问题解析的分析链接.
这幅图片也非常的直观:
import random
def guess_car(N, change=False): # N表示一共有多少门
num_list = list(range(N))
car_num = random.randint(0, N-1) #正真的车所在的门编号
my_num = random.randint(0, N-1) # 观众猜测的编号
# 如果不换编号的话:
if change == False:
return 1 if car_num == my_num else 0
#如果换编号的话:
if my_num == car_num: # 如果观众选到的号码正好是车所在的编号,那么主持人从N-1扇门中随便打开。否则从N-2扇门中随便打开
num_list.remove(my_num)
else:
num_list.remove(my_num)
host_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
while host_num == car_num or host_num == my_num:
host_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
num_list.remove(host_num)
while my_num not in num_list:
my_num = random.randint(0, N-1)
return 1 if car_num == my_num else 0
epoch = 100000 # 重复实验的次数
sum_count = 3 # 一共有多少扇门
guess_model = [False, True]
for model in guess_model:
count = 0 # 统计猜对的次数
for i in range(epoch):
count += guess_goat(sum_count,model)
print("转换选择猜对成功率: " if guess_model else "不转换选择猜对成功率: " ,"{:.2f}%".format(count / epoch * 100))
------------------------------------------results
转换选择猜对成功率: 33.12%
转换选择猜对成功率: 66.58%
由实验也可以得出:
不更换选择得奖概率:
1
3
\frac{1}{3}
31
更换选择得奖概率:
2
3
\frac{2}{3}
32