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查乐视50寸某款彩电:
京东价: 3879.00元
云联惠价格: 4800.00
消费者实际多花了1000.00元,即价格超过实际价格的23.7%(或者说,对云联惠价格而言,其中总额的19.2%是加出来的钱)
下面,我们建立数学模型,来推算多久你花的冤枉钱会回来......
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考虑云联惠返回的不是总额的比例,而是省下钱的比例,因此
假设总量为1,每天返回总额比例为alpha, 则第N天剩余未返回数为:
Xn = Xn-1 * ( 1- alpha)
采用数学归纳法,可推导:
Xn = (1-alpha)^N
在第N天,你实际到手(按付出总量为1来计算)
= 1 - Xn
= 1 - (1-alpha)^N
计算返回率为return_back_percent时,需要的天数:
return_back_percent = 1 - (1-alpha)^N
(1-recent_back_percent) = (1 - alpha)^N
需要天数为:
N = ln(1-return_back_percent)/ln(1-alpha)
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计算机计算结果:
下面为日返回率0.05%情况下,总额返回0.99,0.8,0.6,0.4,0.2,0.1不同情况下所需的天数,后面以此类推!
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everyday_return_rate, everday_return_percent, NEED_Days
0.0005 0.99 9208.03759495
0.0005 0.8 3218.07103884
0.0005 0.6 1832.12328019
0.0005 0.4 1021.39581343
0.0005 0.2 446.175521553 # 你大概需要1.5年,才能把你的冤枉钱取回(即总额的20%)
0.0005 0.1 210.668346667
后面为考虑兑换率变小情况下所需的天数
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everyday_return_rate, everday_return_percent, NEED_Days
0.0004 0.99 11510.6227263
0.0004 0.8 4022.79000847
0.0004 0.6 2290.26865377
0.0004 0.4 1276.80862957
0.0004 0.2 557.74729907 #如果日返回0.04%,那么你需要接近2年才能取回你的冤枉钱!
0.0004 0.1 263.348605374
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
0.0003 0.99 15348.2645864
0.0003 0.8 5363.98828225
0.0003 0.6 3053.8442713
0.0003 0.4 1702.49665364
0.0003 0.2 743.700260359 #如果日返回0.03%,那么你需要2年多才能取回你的冤枉钱!
0.0003 0.1 351.149035967
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
0.0002 0.99 23023.5482681
0.0002 0.8 8046.38481639
0.0002 0.6 4580.99549873
0.0002 0.4 2553.8726975
0.0002 0.2 1115.60618108 #如果日返回0.02%,那么你需要3年才能取回你的冤枉钱!
0.0002 0.1 526.749896275
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
0.0001 0.99 46049.3992364
0.0001 0.8 16093.574392
0.0001 0.6 9162.44916574
0.0001 0.4 5108.00082059
0.0001 0.2 2231.32393951 #如果日返回0.01%,那么你需要6年才能取回你的冤枉钱!
0.0001 0.1 1053.55247544
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
5e-05 0.99 92101.1011155
5e-05 0.8 32187.953523
5e-05 0.6 18325.3564883
5e-05 0.4 10216.2570604
5e-05 0.2 4462.75945358 #如果日返回0.005%,那么你需要10多年才能取回你的冤枉钱!
5e-05 0.1 2107.15763246
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
2.5e-05 0.99 184204.504844
2.5e-05 0.8 64376.7117749
2.5e-05 0.6 36651.1711276
2.5e-05 0.4 20432.7695367
2.5e-05 0.2 8925.63048031 #后面是更极端的模型!
2.5e-05 0.1 4214.36794583
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
5e-06 0.99 921031.734605
5e-06 0.8 321886.777765
5e-06 0.6 183257.688228
5e-06 0.4 102164.86934
5e-06 0.2 44628.5986907
5e-06 0.1 21072.0504511
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
2.5e-06 0.99 1842065.7718
2.5e-06 0.8 643774.36025
2.5e-06 0.6 366515.834602
2.5e-06 0.4 204329.994092
2.5e-06 0.2 89257.3089533
2.5e-06 0.1 42144.1535826
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everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days
5e-07 0.99 9210338.07015
5e-07 0.8 3218875.02041
5e-07 0.6 1832581.00575
5e-07 0.4 1021650.9922
5e-07 0.2 446286.991093
5e-07 0.1 210720.978653
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#下面为计算机源代码
import math
max_rate = 0.0005 # max return rate
a=(1,0.8,0.6,0.4,0.2,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.005,0.001) # actual return rate, considering max is 0.0005
return_back = (0.99,0.8,0.6,0.4,0.2,0.1)
for per in a:
print "--------------------------------------------------------"
print "everyday_return_rate, total_return_percent,NEED_Days"
for back_per in return_back:
day = math.log(1-back_per) / math.log(1-per*max_rate)
print per*max_rate, back_per, day # output how many days are needed!