new jazz music club could be a tremendously profitable enterprise

Jazz music

A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.

Chinese Version:

作者快速得到了一个结论: 在Monroe 建一个jazz music club是有利可图的，依赖于事实: 在Monroe还没有jazz music club，并且jazz 在这个非常的流行，每年夏天的时候都有jazz festival，并且夜间jazz radio 频道也非常的火热。但是这些论证依赖的假设却站不稳脚跟: 1) 新的club 会吸引所有的本地顾客，而不会去nearest jazz club 2) jazz 在本地居民中非常流行 3) jazz fan愿意为jazz 花钱。如果我们仔细审视这些假设，我们会发现没有一个可以有效的支持作者的结论的

首先, 最近的jazz club 在65里外并不意味着消费者会选择近的club 而不去远的club。可能，远的club 比较便宜，所以更加吸引人，or 消费者已经习惯去远的club了，不想改变他们的习惯。在文章中，作者并没有包含任何新club 比之前的club 的吸引人or 有优势的地方去支持自己的观点。事实上，很有可能，消费者就喜欢去远的地方因为更加吸引人的风格or decent 的价格

第二，通过作者的survey，jazz 的确在Monroe 流行；但是游客和 本地人的比例 却没有统计，很有可能Monroe 就是一个旅游景点，大多数人都是来原因的，并不是来attend jazz club的；因此如果使人信服，作者需要统计的是jazz 在本地人中的流行程度，统计出有多少jazz music fan

第三，typical jazz fan愿意每年花很多钱在jazz entertainment 并不代表本地消费者愿意花钱；typical fan愿意每年花1000$ 可能仅仅适用于一些大城市的消费者，Monrone 也许比较穷，无法支持这么大的entertainment 消耗。

因此，为了充分论证作者的观点，作者需要提供更多的具体证据是的自己的结论更加有说服力: 1) 新 club 相比nearest jazz club有哪些非常显著的优势 2) 通过调查，看看参加jazz festival，listening to radio program 的有多少本地人 3) 调查本地的消费能力 4) 统计jazz fan具体的人数

English Version:

The author mentions that nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, the evidence of jazz is extremely popular in Monrone and real jazz fan is willing to spend close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment, therefore he/she draws a quick conclusion: a new jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Unfortunately, underlying this reasoning is unwarranted assumptions: 1) the audiences would be attracted to new jazz club rather than the nearest jazz club 65 miles away. 2) jazz is tremendously popular among local residents. 3) a lot of local jazz fan would be willing to spend money on jazz entertainment.  Close scrutiny of those assumptions, however, reveals none of them lend credible support to the conclusion.

Firstly, nearest jazz club is 65 mails away that does not necessarily indicate that customer would attend the new local jazz club other than “the nearest jazz club”. Perhaps, “the nearest jazz club” is more attractive for local residents because of cheap cost and customers might be willing to change their habits to attend another jazz club even the anther jazz club is closer. In the passage, the author does not contains evidence of the advantages of new jazz club against “the nearest jazz club” to support his/her conclusion. In fact, it is more likely for customers to attend “the nearest jazz club” because its decent cost and attractive style.

Secondly, statistics in the passage show that jazz is tremendously popular in Monroe, but the author does not provide the proportion of local residents compared to of visitors. Monroe is more likely to be a tourist attractions for jazz fan because of several well-known jazz musicians. So over 100, 000 people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival in summer  that is common. To support the conclusion, the author has to provide the statistics about the degree of jazz popularity among local residents. 

Thirdly, it maybe true that real typical jazz fan is delighted to spend close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment, however, that have little indication that customers, here in Monroe, would afford it. Perhaps, people in very very big city could afford it not Monroe, Monroe would be somewhat poor, so customers in Monroe might not spend money on jazz entertainment, in fact, they would feel listening to radio is enough.

Thus, in order to fully support author’s conclusion, the author should provide more specific evidence to make her/his conclusion more sound: 1) list the advantages of new jazz club overweigh “the nearest jazz club” 2) a survey showing the proportion of local residents 3) a survey showing the capacity of consumption of local residents 4) statistics showing the number of real jazz fan.

Sample:

This loan applicant claims that a jazz club in Monroe would be a profitable venture. To support this claim the applicant points out that Monroe has no other jazz clubs. He also cites various other evidence that jazz is popular among Monroe residents. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicant's claim.

First of all, if the demand for a live jazz club in Monroe were as great as the applicant claims, it seems that Monroe would already have one or more such clubs. The fact that the closest jazz club is 65 miles away suggests a lack of interest among Monroe residents in a local jazz club. Since the applicant has not adequately responded to this concern, his claim that the proposed club would be profitable is untenable.

The popularity of Monroe's annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show might appear to lend support to the applicant's claim. However, it is entirely possible that the vast majority of festival attendees are out-of-town visitors. Moreover, the author provides no evidence that radio listeners would be interested in going out to hear live jazz. For that matter, the radio program might actually pose competition for the C-Note club, especially considering that the program airs during the evening.

Nor does the mere fact that several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend significant support to the applicant's claim. It is entirely possible that these musicians perform elsewhere, perhaps at the club located 65 miles away. This would go a long way toward explaining why Monroe does not currently have a jazz club, and it would weaken the applicant's assertion that the C-Note would be profitable.

Finally, the nationwide study showing that the average jazz fan spends $1,000 each year on jazz entertainment would lend support to the applicant's claim only if Monroe residents typify jazz fans nationwide. However, the applicant provides no credible evidence that this is the case.

In conclusion, the loan applicant's argument is not persuasive. To bolster it he must provide clearer evidence that Monroe residents would patronize the C-Note on a regular basis. Such evidence might include the following: statistics showing that a significant number of Monroe residents attend the jazz festival each year; a survey showing that fans of Monroe's jazz radio program would go out to hear live jazz if they had the chance; and assurances from well-known local jazz musicians that they would play at the C-Note if given the opportunity.