Improving statistical inferences 1_1

Tree different statistical inferences approach:

1.The path of Action  (What should I do?)

2.The path of Devotion  (What should I believe?)

3.The path of Knowledge  (What's the Relative evidence?)

Detail: 

1. A rule to govern our behavior in the long run. And this doesn't tell you anything about your single test, so any current test might be either true or false. We don't know but what we know is that in the long run, there's a certain percentage of the time that will be correct. So this is the main goal of the path of action. Making decisions about what you should do.

2. It tries to answer the question what the likelihood is of different hypotheses given the data that you have collected. 

e.g. you flip a coin 10 times. Is it biased? So what is the likelihood that this is a fair where.

We can see that this is not very impressive. The likelihood ratio's supposed to be 1, if there's no difference between different hypothesis, and this is pretty close to 1. 

3. The last option is the path of belief. Now if you see this. do you really believe that the coin in the long run will come up heads 60% of the time? Not, you have previous beliefs about coins, and you have a very strong belief that most coins are fair. The data did not really change your prior beliefs. And this path is known as Bayesian statistics. (which allows you to express evidence in terms of the degrees of belief).