中国用tiktok_Tiktok会发生什么？ 中国科技巨头的增长手册有线索

中国用tiktok

By Vinnie Lauria

文尼·劳里亚(Vinnie Lauria)

Donald Trump’s executive orders to block TikTok and WeChat from the U.S. market have set off legal battles and debates over the openness of the internet. But how will these apps’ Chinese parent companies, which have grown rapidly behind a walled garden for many years, maneuver around the bans now that the U.S. government is taking a leaf out of China’s playbook?

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump) 禁止TikTok和微信进入美国市场的行政命令引发了关于互联网开放性的 法律斗争和辩论 。 但是，既然美国政府正在从中国的剧本中撤出一票，这些应用程序的中国母公司(这些公司在围墙花园后面已经Swift成长了很多年)如何绕过禁令呢？

I am an American who’s lived in Asia for a decade now. As a venture capitalist based in Singapore, I’ve learned that major tech firms in these two countries share a common goal — mega-growth — but they come at it from different directions, often with contrasting methods. These tactics can help inform how American bans might play out for TikTok and WeChat and their parent companies, Bytedance and Tencent.

我是一个在亚洲生活了十年的美国人。 作为总部设在新加坡的风险投资家，我了解到这两个国家的大型科技公司有一个共同的目标-巨大的增长-但它们往往通过不同的方法从不同的方向实现目标。 这些策略可以帮助您了解TikTok和WeChat及其母公司Bytedance和Tencent的美国禁令如何发挥作用。

中美科技巨头之间的差异 (How Chinese and American Tech Titans Differ)

In the U.S., many of the big online tech firms gained dominance over the past 25 years by displacing legacy dinosaurs — Netflix vs. Blockbuster, Amazon vs. Borders and Barnes & Noble — or inventing entire categories of technology, like Apple and Google. In China, which was a less developed market, the largest tech companies grew without the need to displace established players. In China, the first-mover advantage was very valuable, followed by who could raise the most money — thus creating the first generation of Chinese tech titans like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent. Meanwhile, in the U.S., companies like Netflix, Amazon, Google, and Apple won through world-class software engineering and user interfaces, out-innovating their competition.

在美国，过去25年中，许多大型在线科技公司通过取代传统的恐龙(Netflix，Blockbuster，Amazon，Borders和Barnes＆Noble)或发明整个技术类别(例如苹果和Google)，赢得了统治地位。 在中国，这是一个欠发达的市场，最大的科技公司成长而无需取代老牌公司。 在中国，先行优势非常宝贵，其次是谁可以筹集最多的资金，从而创造了百度，阿里巴巴和腾讯等第一代中国科技巨头。 同时，在美国，像Netflix，Amazon，Google和Apple这样的公司通过世界一流的软件工程和用户界面获胜，从而在竞争中脱颖而出。

We’ve seen further differences in cultural DNA play out as American and Chinese tech firms competed in other markets. Uber and Amazon pushed their way into Asian countries with product and engineering headquartered back in the U.S. Tencent and Alibaba expanded out of China across nearby parts of Asia with a playbook of minority investments and full acquisitions, similar to a real-estate land grab. Alibaba’s AliPay is known by a dozen different names throughout Asia, such as GCash in the Philippines. Tencent, known for its chat, mobile gaming, and payment apps, invested in Southeast Asian giants like SEA Group and Indonesia’s GoJek.

随着美国和中国科技公司在其他市场上的竞争，我们看到了文化DNA方面的进一步差异。 优步(Uber)和亚马逊(Amazon)将产品和工程总部设在美国，从而进入了亚洲国家。腾讯和阿里巴巴通过少数股权投资和全面收购的剧本，将业务扩展到了亚洲附近的中国地区，这与房地产收购一样。 阿里巴巴的支付宝在整个亚洲有十多个不同的名字，例如菲律宾的GCash。 腾讯以聊天，手机游戏和支付应用程序着称，投资了东南亚巨人，例如SEA Group和印度尼西亚的GoJek。

Unlike American big tech companies, Chinese tech titans tend not to force their products (or their brands) into new markets. They’ve also been more willing than U.S. firms to enter foreign markets via joint ventures. There are dozens of examples of Chinese tech companies launching joint ventures with home-country brands in markets from Indonesia to the Philippines.

与美国大型科技公司不同，中国科技巨头倾向于不强迫其产品(或其品牌)进入新市场。 他们也比美国公司更愿意通过合资企业进入国外市场。 有数十个中国科技公司与本土品牌在印尼到菲律宾市场建立合资企业的例子。

But there’s another big difference between how American and Chinese tech companies have grown. China has been blocking dozens of global services from operating within its borders, including Google, Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter. Even Visa and MasterCard were blocked until recently, which gave rise to AliPay and TenPay. By enjoying a walled garden within China, many Chinese apps and services have grown to a size where they now compete globally — which makes them more of a geopolitical threat to American economic interests.

但是，中美科技公司的成长方式还有另一个很大的不同。 中国一直在阻止数十种全球服务在其境内运营，包括Google，Facebook，YouTube，Instagram和Twitter。 直到最近，甚至Visa和MasterCard都被封锁，从而产生了AliPay和TenPay。 通过在中国境内的围墙花园中享受生活，许多中国应用程序和服务已经发展到可以在全球范围内竞争的规模，这使其对美国经济利益的地缘政治威胁更加明显。

In one sense, Trump’s threat to block Chinese sites like TikTok and WeChat is not a new stance, but a continuation of his positions on trade, immigration, jobs, and his recent war with Huawei. The ban orders are due partly to concerns of exposing personal data on Chinese networks, and partly to concerns of economic competitiveness.

从某种意义上说，特朗普威胁要封锁像TikTok和微信这样的中国网站并不是一种新姿态，而是他在贸易，移民，工作以及最近与华为的战争中的立场的延续。 禁令的部分原因是担心在中国网络上公开个人数据，部分原因是出于经济竞争力的考虑。

However, the current global economic outlook is not rosy. While many online tech firms have prospered during the pandemic, a rise in political tensions is curbing growth for the Chinese titans, as seen last month when India banned TikTok, and now in the U.S. with Trump’s executive orders. Business tensions between the U.S. and China will continue to get worse before they get better.

但是，当前的全球经济前景并不乐观。 尽管许多在线科技公司在大流行期间都繁荣起来，但政治紧张局势的上升正在抑制中国泰坦的增长，正如上个月印度禁止TikTok时所看到的那样，现在在美国已获得特朗普的行政命令。 中美之间的业务紧张关系在变得更好之前将继续恶化。

Chinese internet giants need to prepare for a future with more intricate geopolitics in order to operate globally. And within this context, TikTok and WeChat present themselves as test cases. This is the first time that immensely popular Chinese consumer products — or in the case of TikTok, their Americanized versions — are about to be barred from the world’s most prominent consumer market.

中国互联网巨头需要为更加复杂的地缘政治为未来做好准备，才能在全球开展业务。 在此背景下，TikTok和微信将自己展示为测试用例。 这是首次将极受欢迎的中国消费产品(或TikTok的美国化产品)从世界上最重要的消费市场上禁止出售。

什么样的未来 (What Lies Ahead)

How will the parent companies respond? As the Chinese playbook has shown elsewhere, you can achieve market penetration and growth by sitting behind another player. That is exactly what we’re seeing with TikTok’s rumored sale to Microsoft. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, may happily sell the brand and product, but could still own the IP and monetization models underneath. Or, it could just shift to being a minority shareholder, with the intent to purchase back in the future.

母公司将如何回应？ 正如中国剧本在其他地方所展示的那样，您可以通过坐在另一个播放器后面来实现市场渗透和增长。 这正是传闻中TikTok出售给Microsoft所看到的 。 TikTok的母公司ByteDance可能会愉快地出售品牌和产品，但仍可以拥有其下的IP和货币化模型。 或者，它可能会变成少数股东，以期将来回购。

WeChat is a little more difficult for Tencent to remove itself from, as it’s the king of all super-apps. If WeChat is blocked in the U.S., we might see Tencent do a business development partnership with a second tier chat app in the U.S., like Line. This hypothetical partnership could allow a user of Line to send messages to a WeChat user and vice versa, just as a user of Hotmail can exchange emails with a Gmail user.

腾讯是所有超级应用程序之王，因此微信对于腾讯来说很难摆脱。 如果微信在美国被封锁，我们可能会看到腾讯与美国的第二层聊天应用(例如Line)建立业务发展合作伙伴关系。 这种假设的合作关系可以使Line的用户将消息发送给微信用户，反之亦然，就像Hotmail的用户可以与Gmail用户交换电子邮件一样。

Furthermore, it wouldn’t be far-fetched to imagine Tencent launching a new chat app as a joint venture (of which it would be a minority shareholder) with a company like Amazon. While most other large-cap tech companies like Facebook, Google, and Apple have a social or chat component, Amazon doesn’t. In addition, Amazon and Tencent share a common enemy: Alibaba. We’re all familiar with the Asian proverb: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

此外，想像腾讯与像亚马逊这样的公司作为合资企业推出新的聊天应用程序(这将是它的少数股东)并非难事。 尽管大多数其他大型科技公司(如Facebook，Google和Apple)都具有社交或聊天功能，但Amazon没有。 此外，亚马逊和腾讯有一个共同的敌人：阿里巴巴。 我们都熟悉亚洲谚语： “敌人的敌人是我的朋友。”

The reality is that there are many ways for a Chinese company to operate in the U.S. that would circumvent any short-term blocks — just as non-tech-based U.S. companies operate in China despite restrictions on foreign ownership. Many global corporations skirt these restrictions through creative commercial contracts that still allow revenue sharing and decision-making to sit outside China.

现实情况是，中国公司在美国经营的方式有很多，可以绕开任何短期的障碍，就像非技术型美国公司在中国经营一样，尽管外国所有权受到限制。 许多跨国公司通过创造性的商业合同来规避这些限制，这些合同仍然允许收益共享和决策权位于中国境外。

The tech giants of the United States and China share one core value: growth at any cost, in order to dominate the market. They just have different philosophies on how to get there. With TikTok and WeChat, we’re about to see Chinese business philosophies meet and perhaps merge with those of the U.S. It promises to be a dance with repercussions throughout the tech industry and the global economy.

美国和中国的科技巨头拥有一个核心价值：不惜一切代价实现增长，从而占领市场。 他们只是对到达那里有不同的看法。 借助TikTok和微信，我们将看到中国的商业理念相遇，甚至可能与美国的理念融为一体。它有望在整个科技行业和全球经济中引起共舞。

Vinnie Lauria is a former Silicon Valley entrepreneur turned investor. He is a managing partner at Golden Gate Ventures, a Singapore-based VC fund.

Vinnie Lauria是前硅谷企业家的投资商。 他是新加坡风险投资基金Golden Gate Ventures的管理合伙人。

翻译自: https://medium.com/fast-company/what-will-happen-to-tiktok-the-chinese-tech-giants-growth-playbook-holds-clues-c4c8b1772d69

中国用tiktok