Celebrates ultra thinks Hua Ke and center the petrochemistry group cooperation project approval

   (Hereafter refers to as petrochemistry group) after more than a year of diligently Chinese petroleum chemical industry group to construct and the confirmation is in 2007 of a oil price important action to forecast the platform builds completes, core partial - international crude oils price forecast model project today through approval, also represented entered the mature period using our country innate technology development mathematical quantification forecast model.

 For many years, the mathematical quantification analysis method always has obtained the western society hotly to hold, outstandingly is attains Nobel prize measurement economist Klein Crein as well as similarly obtains Nobel by the complex adaptive system theory establishment forecast company the physics prize law silent Fame, but forecast the company in the not really well-known situation on by the auspicious silver group by US dollar purchase, has been surely represented based on the complex adaptive system theory to the capital market forecast mathematical quantification analysis method value and the serviceability.

Also is precisely under such background, center the petrochemistry group and Beijing ultra thinks Hua Ke to sign on the basis complex adaptive system theory establishment international crude oil price forecast model cooperation important contract. After for year both sides common diligently and cooperation, center the petrochemistry group and Beijing ultra thinks Hua Kejiu this project to achieve the approval. Through the near for year cooperation, center the petrochemistry group also yields the gradual result, the project result obtains both sides to affirm. This also builds the solid foundation for the center petrochemistry group this our country biggest crude oil import company more rigorous control cost risk. The approval group in the petrochemistry group and its the subordinate subsidiary company the high level leadership is composed which by the multi- positions in carried on to the project has evaluated, and on "made our country innate international crude oil price forecast system, made a bigger contribution for the country" to put forward many substantive instruction proposals. The approval group also to this project basis theory method, the practical application and the short-term trend forecast will carry on deliberated, the project obtained the achievement and its the social significance obtained the attending member to approve.

Center the petrochemistry group was in July, 1998 the country reorganizes the be established extra large type petroleum petrochemistry enterprise group in the original Chinese petroleum chemical industry main corporation foundation, was the national sole ownership establishment state-owned company, the national authorization investment organization and the national holding company. At the beginning of the reorganization, center the petrochemistry group summoned on the response country that, take positively makes into has the international competition strength enterprise as the goal, the scientific management dares to innovate. It takes our country biggest crude oil import and the refined oil refinement enterprise, also is situated the global business 500 strong front rows, because the service particularity accomplishes it to the international crude oil price undulation sensitivity. As early as high level then realizes in this century junior middle school petrochemistry group facing repeatedly creates the price new high international crude oil enterprise need more scientific auxiliary decision system, western society is in vogue the mathematical quantification analysis method will import the crude oil decision-making regarding the enterprise to get up the certain help. Management level this kind accepts the ability to the new things strongly, made the petrochemistry group to the market mechanism judgement accurate characteristic to develop the step increasingly to be fast in recent years.

After the international crude oil price forecast project start, ultra thought the Chinese branch to set up in immediately a special service the petrochemistry group's project group, this group collected domain specialized talented person and so on the finance, mathematics, has completed the project preparatory work in the short time, carried on in the detail in view of the center petrochemistry group service characteristic the adjustment, in a friendly way linked up through the bilateral project component member, soon then formulated the consummation corporate plan. Executed the reality after a year, the project finally completes and had achieved the anticipated target, ultra thought the Chinese branch person in charge at the approval meeting to indicate: The gradual achievement obtains which on at present says, in the certain degree can control the help for the enterprise risk, but we still had to absorb the opinion, supplemented the insufficiency, strove for can obtain the customer satisfaction the service.

At this project approval meeting, may say has been carries on the summary and the review to the bilateral since cooperation work, definitely present stage after-working hours still must diligently strive after, modest study. Through bilateral this cooperation happy coming to an end, future also will be able to have the more cooperations opportunity. The bilateral cooperation inevitably will be able to become for the center petrochemistry group has the international influence the enterprise, finally will make a bigger contribution for the country the grand blueprint to trace dark ink.

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译:经过一年多的努力中国石油化工集团（以下简称中石化集团）构建并确认为2007年重要举措之一的油价预测平台搭建完成，其中核心部分 - 国际原油价格预测模型项目今日通过验收，也代表了利用我国自有技术开发的数量化预测模型进入成熟期。

    多年来，数量化分析方法一直得到西方社会热捧，其中尤为突出的则是获诺贝尔奖的计量经济学家克莱因Crein以及以复杂适应系统理论创立预测公司的同样获得诺贝尔物理学奖的法默Fame，而预测公司在不甚知名的情况下就被瑞银集团以千万美元收购，代表了基于复杂适应系统理论对资本市场预测的数量化分析方法的价值与适用性。

　　也正是在这样的背景下，中石化集团与北京超思华科签订就依据复杂适应系统理论建立国际原油价格预测模型的合作要约。经过一年来双方共同的努力与协作，中石化集团与北京超思华科就该项目达成验收。通过近一年来的合作，中石化集团也从中取得阶段性成果，项目成效获得双方肯定。这也为中石化集团这个我国最大的原油进口公司更加严谨的控制成本风险打下坚实的基础。

　　由多位中石化集团及其属下子公司中高层领导组成的验收小组对项目进行了评定，并就“打造我国自有的国际原油价格预测体系，为国家做出更大贡献”提出许多实质的指导性建议。验收小组还对该项目依据的理论方法、实际应用及近期走势预报进行了研讨，项目所取得的成果及其社会意义得到与会成员认可。

　　中石化集团是1998年7月国家在原中国石油化工总公司基础上重组成立的特大型石油石化企业集团，是国家独资设立的国有公司、国家授权投资的机构和国家控股公司。重组之初，中石化集团就响应国家号召，以积极打造成为具有国际竞争力企业为目标，科学管理勇于创新。其作为我国最大的原油进口及成品油炼制企业，又位居全球企业500强前列，因业务的特殊性造就其对国际原油价格波动的敏感。早在本世纪初中石化集团高层便意识到面对屡创价格新高的国际原油企业需要更加科学的辅助决策系统，其中西方社会盛行的数量化分析方法将对于企业进口原油决策起到一定帮助。管理层这种对新鲜事物接受能力强，对市场结构判断准确的特点令中石化集团近年来发展步伐愈发快速。
　　　
　　国际原油价格预测项目启动后，超思华科立即组建了一支专项服务中石化集团的项目小组，该小组汇集金融、数学等领域专业人才，在短时间内就完成了项目的筹备工作，针对中石化集团业务特点进行细节上的调整，通过双方项目组成员友好沟通，不久便制定出完善的合作计划。经过一年的施实，项目终于完成并达到了预期指标，在验收会上超思华科负责人表示：就目前所取得的阶段性成果而言，一定程度上能够为企业风险控制起到帮助，但我们仍需吸收意见，补充不足，争取能够令客户得到满意的服务。

　　此次项目验收会上，可以说是对双方自合作以来的工作进行总结与回顾，肯定现阶段工作之余仍需孜孜以求，虚心学习。通过双方此次合作愉快的告终，未来也将会有更多的合作机会。双方的合作势必会为中石化集团成为具有国际影响力的企业，最终为国家做出更大贡献的宏伟蓝图描上一笔浓墨。