8.2英语学习

今日读书笔记

Law of small numbers: Extreme outcomes (both high and low) are more likely to be found in small than in large samples.
Which means that if data shows that the percentage of cancer patients is lower/higher in smaller countries, it doesn’t mean the incidence of cancer is truly so. It just appears due to accident of sampling. This results in artefact, observations that are produced entirely by some aspect of method of research.
Problems posed by sampling variation:
Psychologists commonly chose samples so small that they exposed themselves to a 50% risk of failing to confirm their true hypothesis. The reflects prevalent intuitive misconceptions of extent of sampling variation.
Why is this happening?
//hypothesis：有少量事实依据但未被证实的假说

1. Human brain is wired such that when we counter a data, we either sift the story out, or we reject the information totally.
2. System 1 is not prone to doubt. In fact, it suppresses ambiguity and spontaneity, constructing stories that are as coherent as possible. Unless the message is immediately negated, the associations that it evokes will spread as if the message were true.
   // be prone to :倾向于
3. System 2 is capable of doubt, because it can maintain incompatible possibilities at the same time. However, sustaining doubt is harder work than sliding into certainty.
4. Manifestation of a general bias that favours certainty over doubt.
5. We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see. This is the halo effect: the sense we often get that we know and understand a person about whom we actually know very little.
6. We don’t expect to see regularity produced by a random process, and when we detect what appears to be a rule, we quickly reject the idea that the process is truly random.
7. We pay more attention to the content of the message than to information about their reliability, and as a result end up with a view of the world around us that is simpler and more coherent than the data justified.
   //justified：正当的

英语学习笔记整理：

因为你知道，中美经贸磋商一年多来，是谁出尔反尔、言而无信、反复无常，大家都有目共睹。而中方对于经贸磋商的立场始终如一。

We all know who has been flip-flopping in the trade talks over the past year or so. In contrast, China’s position remains consistent.

注：flip-flop作名词是指人字拖，作动词指改变立场，尤指转持相反观点，来一个180度的大转弯。一个词即翻译出“出尔反尔、言而无信、反复无常”的意思，既简洁有力，又生动形象，易于理解。

• 事实上，自己生病，却让别人吃药，也是没有任何用的。
  In fact, it’s useless to ask others to take pills when the US is ill itself.

• 我认为，在经贸磋商问题上，美方应该更多地展现诚意和诚信。
  I believe the US needs to show more sincerity and good faith on this issue.

• 还执迷于居高临下对他国事务指手画脚的恶习当中。
  He is obsessed with condescendingly criticizing other countries.

• 仍然不思悔改，继续信口雌黄。
  He keeps lying without remorse.

• 英方动不动就以“守护者”自居，这纯粹是自作多情、痴心妄想。
  Claiming itself the guardian of Hong Kong is nothing more than self-entertaining.

• 这种说法简直是厚颜无耻！
  How brazen is that!

• 亨特先生罔顾事实，居然称特区政府是在“镇压”，这完全是颠倒黑白。
  In total disregard of facts, Mr. Hunt called the SAR government’s response “repression”. That is entirely misleading.

• 如果英国议会被围攻、被闯入、被破坏，英政府会听之任之、坐视不管吗？
  If it were the British Parliament that had been stormed and vandalized, what would the British government do? Will it sit by idly and let the protesters have their way?

• 中国不是吓大的。
  Threats and intimidation will never work on China.

• 一段时间以来，一些美国政客揣着同一个唱本，满世界污蔑中伤中国，到处煽风点火，挑拨离间，言行令人不齿。
  I need to point out that for quite some time, certain US politicians have been touring the globe with the same script in their pockets to smear China, starting fires and fanning the flames and sowing discords. Such behaviors are really beneath their dignity.

• 谎言就是谎言，说上一千遍还是谎言，蓬佩奥先生可以休矣！
  A lie will remain a lie, even if repeated a thousand times. Monsieur Pompeo might as well take a break.

2018年1月，时任美国中情局局长的蓬佩奥在接受BBC专访时称中国正在设法偷窃美国的情报，并在全球隐秘地传播中国的影响力。
此外，澳大利亚方面也说目前正面临史无前例的情报渗透和间谍威胁，中国被澳情报部门列为“极端威胁”。
2月1日，华春莹用“相由心生”回应美澳“中国间谍威胁论”。*

• 我注意到有关报道，不禁想起中国有句话，叫“相由心生”，意思是，你心里怎么想，你眼里的世界就是什么样。从这个意义上讲，世界上最大的情报头目说出那样的话，并不奇怪。

These reports remind me of a Chinese saying, one’s mentality will determine how they see the world. It doesn’t surprise me in the slightest that such remarks were made by a person who heads the world’s largest intelligence agency.