数学家对物理学家的鄙视_物理学家的未来经济学

数学家对物理学家的鄙视

Annotation. This article gives an analogy between the forces of nature and various types of money. A justification for the "money conservation laws" is made. Explanation of the IT-money phenomenon by analogy to physics laws is given, as well as gold and currency money. The transition from the gold and currency to the gold-currency-computing economy is considered. A reasonable assumption is made that the fourth type of money after gold, securities and IT money will be so-called "citation indices" or "ratings", which are similar in their properties to stock indices.

注解。 本文给出了自然力量和各种货币之间的类比。 提出了“节约金钱法”的理由 。 给出了类似于物理定律的IT货币现象以及黄金和货币货币的解释。 考虑了从黄金和货币到金币计算经济的过渡。 可以合理地假设 ,仅次于黄金,证券和IT货币的第四类货币将是所谓的“引证指数”或“评级”,它们的性质与股票指数相似。

What is money?

This article is an attempt to understand what money is from the physics and econophysics points of view. Econophysics (economics and physics) is an interdisciplinary research field, applying theories and methods originally developed by physicists to solve problems in economics, usually those including uncertainty or stochastic processes, nonlinear dynamics and evolutionary games.

本文试图从物理学和经济物理学的角度理解什么是金钱。 经济物理学 (经济学和物理学)是一个跨学科的研究领域,应用最初是由物理学家开发的理论和方法来解决经济问题,通常是那些包括不确定性或随机过程,非线性动力学和进化的游戏。

This is an unusual point of view at the concept of money. It looks like a fantastic story. However, it could help the reader better understand what money is and why they are necessary for civilization development [1]. The author does not have a deep understanding of the subject and maybe wrong in things that are obvious to others.

对于金钱的概念,这是不寻常的观点。 它看起来像一个奇妙的故事。 但是,它可以帮助读者更好地理解什么是金钱,以及为什么金钱对于文明发展是必要的[1]。 作者对该主题没有深刻的理解,并且在对他人显而易见的事情中可能是错误的。

"There is no money conservation law," some speak with irony. However, in 1965 Benoit Mandelbrot discovered that the dynamics of financial series (price fluctuations on the exchange market) are the same on small and large time scales. According to the schedule of the financial series, it is almost impossible to determine whether it depicts price fluctuations during the hour, day or month. Mandelbrot called this property self-similarity, and the objects possessing it are called fractals. The fractal structure of the financial series shows some continuous symmetry of the physical system. According to the Noether's theorem is: "If a system has a continuous symmetry property, then there are corresponding quantities whose values are conserved in time." For fractals, there is a scale symmetry. So, by Noether's theorem, some "money conservation laws" must exist. Most likely, these conservation laws are not similar to the laws of conservation of energy, momentum and angular momentum. We don’t know them yet.

有些人讽刺地说:“没有节约金钱的法律。” 但是,1965年,Benoit Mandelbrot发现,金融系列的动力学(交易所市场上的价格波动)在大小范围上都是相同的。 根据财务系列的时间表,几乎不可能确定它是否描述了小时,日或月中的价格波动。 曼德布罗特称此属性为自相似性,拥有它的物体称为分形 。 金融系列的分形结构显示出物理系统的某些连续对称性。 根据Noether定理 ,“如果系统具有连续的对称性,那么就会有相应的量,其值会及时守恒。” 对于分形,存在尺度对称性 。 因此,根据Noether定理,必须存在一些“金钱守恒定律”。 这些守恒定律很可能与能量,动量和角动量的守恒定律不相似。 我们还不认识他们。

Fundamental forces in nature

Let's draw an analogy between money and the forces in nature. In physics each type of interaction corresponds to a carrier particle of this interaction. For example, photons mediate the interaction of electric charges, and gluons mediate the interaction of color charges (table 1):

让我们在金钱和自然力量之间进行类比 。 在物理学中, 每种类型的相互作用都对应于这种相互作用的载体粒子 。 例如,光子介导电荷的相互作用,胶子介导色电荷的相互作用(表1):

Table 1 – Each type of interaction corresponds to a carrier particle

表1 –每种相互作用类型均对应于载体颗粒

InteractionMediators
GravitationGraviton (hypothetical)
ElectromagneticPhoton
StrongGluons
WeakW and Z bosons, and also Higgs boson
相互作用 调解员
引力 引力子(假想的)
电磁 光子
强大 胶子
W和Z玻色子,还有希格斯玻色子

By analogy with the table 1, there is a proposal for the "mediators" of the market forces (table 2):

与表1相似,有人建议市场力量为“调解人”(表2):

Table 2 — Each economic resource corresponds to a certain type of money

表2 —每种经济资源对应一种特定类型的货币

Economic "interaction"Money type or mediator of "economic force"
Minerals and everything that grows on EarthGold and silver coins
Industry (factories, newspapers, ships, etc.)Securities and Currency
Computing resourcesIT-money (digital currency, electronic money, cryptocurrency, bitcoin, etc.)
Intellectual resources?Citation Ratings? Indices?
经济“互动” 金钱类型或“经济力量”的调解人
矿物质和地球上生长的一切 金银币
行业(工厂,报纸,船舶等) 证券和货币
计算资源 IT货币( 数字货币 ,电子货币, 加密货币比特币等)
智力资源? 引文等级? 指数?

The author suggests a fresh look at labor and capital. Perhaps labor and capital are not economic resources.

作者建议重新审视劳动力和资本。 也许劳动力和资本不是经济资源。

Interaction types in economy

Labor is a potential and, by analogy with potential energy in physics, cannot be a "mediator" of economic interactions. Labor potential can be expressed through any of the economic forces: peasant labor on the ground, worker labor at the factory, office labor, intellectual labor, and artistic creativity — these are completely different types of labor that are incorrectly combined into a single so-called "labor resource". Labor is a potential, not a resource. It could be the biggest mistake of Karl Marx [3], who equated labor (that is, with potential energy) with capital (that is, with economics "mediator"). Labor is not a capital, not a "mediator". No one can "capitalize labor" and store it somewhere in the vault. Workforce, a person’s ability to work is not an independent product, but it is an integral part and appendage of the means of production. See the explanation below.

劳动是一种潜力,与物理学中的势能类似,它不能成为经济相互作用的“中介”。 劳动潜力可以通过任何一种经济力量来表达:地面上的农民劳动,工厂的工人劳动,办公室劳动,知识劳动和艺术创造力-这些是完全不同的劳动类型,被错误地组合为一个单一的劳动-称为“劳动力资源”。 劳动是一种潜力,而不是一种资源。 这可能是卡尔·马克思 [3]的最大错误,他将劳动(即势能)与资本(即经济学的“中介者”)等同起来。 劳动不是资本,也不是“调解人”。 没有人可以“劳动力化”并将其存储在金库中的某个位置。 劳动力 ,一个人的工作能力不是独立的产品,而是生产资料 不可或缺的一部分 。 请参阅下面的说明。

Karl Marx was not a physicist and therefore did not understand the difference between power and energy. Perhaps this misunderstanding of the physical structure of nature resulted in great losses for civilization. But let's continue further.

卡尔·马克思不是物理学家,因此不了解功率和能量之间的区别。 对自然物理结构的这种误解也许导致了文明的巨大损失。 但是,让我们继续。

Capital (i.e. money) is a mediator of economic "interactions", but cannot be allocated as a separate economic resource, because it consists of many different types of money. By analogy with mediator particles in physics, capital can be of various types and express completely different economic forces. In other words, there are various types of money, as well as various conservation laws, which are regulated by various economic forces.

资本(即货币)是经济“互动”的媒介,但不能分配为单独的经济资源,因为它由许多不同类型的货币组成。 通过类似于物理学中的中介粒子,资本可以具有各种类型,并表达完全不同的经济力量。 换句话说, 有各种类型的货币 ,以及各种受各种经济力量管制的保护法。

Zero Euro Karl Marx

The author assumes that the alternative and complement to the gold and foreign exchange reserves will be information and computing reserves. That is, the more a country, company or individual has data banks and computing power, the better position it will occupy in the world markets, possess more market liquidity.

作者假设黄金和外汇储备的替代和补充是信息和计算储备。 也就是说,一个国家,公司或个人拥有数据库和计算能力的越多,它将在世界市场上占据更好的位置,拥有更多的市场流动性

Indeed, all these numerous cryptocurrencies are valuable, because somebody has computing resources. It may be a shift from the gold and currency to the gold-currency-computing economics. Where gold is minerals, the initial level. Then the currency is securities, the second level. And IT-money is computing power, the third level.

确实,所有这些众多的加密货币都是有价值的,因为有人拥有计算资源。 这可能是从黄金和货币向黄金货币计算经济学的转变。 黄金是矿物质时的初始水平。 那么货币是证券,第二层。 IT金钱是计算能力的第三层。

IT money is a unit of computing power that is already valuable by itself. It doesn't matter how this computing power is used at the moment: whether it is training neural networks, or analyzing the human genome, or performing dummy infinite loop. By analogy, IT money can be compared with a particle-carrier of "computing forces" (see table 2). In the future, IT money will be based on socially useful algorithms of federated machine learning [4] and other machine learning tasks. However, there will be frauds too.

IT资金是计算能力的一部分,本身已经很有价值。 目前,这种计算能力的使用方式无关紧要:是训练神经网络,还是分析人类基因组,或执行虚拟无限循环。 通过类推,可以将IT资金与“计算力”的粒子载体进行比较(请参阅表2)。 将来,IT资金将基于联合机器学习 [4]和其他机器学习任务的对社会有用的算法。 但是,也会有欺诈行为

According to the author, Moore’s law hinders the implementation of IT money. Computational resources are depreciated twice every two years. There is hyperinflation of computing power, which does not allow an accumulation of computing power for a long time and to grow rich. Either "saturation" will occur and Moore’s law will be violated, or logarithmic growth of computing power will be in use. Thus, the logarithm exponentially turns this indicator into a constant.

根据作者的说法, 摩尔定律阻碍了IT资金的实施。 计算资源每两年折旧两次。 存在计算能力的过度膨胀,这不允许长时间积累计算能力并致富。 要么发生“饱和”并且违反摩尔定律,要么使用计算能力的对数增长。 因此,对数将这个指标指数化为常数。

What will be the next level of liquidity? Perhaps it will be citation indices of scientific articles, artworks and any intellectual products including comments in the social network. Citation indices, similar to h-index or impact factor, a numerical indicator of the importance of scientific or artistic work. Site rating. Citation indices of intellectual products are an alternative and addition to stock market indices which are known to be based on securities.

下一个流动性水平将是什么? 也许它将是科学文章 ,艺术品和任何知识产品( 包括社交网络中的评论)的引文索引。 引用指数 ,类似于h指数影响因子 ,是科学或艺术作品重要性的数字指标。 网站评分。 知识产品的引证指数是已知基于证券的股票市场指数的替代和补充。

In this case, the absolute values of the indices will not be important. Only index changes over time will matter, the gradient or even the logarithm of the index change. Citation indices will be traded like stock market index future and will be measured in price interest points (percentage in point).

在这种情况下,索引的绝对值将不重要。 只有指数随时间变化才是重要的,指数变化的梯度甚至对数都是重要的。 引文索引将像股票市场期货指数一样进行交易,并将以价格利息点 (百分比点)计量。

Over time, liquidity, measured in absolute terms, will concede to "dynamic" liquidity measured like the first derivative (gradient) of the index change or even the logarithm. Absolute values will not completely leave the markets but will share the sphere of influence with dynamic indices. More likely that the logarithm of the growth of citation indices will be calculated, which is essentially an entropy.

随着时间的流逝,以绝对值衡量的流动性将等同于“动态”流动性,就像指数变化或对数的一阶导数(梯度)一样。 绝对值不会完全离开市场,而是会与动态指数共享影响范围。 更有可能计算引证指数增长的对数,这实际上是一个

Further will be an explanation why intellectual abilities can become an economic "force", and labor nowadays is not such a "force"? The fact is that not only people can work, but also animals, machines, real estate, and money. However, only people can create high-quality intellectual products. Soon, robots will be able too. But in the near future, only humans themselves will create robots using their intellectual abilities.

进一步的解释将解释为什么智力能力可以成为经济的“力量” ,而如今的劳动不是这样的“力量”? 事实是,不仅人们可以工作,而且动物,机器,房地产和金钱也可以。 但是,只有人才能创造出高质量的知识产品。 很快,机器人也将能够。 但是在不久的将来,只有人类自己才能利用他们的智力创造出机器人。

If express this idea through the conceptual apparatus of Karl Marx, then the labor in its classical understanding remains and always will depend on means of production. Labor is an appendage to the means of production and not a value. Soon intellectual abilities will not dependent on ownership on means of production. The bulk of the information will be publicly available for free. Therefore, a person in his professional and personal growth will be limited only by his intellectual abilities, natural inclinations or acquired through education, character perseverance, and mind liveliness.

如果通过卡尔·马克思的概念工具表达这一思想,那么按照其经典理解的劳动就将继续存在,并将始终依赖于生产资料。 劳动是生产资料的附属物,而不是价值。 很快,智力将不再取决于生产资料的所有权。 大量信息将免费公开提供。 因此,一个人在其专业和个人成长中将仅受其智力,自然倾向或通过教育,性格坚毅和头脑活跃所获得。

It'll be possible to express the power of one's intellectual abilities through free of charge or very cheap means of production via the Internet. For this reason, the concept of "labor" and the concept of "intellectual power" (currently "intellectual labor") will be separated by meaning. Intellectuals will not work in a generally accepted way: it'll be like a computer game or lifestyle. Now the concept of "labor" and "intellectual labor" are still synonyms and the work of a software developer is not much different from the work of a production worker. Gradually the price for intellectual means of production: computer, Internet connection, access to information will become cheaper and will either be completely free, or their cost will be insignificant.

可以通过互联网免费或非常廉价的生产方式来表达自己的智力的力量。 因此,“劳动”的概念和“智力力量”(当前为“智力劳动”)的概念将通过含义分开。 知识分子不会以普遍接受的方式工作:就像电脑游戏或生活方式。 现在,“劳动”和“智力劳动”的概念仍然是同义词,软件开发人员的工作与生产工人的工作没有太大不同。 智力生产资料的价格将逐渐降低 :计算机,互联网连接,信息访问将变得更便宜,或者完全免费,或者其成本微不足道。

Publish or perish

In academia, one can notice a tendency to "enrich" via scientific publications. To the author's point of view, this is the beginning of "intellectual money". This concept is briefly expressed in the aphorism "Publish or perish", by analogy with "Get Rich or Die". Intellectually capable people will be of the same value as minerals now, literally valued "worth its weight in gold". The main efforts of the leading states will be directed at their cultivation, education, and preservation. The "brain drain" is relevant now, but in the future, it'll be equated and will be an analogue of the money loss, by analogy with a decrease in the country's foreign exchange reserves.

在学术界,人们可以通过科学出版物注意到“丰富”的趋势。 从作者的角度来看,这是“智力货币”的开始。 这个概念在“ 发布或灭亡 ”的格言中作了简要表述,类似于“致富或消亡 ”。 具有智力的人现在将具有与矿产相同的价值,其字面价值为“值得其金子般的重量”。 领导国家的主要努力将集中在其种植,教育和保存上。 “人才外流”现在很重要,但在将来,它将等同于货币损失,类似于该国外汇储备的减少。

Conclusion. IT money is not the final phase of money evolution. Other economic "forces" will show up and, as a result, new money types. A new concept of "intellectual power" will appear. The cost of "intellectual power" will be expressed in the "citation index" and "rating" by analogy with the stock index. The proverb "Time is money" will give way to another proverb "Knowledge is power".

结论。 IT钱不是钱发展的最后阶段。 其他经济“力​​量”将出现,结果将出现新的货币类型。 将会出现“智力力量”的新概念。 “智力力量”的成本将类似于股票指数以“引文索引”和“评级”表示。 谚语“时间就是金钱”将让位给另一句谚语“知识就是力量”。

Literature:

文学:

  1. Stanisław Lem "Summa Technologiae" (briefly in Wikipedia)

    StanisławLem“ Summa Technologiae”(简短地在Wikipedia中 )

  2. Karl Marx "Capital. A Critique of Political Economy" (briefly in Wikipedia)

    卡尔·马克思“资本。对政治经济学的批判”(简述于维基百科 )

  3. Federated learning with TensorFlow Federated (TF World '19)

    使用TensorFlow联合进行联合学习 (TF World '19)

翻译自: https://habr.com/en/post/483594/

数学家对物理学家的鄙视

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