目录
Meaning, Moat, Management, and Margin of Safety.意义、护城河、管理和安全边际。
How to calculate a stock’s intrinsic value如何计算股票的内在价值
Warren Buffett’s writings are essential reading for any investor. He teaches timeless lessons on management and gives a sweeping bird’s-eye view that distils multiple complex business concepts.
沃伦·巴菲特的作品是任何投资者的必读之物。他传授永恒的管理智慧，并提供了对多个复杂商业概念的全面鸟瞰。
But Buffett is scant with the specific steps to apply his method to our investing. Beginner investors learning the fundamentals of value investing need a frog’s-eye view instead — getting into the mud and deep into the details.
但是巴菲特在具体步骤上对如何将他的方法应用于我们的投资上却很少提及。初学者学习价值投资的基本原理需要一种“青蛙视角”——深入细节，深入泥潭。
This is the promise of the book Rule #1 by Phil Town. It’s a must-read for anyone looking to learn the nitty-gritty of finding and evaluating businesses using his simple four-step method of investing.
这是 Phil Town 的《规则#1》一书的承诺。对于想要学习使用他简单的四步投资方法寻找和评估企业的所有人来说，这是一本必读之书。
What is Rule #1? 什么是规则#1？
Town’s investing philosophy can be summed up in a quote from Warren Buffett.
小镇的投资哲学可以用沃伦·巴菲特的一句话来概括。
“There are only two rules of investing: Rule #1: Don’t lose money…and Rule #2: Don’t forget Rule #1.”
投资只有两条规则：规则#1：不要亏损……规则#2：不要忘记规则#1。
This statement captures the main focus of the book: how to take significant risks out of investing by buying a wonderful business at an attractive price.
本声明概括了本书的主要焦点：通过以有吸引力的价格购买一家优秀的公司，如何将投资中的重大风险降至最低。
take significant risks out of investing by buying a wonderful business at an attractive price
通过以具有吸引力的价格购买一家优秀企业，将投资中的重大风险排除在外
This sounds like common sense, but Town makes the following observation.
这听起来像是常识，但 Town 提出了以下观察。
We hunt for the best deals on clothes, food, appliances and more in our everyday life. We love the thrill of snagging items priced well below their actual value. So why don’t we take the same approach when buying stocks?
我们在日常生活中寻找衣服、食品、家电等商品的最好交易。我们喜欢以低于实际价值的价格抢购物品的刺激感。那么，为什么我们在购买股票时不采取同样的方法呢？
If you can keep items in your cart until 11.11 to score huge discounts on Shopee, you can exercise the same patience and wait for the stocks on your shopping list to go on sale.
如果您能在购物车中保留商品直到 11.11 日以获得 Shopee 的大额折扣，您就可以用同样的耐心等待购物清单上的股票打折。
To find a wonderful company at an attractive price, Town outlines a process he calls “the Four Ms”.
寻找一家价格诱人的优秀公司，Town 概述了一个他称之为“四个 M”的过程。
Meaning, Moat, Management, and Margin of Safety.
意义、护城河、管理和安全边际。
In essence, you have to answer four questions before placing the buy order.
本质上，在下单购买之前，你必须回答四个问题。
- Does the business have Meaning to you?
这家企业对你有意义吗？ - Does the business have a wide Moat?
该业务是否有宽阔的护城河？ - Does the business have great Management?
该企业有优秀的管理层吗？ - Does the business have a big Margin of Safety?
该业务是否有较大的安全边际？
Let’s break down each principle.
让我们逐条分析每个原则。
Meaning 意义
It’s important to invest in a business that you find meaningful. Doing so ensures you are likely to have a stronger understanding of the business and think long-term.
投资于你认为有意义的业务很重要。这样做可以确保你更有可能对业务有更深入的了解，并考虑长期发展。
A good test to find if a business has meaning to you is to use the 10-10 rule.
一个好的测试来找出一家企业对你是否有意义是使用 10-10 规则。
If you’re not willing to hold a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.
如果你不愿意持有股票 10 年，那就连想都不要想拥有它 10 分钟。
To be clear, this does not mean you cling to bad investments. It’s simply a rule to force you to think carefully about what you buy.
要清楚，这并不意味着你要坚持不良投资。这只是一个规则，迫使你仔细思考你购买的东西。
Town recommends an exercise to find businesses with meaning to you. Ask yourself three questions:
镇建议一个练习来寻找对你有意义的业务。问自己三个问题：
- What do you love to do, professionally and recreationally?
你喜欢做什么，职业上和休闲时？ - What things do you excel at?
你擅长哪些事情？ - What do you do to make money, or what do you spend money on?
你如何赚钱，或者你花多少钱？
These represent your “Passion”, “Talent”, and “Money”, respectively.
这些分别代表你的“激情”、“才能”和“金钱”。
Next, draw a Venn diagram with three circles with these headings. It should look something like this:
接下来，画一个包含三个圆的维恩图，并标注以下标题。它应该看起来像这样：
Write down the answers for each question. The ones that show up in all three spheres are your sweet spot — they represent businesses that have meaning to you, that you understand best and thus have the biggest edge over other investors.
写下每个问题的答案。在所有三个领域都出现的答案就是你的优势领域——它们代表对你有意义的业务，你最了解的业务，因此你在其他投资者中拥有最大的优势。
Invest in industries where you have first-hand experience and insider knowledge. This can be summed up by the investor Peter Lynch’s principle: Invest in what you know.
投资于您有第一手经验和内部知识的行业。这可以用投资者彼得·林奇的原则来概括：投资你所了解的。
Once you have a list, the next step is to evaluate whether each business has a moat.
一旦你有了清单，下一步就是评估每家企业的护城河。
Moat 护城河
An economic moat is a sustainable competitive advantage that enables a company to protect its profits and market share from competitors.
经济护城河是一种可持续的竞争优势，使公司能够保护其利润和市场占有率免受竞争对手的侵害。
Any company you invest in needs to have a wide moat to ensure they can stay around for the long term.
任何你投资的公司都需要有一个宽广的护城河，以确保它们能够长期存在。
Another advantage of a wide-moat business highly relevant to today’s environment: it can withstand inflation because it can raise prices to cover rising costs.
另一个与当今环境高度相关的宽护城河企业的优势：它能够抵御通货膨胀，因为它可以提价以覆盖不断上升的成本。
Town writes that a company can have five moats:
小镇写道，一家公司可以有五个护城河：
- Brand: a product you’re willing to pay more for because you trust and love it, e.g. Nike
品牌：你愿意为其支付更多费用的产品，因为你信任并喜爱它，例如耐克 - Secret: a business that has a patent or trade secret that makes direct competition illegal or very difficult, e.g. Pfizer
秘密：拥有专利或商业机密，使得直接竞争变得非法或非常困难的企业，例如辉瑞 - Toll: a business with exclusive control of a market — giving it the ability to collect a “toll” from anyone needing that service or product, e.g. Visa
收费：一家对市场拥有独家控制权的公司——使其能够向需要该服务或产品的任何人收取“通行费”，例如 Visa - Switching: a business that’s so much a part of your life that switching isn’t worth the trouble, e.g. Apple
切换：一家如此融入你生活的企业，以至于切换并不值得麻烦，例如苹果 - Price: a business that has economies of scale to price products so low no one can compete, e.g. Amazon
价格：一家具有规模经济的企业，可以将产品定价低至无人能竞争，例如亚马逊
Determining if a business has a moat is subjective. But numbers don’t lie. A business with at least one of these moats will be evident from its financial statements.
确定一家企业是否有护城河是主观的。但数字不会说谎。拥有至少一条这些护城河的企业将从其财务报表中显现出来。
Town picked the five most important metrics to evaluate a business: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), Free Cash Flow, Sales, Earning Per Share (EPS) and Equity.
镇选择了五个最重要的指标来评估一家企业：投资资本回报率（ROIC）、自由现金流、销售额、每股收益（EPS）和股本。
He writes: “A sign of a business with a moat should generate more than 10% annually for the last 10 years for all five metrics.”
他写道：“拥有护城河的企业在过去 10 年中，所有五个指标每年应产生超过 10%的收益。”
Management 管理
Good management can turn an ailing business around; bad management can destroy a dominant company.
良好的管理可以将一家病态的企业扭转过来；糟糕的管理可以摧毁一家主导公司。
That’s why you need to invest in businesses with outstanding leadership. Betting on a good CEO means you can sleep well knowing that an “honest, owner-oriented, and driven person” is working hard to make you money.
这就是为什么你需要投资于具有杰出领导力的企业。押注一位优秀的 CEO 意味着你可以安心入睡，知道有一个“诚实、以所有者为导向、充满动力的人”正在努力为你赚钱。
Red flags are CEOs who draw huge salaries (even when the business is performing poorly), or have poor track records. Conversely, a green flag is a CEO whose majority of their personal net worth is tied up with the business. This ensures their incentives are directly aligned with the long-term interests of shareholders.
红旗是那些即使业务表现不佳也领取巨额薪酬的 CEO，或者有不良记录的 CEO。相反，绿灯是指那些大部分个人净资产与公司业务挂钩的 CEO。这确保了他们的激励措施与股东的长远利益直接一致。
Owner-CEOs are more likely to act with integrity and are more driven. These are inherently subjective qualities that are difficult to assess. But the internet shines a much stronger spotlight on a CEO’s track record than ever before.
股东 CEO 更有可能以诚信行事，并且更有动力。这些本质上是主观的品质，难以评估。但互联网比以往任何时候都更强烈地聚焦在 CEO 的业绩记录上。
At the time of Rule #1’s publication, this was mostly limited to newspapers and magazines. Now, you can access quarterly earning calls and transcripts, podcast interviews, and much more.
在《规则 1》发布时，这主要限于报纸和杂志。现在，您可以访问季度收益电话会议和会议记录、播客访谈等等。
Margin of Safety 安全边际
So far, all three steps help you to find wonderful businesses that have meaning to you, possess a moat, and have good management. But the next step is the most critical — buying the business at an attractive price.
到目前为止，这三个步骤帮助你找到对你有意义的、拥有护城河和良好管理的优秀企业。但下一步是最关键的——以有吸引力的价格购买这家企业。
This brings us to what Town calls “the three most important words in investing”: Margin of Safety. This is the concept of buying a business at a price significantly lower than its intrinsic value. Town recommends a 50% Margin of Safety.
这让我们来到了 Town 所说的“投资中最重要三个词”：安全边际。这是指以显著低于其内在价值的价格购买一家企业的概念。Town 建议采用 50%的安全边际。
With such a big buffer, you can still likely make a great return even if you get many things wrong in your estimate. Or, at the very least, you won’t break Rule #1.
拥有如此大的安全边际，即使你在估计中犯了很多错误，仍然有可能获得巨大的回报。或者至少，你不会违反第一条规则。
How to calculate a stock’s intrinsic value
如何计算股票的内在价值
But how do you determine a business’s true value?
但是，您如何确定一家企业的真实价值呢？
You must figure out what it will be worth 10 years from now. This is almost impossible to predict, but you can make an educated guess by looking at the business’s past performance.
您必须想清楚它 10 年后的价值。这几乎不可能预测，但您可以通过查看该企业的过往业绩来做出一个有根据的猜测。
From there, you make assumptions about its future growth rate, P/E ratio, and your minimum acceptable rate of return (15% per year, in Town’s case). Once you punch in the numbers, you’ll get the true value of the company’s stock. Slash that price in half, and that is your Margin of Safety price.
从那里，你对其未来增长率、市盈率以及你所能接受的最低回报率（在 Town 的情况下为每年 15%）做出假设。一旦你输入数字，你将得到公司股票的真实价值。将这个价格减半，这就是你的安全边际价格。
In other words, this is a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The great thing about the book is it shows you step-by-step how to calculate the figures.
换句话说，这是一种折现现金流（DCF）分析。这本书的伟大之处在于它逐步展示了如何计算这些数字。
His full explanation is out of the scope of this article. But if you want to learn more, I highly recommend watching this fantastic YouTube video, which gives an excellent overview.
他的完整解释超出了本文的范围。但如果你想要了解更多，我强烈推荐观看这个精彩的 YouTube 视频，它提供了一个极好的概述。
Patience is key 耐心是关键
Opportunities to buy wonderful businesses with a 50% Margin of Safety don’t come often. So it’s unlikely the stock will be at your target price immediately after calculating it.
购买具有 50%安全边际的优秀企业的机会并不常见。因此，在计算后，股票不太可能立即达到你的目标价格。
So, you’ll have to put the business on a watchlist for later when it goes on sale. You may have to wait months or even years. Be patient. As we’ve seen in 2022, market sentiments can shift in an instant. Seemingly invincible companies in 2021 saw their valuation crash the next year.
所以，您需要将这家公司加入观察名单，稍后等它上市时再考虑。您可能需要等待几个月甚至几年。要有耐心。正如我们在 2022 年所见，市场情绪可以瞬间转变。2021 年看似不可战胜的公司在第二年见证了其估值暴跌。
To explain this concept, Town introduces the fictional figure, Mr Market, popularised by Benjamin Graham. He serves as a metaphor for the stock market, representing the day-to-day changes in stock prices and the emotions of trading.
为了解释这个概念，汤恩介绍了虚构人物，市场先生，由本杰明·格雷厄姆普及。他作为股市的隐喻，代表着股价的日常变化和交易的情绪。
Mr Market can be volatile and irrational, sometimes offering prices that are too high and at other times offering prices that are too low. The lesson is to take advantage of Mr Market at his most manic-depressive when he’s offering prices way below their intrinsic value.
市场先生可能波动不定且非理性，有时提供过高的价格，有时又提供过低的价格。教训是要在市场先生提供价格远低于其内在价值时，充分利用他的躁郁状态。
And when the time comes, prepare to act boldly.
当时候到来时，准备大胆行动。
Charlie Munger said it best: “The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.”
查理·芒格说得最好：“智者会在世界给他们提供机会时下重注。当他们有优势时，他们会大举下注。其余时间，他们不会。就这么简单。”
The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple
智者在世界给他们机会时重下赌注。当他们有机会时，他们下大赌注。其余时间，他们不赌。就这么简单。
Conclusion 结论
Rule #1 by Phil Town is an excellent introduction to value investing.
第 1 条规则，菲尔·汤恩所著，是价值投资的优秀入门。
Investors can make more informed decisions using the 4M system and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you are a beginner or an experienced investor, Rule #1 is a valuable resource for anyone looking to improve their foundational skills.
投资者可以使用 4M 系统做出更明智的决策，避免常见陷阱。无论你是初学者还是经验丰富的投资者，规则#1 是任何希望提高基础技能的人的有价值资源。
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