plays a game together. You now all are reading MBA the second year, also should all understand to own schoolmate. Now I give you to buy up your schoolmate 10% Sheng right, continuously arrives his life conclusion. You cannot choose these to have the rich old father the schoolmate, each person's success all must depend on he endeavor. I give you a hour to think this question, which schoolmate Yu Sheng you are willing to buy up 10%? You can make a IQ test to them, chooses that IQ value high? I suspected very much. You can select that academic record to be best? I also suspected. You not necessarily can choose that energy abundantly, because your itself already the power was full. You possibly can go seek these qualities factor, because here each people all have the brain very much. After you have thought for a hour, when under you gambling stake, possibly can choose the person which that you most has the sympathy, that most has the leader to be able the person, that can realize the other people benefit person, that generous, honest, even if is he idea, also can give the other people the merit minute person □□you to be able to choose that you most respectively person. Now you write these qualities in the left fence.

    Then, my here gives under you to stumble again. Buys up schoolmate's 10% when you, you also must sell other person 10%. This is not very interesting? You can think who I do sell? You possibly or cannot look for IQ lowly. You possibly can elect the schoolmate which that lets you loathe, as well as these make your repugnant quality. That you do not hope the person which has the social dealings, other people are not willing the person which has the social dealings with it. Is what quality has caused that? You can find out a pile to come, for instance insufficiently is honest, likes taking advantage and so on. These, you may write them in the paper right fence. When you look at carefully the paper the left fence and the right fence, can discover an interesting point: Whether throws the rugby outside 60 yards not to be certainly unimportant, whether can in 3 run 100 yards in 9 seconds not to be unimportant, whether is in the class the most attractive also irrelevant general situation. Truly more importantly these on paper in left fence quality. If you want, you may have possess these qualities □□motion, the temperament, the disposition, all is may achieve. Again has a look the quality which in the right fence these lets you loathe, an item has not been you can not but want, even if some speeches, you also may change. In your this age, changes is much easier than in my this age, because majority these behaviors all are gradually fix get down. The people all said "the custom shackles start to be light let the person not be able to feel, once you felt time, already was is heavy is unable to remove". I thought said very much rightly. In your this age, any custom and the behavior pattern all may have, so long as you want, is only a choice question. Therefore I said, if you all write down these qualities, considers well, chooses and follows what is good, you possibly are that you is willing to buy up 10% person! Better is you originally 100% had you. This is I must say today. Under lets us start to chat you to be interested. We may or there lift from here the hand start.

Q&A Only does oneself looked understands business

Q: Speaks enterprise which you likes, is not the enterprise specific name, what quality enterprise but is you likes?

A: I only like me looking understands business, this standard removed 90% enterprise. You looked that, I have too many things not to be able to master. Lucky is, or has that some things I also to look understands.

Conceives in a so big world, the majority company all is goes on the market, therefore the basically many American company all is may buy. Let us at the matter which all understands from everybody start to say (巴菲特 lifts him to be possible happy bottle), I understood this, you understood this, each people all understand this. This is bottle of cherries may be happy, does not have any change from 1886. Very simple, but is not the easy business.

I may not want to the competitor to say the very easy business, I to want outside business has a city wall, comes between is the value not Philippines's castle, I must be responsible for, the competent talented person manage this castle.

I want the city wall may be diverse, for example in automobile insurance domain GEICO (a US insurance company), its city wall is the low cost. The people are must buy the automobile insurance, each person of each vehicle can buy, I cannot sell 20 for a person, but a person at least can have. Does the consumer purchase from where? This based on insurance company's service and cost. The most people all thought various company the service basically is same or close, therefore the cost is their determining factor. Therefore, I must look for the low cost the company, this is my city wall.

I give these companies manager's request am, lets city wall thicker, protects it, resists competitor Yu Qiangwai. You may through the service, the product quality, the price, the cost, the patent, the geographical position achieve the goal.

I seek am such enterprise. What then such enterprise all is making to thrive? I must find them, must find these outstanding enterprises from the simplest product. Because I have no way to expect to 10 years after, the inscription on animal bones and tortoise shells, the lotus flower, or Microsoft can develop any type. Bill? Gates is I has bumped into the best businessman. Microsoft now locates the position very is also good. But I or know without knowing where to begin to they 10 year after condition. Similarly I also know nothing about to their competitor 10 year after situation.

Although I do not have the chewing gum the company, after how but do I know for 10 years their development to be able. The Internet is cannot change us to chew the chewing gum the way, in fact, any has not been able to change us to chew the chewing gum the way. Can have (chewing gum) the new product unceasingly to enter the experimental time very many, some is defeated comes to an end. This is the thing development rule. If you give me 10 hundred million, lets me enter the chewing gum business, opens a gap, I am unable to achieve. This is I considers a business the basic principle. For me 10 hundred million, how many can I have to the competitor to attack? For me 100 hundred million, I can have in a big way to the world Coca-Cola loss? I cannot achieve, because, their business steady like rock. For me a money, lets me seize other domains, I actually always can discover the means to achieve the matter.

Therefore, I must look business is simple, is easy to understand, in the economy accepted and honest, the competent management level. Thus, I can see clearly this enterprise 10 years general orientation. If I cannot achieve this point, I am cannot buy. Is basic says, I only can buy these, even if the New York Stock Exchange closes a door for five years from tomorrow, I also very much will be glad the stock which will have. If I buy a farm, even if in five years I do not know its price, but so long as farm revolution normal, I am happy. If I buy the apartment group, so long as they can rent out, brings the estimate the repayment, I equally am also happy.

The people buy the stock, according to the second day early morning stock price rise and drop, decided their investment is whether correct, this simply is talks nonsense. Just like Gram said, you must buy are an enterprise's part of business. This is Gram teaches my most basic most core strategy. You buy are not the stock, you buy are an enterprise's part of business. Enterprise good, your investment is good, so long as you buy up the price are not too odd.

This is the investment essence is at. You must buy you to look understands business, you have bought the farm, is because you understand the farm the management. Is such simple. This all is Gram's idea. My 67 years old start to the stock to be interested, when 11 year-old has bought the first stock. I sink confuse to the graph, the turnover and so on each kind of technical specification research. When my 19 years old, luckily has taken up Gram's book. In the book said that, you buy are not the stock mark which in that all day about fluctuates, you buy are a company's part of business. Starts since me such to consider the question, all suddenly see the light. Such is simple.

I settle on business must have strikes root in the hearts of the people the brand

Q: Like you a moment ago said that, you already spoke the matter one half, that was seeks the enterprise, tries to understand the business model, took has the so massive funds the investor, how you did decide purchases the enterprise by an appropriate price?

 A: That is the decision which is very difficult to make. Thing does not believe firmly which to me, I am cannot buy. If I extremely believe firmly to a thing, usually it takes to my repayment not to be able to be very considerable. Why has to use these you only to have to feel can have 40% repayment the enterprise to try the luck at games of chance? Our repayment is not astonishing high, but generally says, we cannot have the loss.

    In 1972, we have bought See ' s Candy (a candy company). It sells 16 million pounds candies every year by each pound 1.95 US dollar prices, has in front of 4 million taxes the profit. We bought it to spend 25000000. I and my partner thought See ' s Candy has the fixed price charm which one kind not yet develops, each pound 1.95 US dollar candies may very easily sell by 2.25 prices. Each pound 30 minute rising in prices, 16 million pounds are extra 4.8 million, therefore 25 million buys the purchase price or to take into account.

We never hire have consulted the teacher. We knew ' s Candy all has some special impressions in California each person to See, they absolutely recognize this sign the sugar. In 情人节, delivers See to the girl ' the s Candy sugar, they can happily kiss it. If they throw the sugar in the one side, looks cold and indifferentbe standoffish, then our business too bad. So long as the girl kisses our sugar, that is we must instill into for California in the person brain □□the girl likes kissing See ' the s Candy sugar. If we can achieve this goal, we were allowed to rise in prices.

We See which bought in 1972 ' s Candy, after that, we in December 26, after the Christmas day first day, rose in prices every year. Christmas day period we have sold very the polysaccharide. This year, we have sold 30 million pounds sugars, a pound gains 2 US dollars, altogether has gained 60000000. After ten years, we can earn many. In that 60 million miles, 55 million is gains in the Christmas day previous 3 weeks. This truly is a pile good business.

 If you again thought, about this business important is, the most people all do not buy the box to install the chocolate to come own to expend, they only are come with it as the birthday or the holiday present the present.

情人节 is in every year is most important one day. Christmas day is until now extremely the important sales season. The woman buys the sugar is for the Christmas day, they usually buy around that two to three weeks. The man buys the sugar is for 情人节. They in go home on the road drives, we put the advertisement in the radio program to shout "the compunction, the compunction", the men exit in abundance from the high speed road □□not box of chocolate in the hand, they are do not dare to go home. 情人节 is sales most fire one day. You can imagine, in 情人节 that day, See ' the s Candy price already was a 11 US dollars pound. Certainly also has other sign the candy is a 6 US dollars pound. When you in 情人节 time goes home (these all is ' s Candy strikes root in the hearts of the people about See a curtain scene, your that position accepts your present, heartfelt thank you, blessing next year), you actually give your that 6 dollars sugar, said, "dear, this year I buy am the inexpensive goods", this is impossible accepted!

In some kind of degree, some things and the price are does not have the relations, or said is not take the price as the guidance. This likes Disney. Disney sells in the world is 16.95 or 19.95 US dollars families images product. All has some feelings in place each person in the heart to Disney. If I said round the world the film and television, it cannot arouse in your heart that kind of special feelings; I said 20th century Fox company, you cannot have any response. But Disney is different. This point in world all so. When your age ages, these Disney's image product, you may feel relieved lets the child look every day in the one side for several hours. When you go to the audio and video shop, you can sit in the there, all has a liking for several kind of flat and thin pieces, then decided which you the child is sure to like? This possibility is very small. Other sign sells 16.95, but Disney sells 17.95, you knew buys Disney not to be able to be wrong, therefore you bought. Does not have the time in certain you at the matter, you not necessarily must make the high grade decision. But says as Disney, may therefore by a higher price, sells are more much movies. Good business! But says to other signs, the day not that felt better.

But Disney is different. This point in world all so. When your age ages, these Disney's image product, you may feel relieved lets the child look every day in the one side for several hours. When you go to the audio and video shop, you can sit in the there, all has a liking for several kind of flat and thin pieces, then decided which you the child is sure to like? This possibility is very small. Other sign sells 16.95, but Disney sells 17.95, you knew buys Disney not to be able to be wrong, therefore you bought. Does not have the time in certain you at the matter, you not necessarily must make the high grade decision. But says as Disney, may therefore by a higher price, sells are more much movies. Good business! But says to other signs, the day not that felt better.

Dream missing homeland continuously diligently make are similar to the Disney concept brand, comes to compete with it in the world scope, substitutes for in the people heart to Disney's that special feelings, for instance round the world film and television, but mothers cannot buy their flat and thin piece in the audio and video shop, but gives up Disney, that is not impossible to occur. The Coca-Cola is in the global scope and the joyful mood is connected in together. No matter you spend how much money, you want to let the world 5 billion people like RC being possible to be happy (the note: 巴菲特 fabricates the drink sign), that is cannot achieve. You may go in for a clever trick, make discount promotion and so on, but all is unable to prevail. This is a business which you wants, you want city wall. The biggest fault has made any, but has not made any

Q: Chats fault which you invests.

A: About fault interesting is, in the investment, at least speaking of me and my partner, the biggest fault has made any, but has not made any. Knows very many business regarding us, when the opportunity arrives, we actually hesitated, but is not makes any. We missed have gained the fetching by 1 billion Yuan ideas great money good opportunity. Did not discuss these we do not understand business, only concentrates to these us understands. We have truly missed the opportunity which makes money from the Microsoft body,but that and no special significance, because we from as soon as start not to understand Microsoft the business.

But regarding should earn on the medical health care stock several 1 billion, we actually missed. When the tank Linton government promotes the medical care program, the medical health care company gets a good result. We must earn plate Man Boman above that, because I understand inside that the causes and effects. The 80's intermediate stages, we must (American support in Fannie Mae government, specially is two level of Fang Dai the ultra large-scale company) on to make a profit quite abundantly, because we also are considered as the clear center the outcome.

These all counts the super mistake which to 1000000000 counts, actually cannot the principle grasp presently by Accountant GAAP.

You may say that is one kind of 犯 wrong pattern. Your pleasing concrete transaction condition, but the cold transaction company does not locate profession. I before has made such mistake, future I also will very possibly be able to make such mistake. But a bigger mistake or I as soon as start to say because hesitates and hesitates is the result of. When I only have 10,000 dollars times, I have invested 2000 in the steam repair shop, moreover is the meat dumpling beats a dog, that business opportunity cost reaches as high as 60 hundred million (to smile), is greatly wrong. When Berkshire stock price drop, I also can feel many, because that also reduced the steam repair shop purchase cost (to smile), as well as 20% opportunity cost.

When you chat derives the experience from the defeat, I sincerely believe you to be supposed better or from other people's defeat to study, more the better (smiles). In Berkshire Corporation, our not colored time cherishes the memory of. I and my partner was 40 year elder brother, from did not have any quarrel. We can have the different opinion at very many matters, but from has not had the quarrel, we also ever did not review the past. We always will fill the hope to the future, all thought will hobble to ' if us has such done... ... ' The supposition is impervious, such makes the fact which is impossible to change already becomes.

You only can live when the present. Perhaps you may in the mistake which passes from you derive the lesson, but is most essential or persisted is you to understand business. You should persevere are depending on the domain which own ability could completely understand.

When you make the decision-making, you should look in the mirror own, engage in introspection, "I buy up 100 general automobiles by 55 Yuan prices the stocks am because of... ... " . You are responsible for the oneself all purchases behavior, must frequently fill the rationality. If the reason is not full, your decision only can not buy. If merely is some people has mentioned at the cocktail party, then this reason far has not been full. Also is impossible is because some turnovers or the technical specification have a liking for is good, or profit and so on. Buys up must truly be you wants to have that part of business the reason, this always is we persisted as far as possible achieves, also is Gram teaches me.

 Q: When can you think your investment has already realized its growth limit?

A: The ideal situation is when you purchase business time, you did not hope you buy the enterprise has a growth limit. I buy the Coca Cola Company time, after I did not hope 10 year, 15 years saw may happy be without ammunition and food. Does not remove has this possibility, but the possibility approaches to zero. When we consider business time, this is our principle. Basically, we seek business which these plans permanent has. We when purchase enterprise always not in advance settles an item marked price. For instance, if our buying rate is 30, when the stock price arrives 40, 50, 60 or 100, we sell, so forth. We no longer like this conduct. When we spend 25000000 buys private company See ' s Candy, we do not have "if some people leave 50 million we sells" the plan, that is not a consideration business correct way. We consider business the way are, along with time passing, the enterprise which buys whether can bring more and more many profits? If to this question reply is firmly, any other questions all are unnecessary.

Material origin: An Di invests the abundant guest