vuca 时代
“People are usually afraid of change because they fear the unknown. But the single greatest constant of history is that everything changes.” ―Yuval Noah Harari in Homo Deus: A History of Tomorrow
人们通常害怕改变，因为他们害怕未知。 但是历史上最大的单一常数就是一切都会改变。” ―《人类历史》中的Yuval Noah Harari ：明天的历史
The future and changes. Two words that can never be disassociated. The constant rate of change sometimes overwhelms and triggers an anxiety for numbers of people. The uncertainty of what might occur in the future also continues to haunt our minds. But, what really causes this? The answer does vary from one person to another, but we can trace it all the way back to where this problem stems from: technological advancement.
未来与变化。 这两个词永远都不能分离。 不断变化的速度有时会淹没并引发对人数的焦虑。 未来可能发生的不确定性也继续困扰着我们。 但是，真正的原因是什么呢？ 答案的确因人而异，但是我们可以一直追溯到这个问题的根源：技术进步。
Entering the 21st century, the advancement of technology is in its super exponential phase. Twenty years ago, we — especially Indonesians—were not even familiar with the word “internet”. Now in 2020, we’re already in a talk about the development of cashless society, Internet of Things integration, and the most controversial one — artificial intelligence or AI.
进入21世纪，技术的发展正处于超指数阶段。 二十年前，我们，尤其是印尼人，甚至还不熟悉“互联网”一词。 现在到2020年，我们已经在谈论无现金社会，物联网集成以及最具争议的人工智能或人工智能的发展。
人工智能如何影响我们？(How does artificial intelligence impact us?)
The development of artificial intelligence is believed to have started as early as the 1950s and has been taking the world by storm in the last decade. In today’s society, its application can be found in broad range of sectors as shown in the figure above. From automotive digital marketing to education to entertainment, we cannot deny that AI is a sort of “boon” for the society. But all of those advancements raise questions about its course in our future. Will it bring humanity to prosperity? Or will it “take over the world from us”?
人工智能的发展早在1950年代就已开始，并且在过去的十年中席卷全球。 如上图所示，在当今社会中，其应用广泛。 从汽车数字营销，教育到娱乐，我们不能否认AI是社会的“福音”。 但是所有这些进步都对我们未来的发展提出了疑问。 它会带给人类繁荣吗？ 还是“从我们手中接管世界”？
To be able to answer those sort of questions, we can put it in the perspective of VUCA, which stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. That way, we can buckle ourselves up for what can possibly come ahead.
为了能够回答这些问题，我们可以将其放在VUCA的角度来看， VUCA代表波动性，不确定性，复杂性和歧义性。 这样，我们可以为可能发生的事情做好准备。
AI的易变状态 (The volatile state of AI)
Just like the growth of technology in general, artificial intelligence is rapidly advancing every second. Ten years ago, I only knew artificial intelligence as a computer-controlled character in a video game, but now it can be found in SIRI, camera facial recognition, self-driving Tesla cars, and much more. It’s fluctuating and ever-changing state will surely provides challenges for our generations to quickly adapt to it.
就像一般技术的增长一样，人工智能正以每秒的速度飞速发展。 十年前，我只知道人工智能是视频游戏中的计算机控制角色，但现在可以在SIRI，相机面部识别，无人驾驶特斯拉汽车等中找到人工智能。 不断变化和变化的状态必将给我们这一代人带来挑战，以使其Swift适应这种状态。
人工智能的模糊和不确定的未来 (The vague and uncertain future of AI)
The future of AI is in the circumstances of what military tropes name it: “fog of war”. We still have limited information about what advantages and disadvantages it brings if we take artificial intelligence research and development even further. Make a wrong move and it would mean a disaster for humanity. From personal data leak to invasion of privacy, yes, AI can really be that dangerous.
AI的未来在于军事比喻所称的“战争迷雾”。 如果我们进一步进行人工智能研究和开发，那么关于它带来的优点和缺点的信息仍然很少。 采取错误的措施，将对人类造成灾难。 是的，从个人数据泄露到侵犯隐私，人工智能真的很危险。
人工智能背后令人难以置信的复杂性 (The mind-blowing complexity behind AI)
In theoretical computer science, AI is basically a mathematical model of human intellect. Its “brain” is made of thousands sets of complex algorithms which are then fed with large arrays of data including certain inputs and corresponding outputs. This complexity alone is enough to make lay people hesitant to learn and comprehend artificial intelligence.
在理论计算机科学中，人工智能基本上是人类智力的数学模型。 它的“大脑”由成千上万套复杂算法组成，然后被馈入包括某些输入和相应输出的大型数据数组。 仅此复杂性就足以使外行人不愿学习和理解人工智能。
AI的双刃剑 (The double-edged sword of AI)
The biggest problem with AI is that it’s very difficult to create frameworks or safe practices that regulate the technology. We’re basically have limited control over their learning development. Hence, we cannot guarantee that they will do more good than harm toward us.
AI的最大问题是，很难建立规范技术的框架或安全实践。 基本上，我们对他们的学习发展控制有限。 因此，我们不能保证他们对我们的伤害大于伤害。
The most notable instance of the dangers of AI is the 2018 Facebook-Cambridge Analytica scandal. After Cambridge Analytica gained Facebook users' personal data, they engage a massive political advertising campaign for 2016 US Presidential Election with help of artificial intelligence to target the Facebook users based on their personal information. We can say that AI has played a role in our democracy and it is something to be concerned about.
AI的最显着实例是2018年Facebook-Cambridge Analytica丑闻。 Cambridge Analytica获得Facebook用户的个人数据后，他们在人工智能的帮助下为2016年美国总统大选进行了大规模的政治广告活动，根据他们的个人信息锁定Facebook用户。 可以说，人工智能在我们的民主制度中发挥了作用，这是值得关注的事情。
我们应该停止开发AI吗？ (Should we stop developing AI?)
No. In fact, there is no point in halting the advancement of AI. Technological development is an inevitable thing, and so is artificial intelligence. So, how do we deal with it? Humans are among the most special, distinctive creatures out of millions species on Earth. We have the ability to adapt to change and survive in dire condition. What we need to do is adjust ourselves to technology.
不。事实上，停止AI的发展毫无意义。 技术发展是必然的事情，人工智能也是如此。 那么，我们如何处理呢？ 人类是地球上数百万个物种中最特殊，最独特的生物之一。 我们有能力适应变化并在严峻的条件下生存。 我们需要做的就是适应技术。
The knowledge and comprehension of technology is obligatory in this 4.0 era. By mastering it, we could possibly collaborate ourselves with AI in doing our job, ultimately making us more effective and efficient. Because AI is such a powerful thing, a government regulation is needed to prevent it falling into the wrong hands.
在这个4.0时代，技术的知识和理解是必须的。 通过掌握它，我们可能可以与AI合作完成工作，最终使我们更加有效。 由于人工智能是如此强大，因此需要政府监管以防止它落入错误之手。
As long as we can adapt to, collaborate with, and regulate artificial intelligence, it would be humanity’s biggest feat in technology.
只要我们能够适应，协作和规范人工智能，它将是人类在技术上的最大壮举。
#OSKMITB20 #DuniaVUCA #TantanganMasaDepan #TerangKembali
＃OSKMITB20 #DuniaVUCA #TantanganMasaDepan #TerangKembali
vuca 时代
1903
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