三门问题

问题解析的分析链接.
这幅图片也非常的直观：

import random
def guess_car(N, change=False): # N表示一共有多少门
    num_list = list(range(N))
    car_num = random.randint(0, N-1) #正真的车所在的门编号
    my_num = random.randint(0, N-1) # 观众猜测的编号   
    
    # 如果不换编号的话：
    if change == False:
        return 1 if car_num == my_num else 0
    
    #如果换编号的话：
    if my_num == car_num: # 如果观众选到的号码正好是车所在的编号，那么主持人从N-1扇门中随便打开。否则从N-2扇门中随便打开
        num_list.remove(my_num)
    else:
        num_list.remove(my_num)
        host_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
        while host_num == car_num or host_num == my_num:
            host_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
        num_list.remove(host_num) 
    while my_num not in num_list:
        my_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
    return 1 if car_num == my_num else 0
        
    

epoch = 100000 # 重复实验的次数
sum_count = 3 # 一共有多少扇门
guess_model = [False, True]

for model in guess_model:
    count = 0 # 统计猜对的次数
    for i in range(epoch):
        count += guess_goat(sum_count,model)
    print("转换选择猜对成功率: " if guess_model else "不转换选择猜对成功率: " ,"{:.2f}%".format(count / epoch * 100))
------------------------------------------results
转换选择猜对成功率:  33.12%
转换选择猜对成功率:  66.58%        

由实验也可以得出：
不更换选择得奖概率：$\frac{1}{3}$
更换选择得奖概率：$\frac{2}{3}$