Dollar Demand Is Strong, But Lending Lags Behind

全球各家银行的美元需求依然高涨，这表明银行之间的互信程度依旧脆弱。尽管有诸多指标显示信贷市场正在解冻，但经济学家央行官员和投资者正在密切关注外国银行从旗下美国分行抽调美元存款的步伐。美国财政部的数据显示，外国银行这一措施的行动速度数月来已经创下历史最高水平。分析师们表示，此举表明银行仍然在努力想办法获得融资，以投资美国抵押贷款支持债券等美元计价证券。在2007年8月信贷危机爆发前，外国银行可以随意从美国的银行或是通过互相拆借筹到美元。银行关联公司还可以发售短期债券。但现在银行正对一些贷款要求更高的贷款溢价。好的方面来说，随着银行进一步依赖美国存款，它们可以减少对此前用作紧急支撑机制的央行贷款项目的倚重程度。不过，这也显示了信贷市场状况仍然脆弱。除非银行之间建立起更多的互信，否则即便是短期借贷利率也将继续相对居高不下，加重企业和个人推动经济复苏的成本。这种状况还给伦敦银行同业拆息(Libor)带来了意外影响。Libor被认为是反映银行之间互相拆借的利率。目前1个月Libor和3个月Libor之间出现了较宽的利差，分析师们称这是个令人担忧的迹象，表明银行仍然不愿互相提供较长期的贷款。截至上周五，3个月美元Libor报1.01%，较1个月贷款利率高出0.59个百分点。过去这个利差接近于零。美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)已经在向欧洲央行(ECB)英国央行(BOE)和其他央行提供美元贷款，然后再通过各国央行将这些美元贷给全球各国银行。这些央行举措正在发挥作用的一个迹象是，Libor已经急剧下滑：截至上周五，1个月美元Libor略高于0.41%，去年10月则高达4.59%。由于银行间的短期信贷依然吃紧，美国以外的银行正在寻找其他方法满足它们对美元的需求。美国财政部最新数据显示，今年1月份这些银行从旗下美国分行调取了1,230亿美元，2月份又通过借贷获取了1,450亿美元。这和此前数月的状况构成了鲜明对比。国际清算银行(BIS)的数据显示，2008年底的时候，美国以外银行共持有9.6万亿美元的美元计价资产，这是此前经济繁荣期金融行业的迅猛全球化的结果。随着金融危机爆发，美国各家银行不再向外国银行提供它们维持这些投资所需的美元资金，从而引发了严重的现金短缺。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师认为，外国银行之所以从旗下美国分行抽调存款，是因为这比它们从央行借贷美元便宜。举例来说，美联储发放给其他央行的未偿还美元贷款今年1月和2月的下滑规模大体相当于外国银行从旗下美国分行抽调的美元资金规模。这一转变还可能折射出外国银行向央行贷款所用的抵押资产遭到评级下调，这会加大银行向央行借款的难度和成本。花旗集团(Citigroup)美国利率分析师Scott Peng在3月份的一份报告中说，1个月和3个月Libor之间的持续利差可能会加重银行的负担。这是因为银行为存款和其他借款所支付的利率通常是与3个月Libor关联的。而贷款和其他投资所带来的利息收入一般是与1个月Libor挂钩的。Peng认为，这一利差会促使银行对贷款收取更高的利息。Carrick Mollenkamp相关阅读中芯国际首席执行长：公司并无筹资计划 2009-04-30白宫施压信用卡改革 为持卡人减负 2009-04-24盖特纳：救助资金偿还取决于整体信贷状况 2009-04-21美国受助银行发放贷款减少 2009-04-16


The dollar remains in heavy demand from banks around the world, a sign trust among banks remains fragile.While a number of indicators show credit markets are thawing, economists, central bankers and investors are paying keen attention to the rate at which foreign banks are pulling dollar deposits out of their U.S. branches. That pace has set records for several months, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department. The moves, analysts say, suggest banks still are scrambling for ways to finance investments in dollar-denominated securities such as U.S. mortgage-backed bonds.Before the credit crisis hit in August 2007, foreign banks could freely borrow dollars from U.S. banks and one another. Bank affiliates also could sell short-term IOUs. Now banks are demanding bigger lending premiums for certain loans.On the bright side, the banks' increased reliance on U.S. deposits is making them less dependent on central-bank lending programs, which were put in place as an emergency backstop. Still, it also demonstrates how brittle the lending markets remain. Until banks develop more trust among one another, even short-term borrowing rates will remain relatively expensive, making economic recovery more costly for businesses and individuals.This has had an unexpected effect on the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, which is supposed to reflect the interest rates banks charge each other for loans. A large gap has appeared between the one-month and three-month Libor, in what analysts say is a worrying sign that banks remain reluctant to make longer-term loans to one another. As of Friday, three-month dollar Libor was 1.01%, 0.59 percentage point more than the rate on one-month loans. Historically the gap hovered close to zero.The Federal Reserve has been providing dollar loans to the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and other central banks, which lend those dollars to banks around the world. In one sign central bankers' efforts have been working, Libor has fallen sharply: As of Friday, one-month dollar Libor stood at a little more than 0.41%, compared with 4.59% in October.With short-term lending among banks still tight, non-U.S. banks are seeking other ways to satisfy their hunger for dollars. According to the latest data available from the Treasury, they pulled $123 billion from their U.S. branches in January and another $145 billion in February through borrowings. That is a sharp turnaround from prior months.As of the end of 2008, banks outside the U.S. held $9.6 trillion in dollar-denominated assets, in a legacy of the heady financial globalization of the boom years, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Amid the financial crisis, U.S. banks stopped lending foreign banks the dollars they needed to finance those investments, triggering an acute cash shortage.Analysts at Morgan Stanley say foreign banks are tapping deposits in their U.S. branches because it is cheaper than borrowing dollars from central banks. The amount of the Fed's outstanding dollar loans to other central banks, for example, fell in January and February by roughly the same amount that foreign banks pulled out of their U.S. branches.The shift also could be a reflection of ratings downgrades on the assets that banks use as collateral for central-bank loans, which would make it more difficult and expensive to use central-bank financing.In a report in March, Scott Peng, a U.S. interest-rate analyst at Citigroup Inc., said the continuing gap between one-month and three-month Libor could be costly for banks. That is because the rates they pay on deposits and other borrowings are typically linked to three-month Libor. The interest income received from loans and other investments often is pegged to one-month Libor. Mr. Peng said the gap could prompt banks to charge higher rates on loans.Carrick Mollenkamp