2024年 A题
While some animal species exist outside of the usual male or female sexes, most species are substantially either male or female. Although many species exhibit a 1:1 sex ratio at birth, other species deviate from an even sex ratio. This is called adaptive sex ratio variation. For example, the temperature of the nest incubating eggs of the American alligator influences the sex ratios at birth.The role of lampreys is complex. In some lake habitats, they are seen as parasites with a significant impact on the ecosystem, whereas lampreys are also a food source in some regions of the world, such as Scandinavia, the Baltics, and for some Indigenous peoples of the Pacific Northwest in North America.The sex ratio of sea lampreys can vary based on external circumstances. Sea lampreys become male or female depending on how quickly they grow during the larval stage. These larval growth rates are influenced by the availability of food. In environments where food availability is low, growth rates will be lower, and the percentage of males can reach approximately 78% of the population. In environments where food is more readily available, the percentage of males has been observed to be approximately 56% of the population.We focus on the question of sex ratios and their dependence on local conditions, specifically for sea lampreys. Sea lampreys live in lake or sea habitats and migrate up rivers to spawn. The task is to examine the advantages and disadvantages of the ability for a species to alter its sex ratio depending on resource availability. Your team should develop and examine a model to provide insights into the resulting interactions in an ecosystem.
虽然一些动物物种的存在不属于通常的雄性或雌性，但大多数物种基本上都是雄性或雌性。虽然许多物种在出生时表现出1:1的性别比例，但其他物种偏离了均匀的性别比例。这被称为适应性性别比变化。例如，美洲鳄孵化卵的巢的温度会影响出生时的性别比例。七鳃鳗的角色很复杂。在一些湖泊栖息地，它们被视为对生态系统有重大影响的寄生虫，而七鳃鳗也是世界上一些地区的食物来源，如斯堪的纳维亚半岛、波罗的海和北美太平洋西北地区的一些土著人民。海七鳃鳗的性别比例会根据外部环境而变化。七鳃鳗在幼虫阶段的发育速度决定了它们的雌雄。这些幼虫的生长速度受到食物供应的影响。在食物供应不足的环境中，生长速度会更低，雄性的比例可以达到人口的78%左右。在食物更容易获得的环境中，据观察，雄性的比例约占人口的56%。我们的重点是性别比例问题及其对当地条件的依赖，特别是对于海七鳃鳗。七鳃鳗生活在湖泊或海洋栖息地，并向上游洄游产卵。这项任务是检查一个物种根据资源可用性改变其性别比例的能力的利弊。您的团队应该开发和检查一个模型，以提供对生态系统中产生的交互的见解。
Questions to examine include the following:
What is the impact on the larger ecological system when the population of lampreys can alter its sex ratio?
What are the advantages and disadvantages to the population of lampreys?
What is the impact on the stability of the ecosystem given the changes in the sex ratios of lampreys?
Can an ecosystem with variable sex ratios in the lamprey population offer advantages to others in the ecosystem, such as parasites?
需要审查的问题包括:当七鳃鳗的种群可以改变其性别比例时，对更大的生态系统有什么影响?七鳃鳗种群的优势和劣势是什么?七鳃鳗性别比例的变化对生态系统的稳定性有什么影响?七鳃鳗种群性别比例变化的生态系统能否为生态系统中的其他物种(如寄生虫)提供优势?
References:
[1] Braidwood, J. (2023), Novak Djokovic has created a unique rival – is Wimbledon defeat
the beginning of the end, The Independent,
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-wimbledon-final-carlos-alcarazb2376600.html.
[2] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/momentum
[3] Rivera, J. (2023), Tennis scoring, explained: A guide to understanding the rules terms &point system at Wimbledon, The Sporting News,
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/tennis/news/tennis-scoring-explained-rules-system-pointsterms/7uzp2evdhbd11obdd59p3p1cx.
2024 B题
Maritime Cruises Mini-Submarines (MCMS), a company based in Greece, builds submersibles capable of carrying humans to the deepest parts of the ocean. A submersible is moved to the location and deployed untethered from a host ship. MCMS now wishes to use their submersible to take tourists on adventures exploring the bottom of the Ionian Sea for sunken shipwrecks. Before they can do this, however, they need to win approval from regulators by developing safety procedures in case of a loss of communication to the host ship and possible mechanical defects including a loss of propulsion of the submersible. In particular, they would like you to develop a model to predict the location of the submersible over time. Unlike in a typical search and rescue on land or on the surface of a sea, the defective submersible could potentially find itself positioned on the sea floor or at some point of neutral buoyancy underwater. Its position could further be affected by currents, differing densities in the sea, and/or the geography of the sea floor. Your tasks are to:
希腊一家名为“海上巡航迷你潜艇”(MCMS)的公司制造的潜水器能够将人类送到海洋的最深处。一艘潜水器被移动到该地点，并与主船脱离。MCMS现在希望用他们的潜水器带领游客冒险探索爱奥尼亚海底的沉船残骸。然而，在此之前，他们需要制定安全程序，以获得监管机构的批准，以防与主船失去通信，以及可能出现的机械缺陷，包括潜水器失去推进力。他们特别希望你能建立一个模型来预测潜水器随时间的位置。与在陆地或海面上进行的典型搜救不同，有缺陷的潜水器可能会发现自己位于海底或水下某个中性浮力点。它的位置可能进一步受到洋流、海洋中不同密度和/或海底地理的影响。你的任务是:
Locate - Develop a model(s) that predicts the location of the submersible over time.What are the uncertainties associated with these predictions?What information can the submersible periodically send to the host ship to decrease these uncertainties prior to an incident? What kinds of equipment would the submersible need to do so?Prepare - What, if any, additional search equipment would you recommend the company carry on the host ship to deploy if necessary? You may consider different types of equipment but must also consider costs associated with availability, maintenance, readiness, and usage of this equipment. What additional equipment might a rescue vessel need to bring in to assist if necessary?Search - Develop a model that will use information from your location model(s) to recommend initial points of deployment and search patterns for the equipment so as to minimize the time to location of a lost submersible. Determine the probability of finding the submersible as a function of time and accumulated search results.Extrapolate - How might your model be expanded to account for other tourist destinations such as the Caribbean Sea? How will your model change to account for multiple submersibles moving in the same general vicinity?Prepare a report of no more than 25 pages providing the details of your plan. Include a two-pagememo of your report addressed to the Greek government to help win approval.
定位-开发一个模型，预测潜水器随时间的位置。与这些预测相关的不确定性是什么?在事故发生之前，潜水器可以定期向主船发送哪些信息来减少这些不确定性?潜水器需要什么样的设备?
准备——如果有的话，你会建议公司在主船上携带什么额外的搜索设备，以便在必要时部署?您可以考虑不同类型的设备，但也必须考虑与该设备的可用性，
维护，准备和使用相关的成本。如果有需要，救援船可能需要携带哪些额外设备来协助?搜索-开发一个模型，该模型将使用您的位置模型中的信息来推荐设备的初始部署点和搜索模式，从而最大限度地减少找到失踪潜水器的时间。确定找到潜水器的概率作为时间和累积搜索结果的函数。
外推——你的模型如何扩展到其他旅游目的地，比如加勒比海?你的模型将如何改变，以考虑多个潜水器在同一附近移动?准备一份不超过25页的报告，提供你的计划的细节。包括两页纸给希腊政府的报告备忘录，以帮助获得批准。
2024 C题
In the 2023 Wimbledon Gentlemen’s final, 20-year-old Spanish rising star Carlos Alcaraz defeated 36-year-old Novak Djokovic. The loss was Djokovic’s first at Wimbledon since 2013 and ended a remarkable run for one of the all-time great players in Grand Slams.The match itself was a remarkable battle.I11 Djokovic seemed destined to win easily as he dominated the first set 6 - 1 (winning 6 of 7 games). The second set, however, was tense and finally won by Alcarez in a tie-breaker 7 -6. The third set was the reverse of the first, Alcaraz winning handily 6-1. The young Spaniard seemed in total control as the fourth set started, but somehow the match again changed course with Djokovic taking complete control to win the set 6 -3. The fifth and final set started with Djokovic carrying the edge from the fourth set, but again a change of direction occurred and Alcaraz gained control and the victory 6-4. The data for this match is in the provided data set, “match_id” of “2023-wimbledon-1701”. You can see all the points for the first set when Djokovic had the edge using the “set_no” column equal to 1. The incredible swings, sometimes for many points or even games, that occurred in the player who seemed to have the advantage are often attributed to “momentum.”One dictionary definition of momentum is "strength or force gained by motion or by a series ofevents."2l In sports, a team or player may feel they have the momentum, or "strength/force"during a match/game, but it is difficult to measure such a phenomenon. Further, it is not readilyapparent how various events during the match act to create or change momentum if it exists.Data is provided for every point from all Wimbledon 2023 men’s matches after the first 2 rounds. You may choose to include additional player information or other data at your discretion, but you must completely document the sources. Use the data to:
在2023年温布尔登男单决赛中，20岁的西班牙新星卡洛斯·阿尔卡拉兹击败了36岁的诺瓦克·德约科维奇。这是德约科维奇自2013年以来在温布尔登的首次失利，也终结了这位历史上最伟大的大满贯选手之一的辉煌战绩。这场比赛本身就是一场非凡的战斗。德约科维奇似乎注定要轻松获胜，因为他以6比1控制了第一局(7局中赢了6局)。然而，第二局气氛紧张，最终阿尔卡雷斯在抢七局中以7 -6获胜。第三局与第一局相反，阿尔卡拉斯以6-1轻松获胜。这位年轻的西班牙人在第四盘开始时似乎完全控制了比赛，但不知怎么的，比赛再次改变了方向，德约科维奇完全控制了比赛，以6比3赢得了比赛。第五盘也是最后一盘，德约科维奇从第四盘开始保持优势，但再次改变方向，阿尔卡拉兹获得控制并以6-4获胜。本次比赛的数据在提供的数据集中，“match_id”为“2023-wimbledon-1701”。你可以用“set_no”列= 1看到德约科维奇在第一盘领先时的所有得分。令人难以置信的挥杆，有时是在许多分甚至是比赛中，发生在似乎有优势的球员身上，通常被归因于“势头”。字典上对动量的一个定义是“通过运动或一系列动作获得的强度或力”事件。在体育运动中，一个团队或运动员可能会觉得他们有动力，或“力量/力量”。在一场比赛/比赛中，这种现象很难测量。此外，它并不容易很明显，比赛中的各种事件如何创造或改变动量(如果存在的话)。2023年温布尔登男单前两轮之后的每一分数据。你可以选择包含额外的玩家信息或其他数据，但你必须完整地记录这些来源。使用这些数据:
Develop a model that captures the flow of play as points occur and apply it to one or more of the matches. Your model should identify which player is performing better ata given time in the match, as well as how much better they are performing. Provide a visualization based on your model to depict the match flow. Note: in tennis, the player serving has a much higher probability of winning the point/game. You may wish to factor this into your model in some way.
开发一个模型，捕捉得分发生时的游戏流程，并将其应用于一场或多场比赛。你的模型应该确定哪个玩家表现更好在比赛中给定的时间，以及他们的表现有多好。提供基于您的模型的可视化来描述匹配流。注:在网球比赛中，发球的选手赢得得分/比赛的可能性要大得多。您可能希望以某种方式将此因素纳入您的模型中。
A tennis coach is skeptical that “momentum” plays any role in the match. Instead, he postulates that swings in play and runs of success by one player are random. Use your model/metric to assess this claim.
一位网球教练对“气势”在比赛中起作用持怀疑态度。相反，他假设一个玩家在游戏中的波动和成功的运行是随机的。使用你的模型/指标来评估这种说法。
Coaches would love to know if there are indicators that can help determine when the flow of play is about to change from favoring one player to the other.
· Using the data provided for at least one match, develop a model that predicts these swings in the match. What factors seem most related (if any)?
· Given the differential in past match “momentum” swings how do you advise a player going into a new match against a different player?
Test the model you developed on one or more of the other matches. How well do you predict the swings in the match? If the model performs poorly at times, can you identify any factors that might need to be included in future models? How generalizable is your model to other matches (such as Women’s matches), tournaments, court surfaces, and other sports such as table tennis.Produce a report of no more than 25 pages with your findings and include a one- to two-page memo summarizing your results with advice for coaches on the role of “momentum”, and how to prepare players to respond to events that impact the flow of play during a tennis match.
教练们很想知道是否有一些指标可以帮助确定比赛流程何时会从一个球员转变为另一个球员。
·使用为至少一场比赛提供的数据，开发一个模型来预测比赛中的这些波动。哪些因素似乎最相关(如果有的话)?考虑到过去比赛中“动量”波动的不同，你如何建议一名球员进入一场与不同球员的新比赛?在一个或多个其他匹配上测试您开发的模型。
你对比赛结果的预测有多准确?如果模型有时表现不佳，您能否确定可能需要包括在未来模型中的任何因素?您的模型对其他比赛(如女子比赛)、锦标赛、球场表面和其他运动(如乒乓球)的通用性如何?写出一份不超过25页的报告，包括一到两页的备忘录，总结你的结果，给教练关于“势头”的作用的建议，以及如何让球员准备好应对影响网球比赛过程的事件。
Files provided:Wimbledon_featured_matches.csv- data set of Wimbledon 2023 Gentlemen’sd singles matches after second round.data_dictionary.csv — description of the data set.data_examples — examples to help understand the provided data.
提供的文件:
Wimbledon_featured_matches.csv- 2023年温网男单第二轮后的比赛数据集。
csv -数据集的描述。
Data_examples—帮助理解所提供数据的示例。
Glossary
Grand Slam: The Grand Slam in tennis is the achievement of winning all four major championships in one discipline in a calendar year. The four Grand Slam tournaments are the Australian Open, the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open, with each played over two weeks.
术语表
大满贯:网球的大满贯是在一个日历年内赢得一个项目的所有四个大满贯的成就。四项大满贯赛事分别是澳大利亚网球公开赛、法国网球公开赛、温布尔登网球公开赛和美国网球公开赛，每项比赛都持续两周。
Glossary of key terms/concepts:
Scoring:【3】
Match: best of five sets (for Gentlemen’s matches at Wimbledon)
Set: collection of games; 6 games win a set, but players must win by two games until the set is tied 6- 6 when a tie-breaker is played (see below)
Game: collection of points; a player wins when reaching 4 points but must win by two. See "scoring a game” below.
关键术语/概念词汇表:
得分:[3]
比赛:五局四胜制(温布尔登男子赛)
集合:游戏集合;6局赢一局，但选手必须先赢两局，直到比赛打成6-6平局(见下文)。游戏:收集点数;当达到4分时获胜，但必须赢得2分。请参阅下面的“为游戏得分”。
Scoring a game:[3]
0 points = Love
1 point =15
2 points = 30
3 points = 40
Tied score = All (e.g., “30 all”)
40-40=Deuce (players have won the same number of points, at least 3 points each)
Server wins a deuce point =Ad-in (or “advantage in”)
Receiver wins a deuce point = Ad-out
单场得分:[3]
0分=Love
1分=15分
2分= 30分
3分= 40分
平局=所有(例如，“30平”)
40-40=平分(玩家获得相同数量的分数，每人至少3分)
发球者赢得一个平局点=Ad-in(或“优势”)
接球者赢得一分平局=出局
Serve: players alternate games as the “server” (the player who hits the initial shot of a point) and “returner.” In professional tennis, the server tends to have a big advantage. A player is given two serves to put the ball in play (into the “service box”) on each point. Failure to hit a serve in play in two attempts is a “double fault” and the returning player is awarded the point.
发球:玩家在游戏中交替扮演“发球者”(最先击球的玩家)和“接发球者”。在职业网球比赛中，发球者往往有很大的优势。在每个点，球员有两次发球机会将球送入发球区。在比赛中连续两次发球失败是“双误”，回发球者得分。
Breaking serve-when the returning player wins a game.
Break point -a point in which if the returner wins, they would win the game.
Holding serve -when the serving player wins the game.
破发发球——当返回的球员赢得一场比赛。
破发点——在这个点上，如果回击者赢了，他们就会赢得比赛。
持球——当发球选手赢得比赛时。
Tie-breakers: each set ends when a player has won 6 games, as long as they are ahead by at least two games (i.e., 6-4). If not, play continues until a tie at 6-6 is reached. At this point a tie-breaker is played. At Wimbledon tie-breakers are first to 7 points (must win by 2 points) except in the 5th set of a match when it is first to 10 points (must win by 2 points).
决胜局:当一名球员赢得6局时，只要他们领先至少两局(即6-4)，每一局结束。如果没有，比赛继续，直到6比6打成平手。这时，决胜局开始了。在温网比赛中，抢七是先赢7分(必须赢2分)，但在比赛的第5局，先赢10分(必须赢2分)除外。
Rest breaks/sides of court: players switch sides of the court after game 1 and then after every two games. 90 second rest breaks are allowed starting at the 3d game at every change of sides. During tie-breakers, players change sides every six points. Players also rest for at least 2 minutes after the conclusion of each set. Medical timeouts and one bathroom break are permitted.
休息时间/场边:球员在第一场比赛后更换场边，然后每两场比赛后更换场边。在第3场比赛中，每次换防时允许90秒的休息时间。在决胜局中，球员每得6分换边。每盘比赛结束后，选手至少休息2分钟。医疗暂停和一次洗手间是允许的。
2024 D题
Background
The Great Lakes of the United States and Canada are the largest group of freshwater lakes in the world. The five lakes and connecting waterways constitute a massive drainage basin that contains many large urban areas in these two countries, with varied climate and localized weather conditions.
背景
美国和加拿大的五大湖是世界上最大的淡水湖群。这五个湖泊和相连的水道构成了一个巨大的流域，包含了这两个国家的许多大城市，气候和当地天气条件各不相同。
The lakes’ water is used for many purposes (fishing, recreation, power generation, drinking, shipping, animal and fish habitat, construction, irrigation, etc.). Consequently, a vast variety of stakeholders have an interest in the management of the water that flows into and out of the lakes. In particular, if too little water is drained or evaporates from the lakes, then flooding may occur and homes and businesses along the shore suffer, if too much water is drained, then large ships cannot travel through the waterways to bring supplies and support the local economy. The main problem is regulating the water levels such that all stakeholders can benefit.
湖泊的水被用于许多目的(捕鱼、娱乐、发电、饮用、航运、动物和鱼类栖息地、建筑、灌溉等)。因此，各种各样的利益相关者都对流入和流出湖泊的水的管理感兴趣。特别是，如果从湖泊中抽干或蒸发的水太少，那么可能发生洪水，沿岸的家庭和企业受到影响，如果抽干的水太多，那么大型船只就无法通过水路运送物资和支持当地经济。主要问题是调节水位，使所有利益相关者都能受益。
The water level in each lake is determined by how much water enters and leaves the lake. These levels are the result of complex interactions among temperature, wind, tides, precipitation, evaporation, bathymetry (the shape of the lake bottom), river flows and runoff, reservoir policies, seasonal cycles, and long-term climate changes. There are two primary control mechanisms within the flow of water in the Great Lakes system - Compensating Works of the Soo Locks at Sault Ste. Marie (three hydropower plants, five navigation locks, and a gated dam at the head of the rapids) and the Moses-Saunders Dam at Cornwall as indicated in the Addendum.
每个湖泊的水位是由进出湖泊的水量决定的。这些水平是温度、风、潮汐、降水、蒸发、测深(湖底形状)、河流流量和径流、水库政策、季节周期和长期气候变化等复杂相互作用的结果。在大湖区的水流中有两种主要的控制机制:苏河水闸补偿工程。玛丽(三个水力发电厂，五个通航船闸和一个位于激流顶端的闸门大坝)和康沃尔的摩西-桑德斯大坝，如附录中所示。
While the two control dams, many channels and canals, and the drainage basin reservoirs may becontrolled by humans, the rates of rain, evaporation, erosion, ice jams, and other water-flow phenomena are beyond human manipulation. The policies of local jurisdictions may have different effects than expected, as can seasonal and environmental changes in the water basin. These changes in turn affect the ecosystem of the area, which impacts the health of the flora and fauna found in and around the lakes and the residents that live in the water basin. Even though the Great Lakes seem to have a regular annual pattern, a variance from normal of two to three feet of water level can dramatically affect some of the stakeholders.
同时有两个控制水坝，许多沟渠和水渠，以及可能的流域水库在人类的控制下，降雨、蒸发、侵蚀、冰塞和其他水流现象的速度超出了人类的控制范围。地方政府的政策可能会产生与预期不同的影响，就像流域的季节和环境变化一样。这些变化反过来又影响了该地区的生态系统，从而影响了湖泊内外动植物的健康以及生活在水盆中的居民。尽管五大湖似乎有一个规律的年度模式，但水位从正常水平的2到3英尺的变化会极大地影响一些利益相关者。
This dynamic network flow problem is “wicked” — exceptionally challenging to solve because of interdependencies, complicated requirements, and inherent uncertainties. For the lake’s problems, we have ever-changing dynamics and the conflicting interests of stakeholders. See Problem D Addendum for Additional Information.
这个动态网络流问题是“邪恶的”——由于相互依赖、复杂的需求和固有的不确定性，解决这个问题非常具有挑战性。对于湖泊问题，我们有不断变化的动态和利益相关者的利益冲突。有关附加信息，请参见问题D附录。
Requirement
The International Joint Commission (IJC) requests support from your company, International network Control Modelers — ICM, to assist with management and models for the control mechanisms (the two dams-Compensating Works and Moses-Saunders Dam as indicated in the Addendum) that directly influence water levels in the Great Lakes flow network. Your ICM supervisor has given your team the lead in developing the model and a management plan to implement the model. Your supervisor indicates there are several considerations that may help to achieve this goal starting with the building of a network model for the Great Lakes and connecting river flows from Lake Superior to the Atlantic Ocean. Some other optional considerations or issues your supervisor mentioned were:
要求
国际联合委员会(IJC)请求贵公司国际网络控制建模师(ICM)提供支持，协助管理和建模直接影响五大湖水流网络水位的控制机制(附录中所示的两座水坝-补偿工程和摩西-桑德斯水坝)。您的ICM主管已经让您的团队在开发模型和实现模型的管理计划方面发挥领导作用。你的导师指出，有几个考虑因素可能有助于实现这一目标，首先是为五大湖建立一个网络模型，并将从苏必利尔湖到大西洋的河流连接起来。你的主管提到的其他一些可选的考虑因素或问题是:
Determination of the optimal water levels of the five Great Lakes at any time of the year, taking into account the various stakeholders’ desires (the costs and benefits could be different for each stakeholder).
确定五大湖在一年中的任何时间的最佳水位，考虑到不同利益相关者的愿望(每个利益相关者的成本和收益可能不同)。
Establishment of algorithms to maintain optimal water levels in the five lakes from inflow and outflow data for the lakes.
根据湖泊的流入和流出数据，建立五湖保持最佳水位的算法。
Understanding of the sensitivity of your control algorithms for the outflow of the two control dams. Given the data for 2017, would your new controls result in satisfactory or better than the actual recorded water levels for the various stakeholders for that year?
了解你的控制算法对两个控制坝流出的敏感性。根据2017年的数据，您的新控制措施是否会让各利益相关者满意或优于当年的实际记录水位?
How sensitive is your algorithm to changes in environmental conditions (e.g., precipitation, winter snowpack, ice jams)?
你的算法对环境条件的变化(例如，降水、冬季积雪、冰塞)有多敏感?
Focus your extensive analysis of ONLY the stakeholders and factors influencing Lake Ontario as there is more recent concern for the management of the water level for this lake.
把你的广泛分析集中在影响安大略湖的利益相关者和因素上，因为最近对安大略湖水位的管理有更多的关注。
The IJC is also interested in what historical data you use to inform your models and establish parameters, as they are curious to compare how your management and control strategies compare to previous models. Provide a one-page memo to IJC leadership communicating the key features of your model to convince them to select your model.
IJC还对您使用什么历史数据来通知您的模型和建立参数感兴趣，因为他们很想比较您的管理和控制策略与以前的模型的比较。向IJC领导提供一页备忘录，说明您的模型的关键特性，以说服他们选择您的模型。
References (in addition to the included background data file):
- Explanation of the IJC’s Efforts to Manage the Great Lakes Basin: National
Research Council; The Royal Society of Canada. (2006). Review of Lake Ontario-St.
Lawrence River Studies. Washington D.C.: National Research Council of the National
Academies. Retrieved from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/11481/review-ofthe-lake-ontario-st-lawrence-river-studies - Description of the Great Lakes Navigation Systems: Great Lakes Seaway Navigation
System. (2023). Retrieved from American Great Lakes Ports Association:
https://www.greatlakesports.org/industry-overview/the-great-lakes-seaway-navigationsystem/#:~:text=Lake%20Erie%20drains%20into%20Lake,in%20elevation%20approxim
ately%20600%20feet
2024 E题
Extreme-weather events are becoming a crisis for property owners and insurers. The world has endured “more than $1 trillion in damages from more than 1,000 extreme-weather events in recent years.”【1】 The insurance industry saw claims for natural disasters in 2022 increase by “115% compared to the 30-year average.”【1】 Conditions are expected to get worse as losses from severe weather-related events are likely to increase due to floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and wildfires. Premiums for insurance coverage are rising quickly, with climate change fueling projected increases of 30-60% by 2040.
极端天气事件正在成为财产所有者和保险公司的危机。近年来，全球已经遭受了“1000多次极端天气事件造成的超过1万亿美元的损失”。【1】2022年，保险业对自然灾害的理赔“比30年平均水平增加了115%”。【1】由于洪水、飓风、旋风、干旱和野火等与恶劣天气有关的事件造成的损失可能会增加，预计情况会变得更糟。保险保费正在迅速上升，预计到2040年气候变化将推动保费增长30-60%。
Property insurance is not only getting more expensive, but also harder to find, as insurance companies change how and where they are willing to underwrite policies. The weather-related occurrences propelling the cost of property insurance premiums look different depending on where you are in the world. Additionally, the insurance protection gap averages 57% worldwide and is increasing.【2】 This highlights the industry’s dilemma- the emerging crisis in profitability for the insurers and in affordability for the property owners.随着保险公司改变承保方式和承保地点，财产保险不仅变得越来越贵，而且更难找到。与天气有关的事件推动了财产保险费的成本，这取决于你在世界上的不同地方。此外，全球保险保障缺口平均为57%，而且还在扩大。【2】 .这凸显了保险业的困境——保险公司的盈利能力和业主的负担能力正在出现危机。
COMAP’s Insurance of Catastrophes Modelers (ICM) are interested in the sustainability of the propertyinsurance industry. As climate change increases the likelihood of more severe weather and natural disasters, ICM wants to determine how best to posture property insurance now such that there is resilience in the system to cover the cost of future claims while also ensuring long-term health of insurance companies. If insurance companies are unwilling to underwrite policies in too many cases, they will go out of business due to too few customers. Conversely, if they underwrite policies that are too risky, they may pay too many claims. Under what conditions should insurance companies underwrite policies? When should they choose to take the risk? Is there anything a property owner could do to influence this decision? Develop a model for insurance companies to determine if they should underwrite policies in an area that has a rising number of extreme weather events. Demonstrate your model using two areas on different continents that experience extreme weather events.
COMAP的巨灾保险建模师(ICM)对财产的可持续性很感兴趣保险行业。随着气候变化增加了更严重的天气和自然灾害的可能性，ICM希望确定如何最好地部署财产保险，使系统具有弹性，以支付未来索赔的成本，同时确保保险公司的长期健康。如果保险公司不愿意在太多的情况下承保保单，他们就会因为客户太少而倒闭。相反，如果他们承保风险太大的保单，他们可能会支付太多的索赔。保险公司应在什么情况下承保保单?他们应该在什么时候选择冒险?业主能做些什么来影响这个决定吗?为保险公司开发一个模型，以确定他们是否应该在极端天气事件数量增加的地区承保保单。使用不同大陆上经历极端天气事件的两个地区来演示您的模型。
As we look to the future, communities and property developers need to be asking themselves how and where to build and grow. As the insurance landscape changes, future real-estate decisions must be made to ensure properties are more resilient and built deliberately, including the viability to offer appropriate services to growing communities and populations. How can your insurance model be adapted to assess where, how, and whether to build on certain sites?
当我们展望未来时，社区和房地产开发商需要问自己如何以及在哪里建设和发展。随着保险业格局的变化，未来的房地产决策必须确保房产更具弹性和精心建造，包括为不断增长的社区和人口提供适当服务的可行性。如何调整您的保险模型以评估在何处、如何以及是否在某些站点上进行建设?
There may be communities where your insurance model recommends against underwriting current or future property insurance policies. This may result in community leaders facing tough decisions about properties with cultural or community significance. For example, the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was moved on the Outer Banks of North Carolina to protect this historic light house along with the local tourism industry centered around it.[3] As a community leader, how could you identify buildings in a community that should be preserved and protected due to their cultural, historical, economic, or community significance? Develop a preservation model for community leaders to use to determine the extent of measures they should take to preserve buildings in their community.
在某些社区，您的保险模式可能会建议不承保当前或未来的财产保险单。这可能会导致社区领导人面临关于具有文化或社区意义的财产的艰难决定。例如，哈特拉斯角灯塔被搬到了北卡罗莱纳州的外滩，以保护这座历史悠久的灯塔以及以它为中心的当地旅游业。[3]作为一个社区的领导者，你如何识别一个社区中由于其文化、历史、经济或社区意义而应该被保存和保护的建筑?为社区领导人制定一个保护模型，以确定他们应该采取哪些措施来保护社区内的建筑物。
Select a historic landmark-not Cape Hatteras Lighthouse-that is in a location that experiences extreme weather events. Apply your insurance and your preservation models to assess the value of this landmark. Compose a one-page letter to the community recommending a plan, timeline, and cost proposal for the future of their treasured landmark considering the insight you have gained from the results of your insurance and preservation models.
选择一个历史地标-不是哈特拉斯角灯塔-在经历极端天气事件的地方。运用你的保险和保护模型来评估这个地标的价值。考虑到您从保险和保护模型的结果中获得的见解，向社区撰写一页纸的信函，推荐他们珍贵地标的未来计划，时间表和成本建议。
Glossary
Insurance Protection Gap: the difference in protection coverage between economic losses brought aboutby natural disasters and the amount of those losses that are covered.
Underwrite: accept liability for, thereby guaranteeing payment in the case of loss or damage.
术语表
保险保障缺口:经济损失所带来的保障范围的差异由自然灾害和这些损失所涵盖的金额。
承保:承担责任，从而保证在发生损失或损坏时付款。
References
[1] Boston Consulting Group. (2023, December 4). An Insurance Risk Framework for Climate Adaptation. Retrieved at: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/an-insurance-risk-framework-forclimate-adaptation
[2] Munich RE. (2022, January 10). Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021. Retrieved at: https://www.munichre.com/en/company/mediarelations/media-information-and-corporate-news/media-information/2022/natural-disaster-losses2021.html
[3] Union of Concerned Scientists. (2016, July 19). Saving an Icon: Moving the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Away from the Shifting Shoreline. Retrieved at: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/movingcape-hatteras-lighthouse-away-shifting-shoreline
2024 F题
Illegal wildlife trade negatively impacts our environment and threatens global biodiversity. It isestimated to involve up to 26.5 billion US dollars per year and is considered to be the fourth largest of all global illegal trades.IYou are to develop a data-driven 5-year project designed to make a notable reduction in illegal wildlife trade. Your goal is to convince a client to carry out your project. To do this, you must select both a client and an appropriate project for that client.
非法野生动物贸易对我们的环境造成负面影响，并威胁到全球生物多样性。它是据估计，每年涉及的金额高达265亿美元，被认为是全球第四大非法贸易。你们将开发一个数据驱动的5年项目，旨在显著减少非法野生动物贸易。你的目标是说服客户执行你的项目。为此，必须为该客户端选择一个客户端和一个适当的项目。
Your work should explore the following sub-questions:
你的工作应该探索以下子问题:
Who is your client? What can that client realistically do? (In other words, your client should have the powers, resources, and interest needed to enact the project you propose.)
谁是你的客户?客户实际能做什么?(换句话说，你的客户应该有权力、资源和兴趣来实施你提出的项目。)
Explain why the project you developed is suitable for this client. What research, from published literature and from your own analyses, supports the selection of your proposed project? Using a data-driven analysis, how will you convince your client that this is a project they should undertake?、
解释为什么你开发的项目适合这个客户。从已发表的文献和你自己的分析中，有哪些研究支持你的项目选择?使用数据驱动的分析，你将如何说服你的客户这是一个他们应该承担的项目?
What additional powers and resources will your client need to carry out the project? (Remember to use assumptions, but also ground your work in reality as much as you are able.)
您的客户需要哪些额外的权力和资源来执行该项目?(记住要使用假设，但也要尽可能地将你的工作建立在现实基础上。)
If the project is carried out what will happen? In other words, what will the measurable impact on illegal wildlife trade be? What analysis did you do to determine this?
如果项目实施了，会发生什么?换句话说，对非法野生动物贸易的可衡量影响是什么?你做了什么分析来确定这个?
How likely is the project to reach the expected goal? Also, based on a contextualized sensitivity analysis, are there conditions or events that may disproportionately aid or harm the project’s ability to reach its goal?
项目达到预期目标的可能性有多大?此外，基于上下文化的敏感性分析，是否存在可能不成比例地帮助或损害项目实现其目标的能力的条件或事件?
While you could limit your approach to illegal wildlife trade, you may also consider illegal wildlife trade as part of a larger complex system. Specifically, you could consider how other global efforts in other domains, e.g., efforts to curtail other forms of trafficking or efforts to reduce climate change coupled with efforts to curtail illegal wildlife trade, may be part of a complex system. This may create synergistic opportunities for unexpected actors in this domain.
虽然你可以限制你对非法野生动物贸易的做法，但你也可以将非法野生动物贸易视为一个更大的复杂系统的一部分。具体来说，你可以考虑其他领域的其他全球努力，例如，减少其他形式的贩运的努力，或减少气候变化的努力，以及减少非法野生动物贸易的努力，如何成为一个复杂系统的一部分。这可能会为该领域中意想不到的参与者创造协同机会。
If you choose to leverage a complexity framework in your solution, be sure to justify your choice by discussing the benefits and drawbacks of this modeling decision.
如果您选择在解决方案中利用复杂性框架，请务必通过讨论此建模决策的优点和缺点来证明您的选择是正确的。
The judges will specifically be looking for creativity in the selection of the client and in the will also be looking for exposition that both (1) establishes strong connections between the clientselection and justification of appropriate modeling processes used throughout the analysis. Theyand the proposed project and (2) draws clear and direct ties between the data analysis and thedesign of the proposed project.
评委们将特别关注客户选择中的创造力，同时也将寻找能够在客户之间建立牢固联系的阐述在整个分析过程中选择和证明适当的建模过程。他们提出的项目和(2)在数据分析和拟建项目的设计。
Glossary
Client: The actor who will be implementing the proposed project. They may be official actors(governmental or quasi-governmental) or unofficial actors (Non-Governmental Organizations).
Illegal Wildlife Trade: smuggling, poaching, and capture or collection of endangered species, protected wildlife, or the derivatives/products of these species
术语表
客户:将执行拟议项目的参与者。他们可能是官方演员(政府或准政府)或非官方行为者(非政府组织)。
非法野生动物贸易:走私、偷猎、捕获或收集濒危物种、受保护野生动物或这些物种的衍生物/产品
References
[1] Wildlife Conservancy Society. (2021). Why Should we Care about Wildlife Trafficking?
Retrieved from https://wildlifetrade.wcs.org/Wildlife-Trade/Why-should-we-care.aspx
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