Unit 3B - How To Make Sense Out Of Science
When scientific discoveries hit the news they are rarely as simple as the headlines suggest. They usually do not mention the years of work that lie behind the discoveries. The reports also do little to help us realize that science seldom provides answers that are final and beyond challenge.
How To Make Sense Out Of Science
David H. Levy
New Drugs Kill Cancer
Devastation by El Nino ─ a Warning
6:30 . October 26, 2028: Could This Be the Deadline for the Apocalypse
When these headlines appeared this year, their stories became the subjects of conversations around the world ─ talks spiced with optimism and confusion. Imagine the hopes raised in the millions battling cancer. Did the news mean these people never had to worry about cancer again Or that we all had to worry about a catastrophe from outer space or, more immediately, from El Nino
Unfortunately, science doesn't work that way. It rarely arrives at final answers. People battling cancer or victims of El Nino may find this frustrating, but the truth is that Nature does not yield her secrets easily. Science is done step by step. First an idea is formed. Then this is tested by an experiment. The outcome, one hopes, results in an increase in knowledge.
Science is not a set of unquestionable results but a way of understanding the world around us.
Its real work is slow. The scientific method, as many of us learned in school, is a gradual process that begins with a purpose or a problem or question to be answered. It includes a list of materials, a procedure to follow, a set of observations to make and, finally, conclusions to reach. In medicine, when a new drug is proposed that might cure or control a disease, it is first tested on a large random group of people, and their reactions are then compared with those of another random group not given the drug. All reactions in both groups are carefully recorded and compared, and the drug is evaluated. All of this takes time ─ and patience.
It's the result of course, that makes the best news ─ not the years of quiet work that characterize the bulk of scientific inquiry. After an experiment is concluded or an observation is made, the result continues to be examined critically. When it is submitted for publication, it goes to a group of the scientist's colleagues, who review the work. If the work is important enough, just before the report is published in a professional journal or read at a conference, a press release is issued and an announcement is made to the world.
The world may think that the announcement signifies the end of the process, but it doesn't. A publication is really a challenge: "Here is my result. Prove me wrong!" Other researchers will try to repeat the experiment, and the more often it works, the better the chances that the result is sound. Einstein was right when he said: "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can at any time prove me wrong."
In August 1996, NASA announced the discovery in Antarctica of a meteorite from Mars that might contain evidence of ancient life on another world. As President Clinton said that day, the possibility that life existed on Mars billions of years ago was potentially one of the great discoveries of our time.
After the excitement wore down and initial papers were published, other researchers began looking at samples from the same meteorite. Some concluded that the "evidence of life" was mostly contamination from Antarctic ice or that there was nothing organic at all in the rock.
Was this a failure of science, as some news reports trumpeted?
No! It was a good example of the scientific method working the way it is supposed to. Scientists spend years on research, announce their findings, and these findings are examined by other scientists. That's how we learn. Like climbing a mountain, we struggle up three feet and fall back two. It's a process filled with disappointments and reverses, but somehow we keep moving ahead.
参考译文——如何理解科学
科学发现成为新闻时，很少如新闻标题所显示的那么简单。新闻标题通常只字不提科学发现背后的长年努力。新闻报道也很少帮助我们认识，科学绝少提供最终的、经得住挑战的答案。
如何理解科学
大卫·H·利维
新药灭癌
厄尔·尼诺现象将带来毁灭── 一则警告
2028年10月26日下午6:30：世界末日的最后期限
这些标题于今年见诸报端时，这类新闻便成为全世界的话题——既掺有乐观又带来混乱的话题。想象一下这些新闻为成千上万与癌症抗争的人们所带来的希望。这些新闻是否意味着这些人再也不用为癌症担忧呢还是说我们所有的人都得为来自外层空间的大祸，或者更近一点，为厄尔·尼诺现象造成的灾难而忧心忡忡呢。
不幸的是，科学并非这般运作。科学极少提供最终的答案。与癌症搏斗的人们或厄尔·尼诺现象的受害者也许会觉得这太令人沮丧，但事实是，大自然并不轻易袒露其奥秘。科学研究是一步一步进行的，首先要有一个构想，然后用实验检验这个构想，人们希望其结果能成为知识的一种积累。
科学并非一组无可置疑的结果，而是认识我们周围世界的一种方法。其实际进程是缓慢的。正如我们很多人在学校里所学的那样，科学方法是一个渐进的过程，这个过程始于某个目的，或某个有待解决或回答的问题。这包括一组材料，一套必须遵循的操作步骤，一系列有待进行的观察，最后是有待得出的结论。医学上，有人提出一种新药可能医治或控制某种疾病时，先是在随意挑选的大量人群中进行试验，然后将这部分人群的用药反应与另一组随意挑选的未用此药的人群的情况进行比较。两组人群的种种反应被一一记录，仔细比较，从而对新药的疗效作出鉴定。所有这些过程需要时间——以及耐心。
成为新闻热点的当然是结果，而非长年默默无闻的努力，而长年默默无闻的努力正是绝大多数科学探索的特点。在实验有了结论，或观察结束之后，其结果仍将受到严格的检测。结果送交发表时，会由一组科学家的同行审阅。如果成果相当重要，那在专业杂志上发表或会议上宣读该实验报告之前，将会举行新闻发布会，向世人宣布。
世人也许会认为宣布结果标志整个过程的结束，其实不然。发表成果实际上是种挑战：“本人所作结论在此。请证其谬！”别的研究人员会试图重复这一实验，实验成功的次数越多，其结果就越有可能是可靠的。爱因斯坦说得对：“再多的实验也永远不能证明我正确，而一项实验随时就能证明我错误。”
1996年8月，美国国家航天和航空局宣布在南极洲发现了一颗来自火星的陨石，其中可能包含着其他星球存在古老生命的证据。正如克林顿总统那天所说，发现亿万年前火星上可能存在生命这件事, 有可能是我们时代最伟大的发现之一。
当兴奋和激动慢慢平息，首批论文发表之后，其他研究人员开始研究取自同一颗陨石的样本。有些人得出结论说，这些“生命的证据”大多来自南极冰的污染，或者说那块石头里根本就没有有机物。
这是某些新闻报道所鼓噪的科学的失败吗？
不！这正是科学研究以其应有的方式进行的一个范例。科学家经过多年研究发布成果，其成果再由其他科学家加以检验。我们就是这样增进知识的。正如爬山，我们费力爬上三英尺，又掉下去两英尺。这是个充满失望与挫折的过程，但不管怎样，我们一直往前迈进。
参考资料：
2486
被折叠的 条评论
为什么被折叠?
到【灌水乐园】发言
