2024美赛E题思路：财产保险的可持续性Sustainability of Property Insurance

解析：E题思路传送

极端天气事件正在成为业主和保险公司的危机。世界经受住了考验
“近年来，1000多起极端天气事件造成的损失超过1万亿美元。”
[1] 这
保险业在 2022 年因自然灾害而提出的索赔“与 30 年相比增加了 115%
一般。
[1] 由于恶劣天气相关事件可能造成的损失，预计情况会变得更糟
由于洪水、飓风、旋风、干旱和野火而增加。保险费
预计到2040年，气候变化将增加30-60%。
[1]
作为保险公司，财产保险不仅越来越贵，而且更难找到
改变他们愿意承保保单的方式和地点。与天气有关的事件
推动财产保险费的成本看起来不同，具体取决于您所在的位置
世界。此外，全球保险保障缺口平均为57%，并且还在不断扩大。
[2] 这个
凸显了该行业的困境——保险公司的盈利能力和负担能力方面出现了危机
对于业主。
COMAP的巨灾建模保险（ICM）对财产的可持续性感兴趣
保险业。随着气候变化增加更恶劣天气和自然的可能性
灾难，ICM希望确定现在如何最好地准备财产保险，以便有弹性
在系统中支付未来索赔的费用，同时也确保保险的长期健康
公司。如果保险公司不愿意在太多情况下承保保单，他们就会去
由于客户太少而倒闭。相反，如果他们承保的保单风险太大，他们就会
可能会支付太多索赔。保险公司应该在什么情况下承保保单？什么时候
他们应该选择冒险吗？业主可以做些什么来影响这一点
决定？为保险公司开发模型Extreme-weather events are becoming a crisis for property owners and insurers. The world has endured
“more than $1 trillion in damages from more than 1,000 extreme-weather events in recent years.”
[1] The
insurance industry saw claims for natural disasters in 2022 increase by “115% compared to the 30-year
average.”
[1] Conditions are expected to get worse as losses from severe weather-related events are likely
to increase due to floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and wildfires. Premiums for insurance coverage
are rising quickly, with climate change fueling projected increases of 30-60% by 2040.
[1]
Property insurance is not only getting more expensive, but also harder to find, as insurance companies
change how and where they are willing to underwrite policies. The weather-related occurrences
propelling the cost of property insurance premiums look different depending on where you are in the
world. Additionally, the insurance protection gap averages 57% worldwide and is increasing.
[2] This
highlights the industry’s dilemma - the emerging crisis in profitability for the insurers and in affordability
for the property owners.
COMAP’s Insurance of Catastrophes Modelers (ICM) are interested in the sustainability of the property
insurance industry. As climate change increases the likelihood of more severe weather and natural
disasters, ICM wants to determine how best to posture property insurance now such that there is resilience
in the system to cover the cost of future claims while also ensuring long-term health of insurance
companies. If insurance companies are unwilling to underwrite policies in too many cases, they will go
out of business due to too few customers. Conversely, if they underwrite policies that are too risky, they
may pay too many claims. Under what conditions should insurance companies underwrite policies? When
should they choose to take the risk? Is there anything a property owner could do to influence this
decision? Develop a model for insurance companie美赛、数学建模、美国大学生数学建模、美赛思路、美国大学生数学建模思路、2024美赛、2024美国大学生数学建模竞赛、2024美赛思路、2024美赛数据、2024美赛A题、2024美赛B题、2024美赛C题、2024美赛D题、2024美赛E题、2024美赛F题、 2024美赛数据、2024美赛论文、2024美赛解析、2024美赛思路、美国大学生数学建模竞赛思路、美赛解析、美赛免费思路