黑苹果英特尔网卡_苹果转向ARM可能会破坏英特尔

黑苹果英特尔网卡

At the World Wide Developer’s Conference 2020 (WWDC), Apple announced that it would, over a period of two years, be migrating its Mac line of products from Intel-based processors to ARM based ones– with much of the processor design coming from its iPad and iPhone line. This is not an easy move for either Apple or its developers and customers. A change of this scale requires a fundamental rewrite of all hardware and software and does not come cheap. One can simply look at Apple’s 2006 CPU switch from PowerPC to Intel to recognize the level of effort and pain it would take to pull this off. However, this move hints at a much bigger and fundamental disruption coming for Intel than it does for the short-term pain for Apple as it transitions out of Intel’s clutches.

在2020年全球开发者大会(WWDC)上，苹果公司宣布，它将在两年内将其Mac产品线从基于Intel的处理器迁移到基于ARM的产品–其中大部分处理器设计都来自其iPad和iPhone系列。 对于Apple或其开发人员和客户而言，这并非易事。 改变这种规模需要对所有硬件和软件进行根本性的重写，而且价格不菲。 只需看一下苹果2006年从PowerPC到Intel的CPU切换，就可以了解实现这一目标所需要付出的努力和痛苦。 然而，这一举动暗示着，与苹果从英特尔手中脱身而来的短期痛苦相比，英特尔给苹果带来了更大，更根本的破坏。

Apple is by no means Intel’s biggest customer. The company represents just an estimated 5% of the chip makers’ global revenues so a catastrophic drop in financial performance should not be expected any time soon. However, the real threat comes from the power that Apple wields on not just its own ecosystem but also on its neighboring ecosystems. The company is a trail blazer when it comes to speeding up the obsolescence of old standards and establishing new ones. Let us not forget it was Apple that single handedly took down the floppy disks, CD Drives and headphone jacks and was a pioneer in bringing USB-C ports and Solid-state drives to its laptops — only to see them become common place (and a baseline standard) for most windows laptops in the world today. By bringing custom ARM CPUs in to mainstream personal computing, Apple has opened the pandora’s box of disruption for Intel, that has long dominated the PC space.

苹果绝不是英特尔的最大客户。 该公司估计仅占芯片制造商全球收入的5％，因此，短期内财务业绩不会出现灾难性的下降。 但是，真正的威胁来自于Apple不仅对自己的生态系统而且对相邻生态系统的控制权。 在加速淘汰旧标准和建立新标准方面，该公司是开拓者。 让我们不要忘记的是，苹果公司一手拿下了软盘，CD驱动器和耳机插Kong，并率先将USB-C端口和固态驱动器引入其笔记本电脑-只是看到它们变得司空见惯(基线标准)适用于当今世界上大多数Windows笔记本电脑。 通过将定制的ARM CPU的主流个人电脑，苹果开辟了英特尔潘多拉的破坏中，长期以来统治 PC领域。

Unwinding a winner takes all dynamicPlatforms such as operating systems and processors have long been resilient to disruption thanks to a protective phenomenon known as network effects. In simple words, this means a platform becomes increasingly more valuable as more people use it. And since it becomes more valuable, it attracts more people to join it and use it, leading to a seemingly unbreakable virtuous cycle. A good example here is that of the Android OS platform which has long enjoyed the benefits of the said cycle — with millions of applications and users continuously feeding in to each other over the years. It is incredibly difficult to put a dent in the market share of an incumbent platform once the virtuous cycle kicks in, leading to the winner takes all dynamic that we see today in several hi-tech industries.

放开赢家的力量需要所有动态平台，例如操作系统和处理器，长期以来由于受到称为网络效应的保护现象而能够抵抗破坏。 简而言之，这意味着平台会随着越来越多的人使用而变得越来越有价值。 而且由于它变得更有价值，它吸引了更多的人加入并使用它，从而导致了看似坚不可摧的良性循环。 一个很好的例子就是Android OS平台，该平台长期享受着上述周期的好处-多年来，数百万的应用程序和用户不断相互交流。 一旦良性循环开始，要想削弱现有平台的市场份额是非常困难的，导致赢家充分利用我们今天在多个高科技行业看到的一切活力。

Many technology firms believe building that better products is the route to unwinding this winner takes all dynamic. In fact, the ARM based CPUs coming to Macs are better performing and more power efficient at certain tasks than Intel-based ones. Having said that, disruption does not happen thanks to a better product replacing an inferior one in a market place. Far from it. The digital camera, with its lower resolution pictures, easily replaced Kodak’s higher resolution film cameras and lossy internet video streaming has all but broken the technically superior BluRay 4k standard. The same holds true for ARM CPUs, which have been beating Intel’s laptop processors in critical benchmarks since 2018, but have yet to gain any significant traction in the Windows PC space despite best efforts by Microsoft, which has been pushing ARM powered Surface laptops for some time now. So how will Apple succeed where Microsoft has arguably failed?

许多科技公司都认为，打造更好的产品是让这位赢家脱颖而出的途径，这是充满活力的。 实际上，Mac上使用的基于ARM的CPU在某些任务上比基于Intel的CPU具有更好的性能和更高的能源效率。 话虽如此，但由于更好的产品替代了市场上的劣等产品，因此不会发生中断。 离得很远。 数码相机具有较低的分辨率图片，可以轻松替换柯达的高分辨率胶片相机，而且有损互联网视频流几乎打破了技术上优越的BluRay 4k标准。 自2018年以来，ARM CPU一直在关键基准测试中领先于英特尔的笔记本电脑处理器，但尽管Microsoft做出了最大努力，但仍未在Windows PC领域获得任何重大吸引力。现在的时间。 那么，在微软可能失败的地方，苹果将如何成功呢？

Firstly, Apple is rewriting all its popular native applications and introducing a new operating system called Big Sur that supports the new processors — taking full advantage of the new capabilities and architecture. Secondly, the company is planning to release a native application emulator called Rosetta 2 that will allow Intel compatible apps to work relatively hitch free on the new ARM processors — without the need to rewrite them. This is a significant leap forwards as Rosetta 2 allows the entire Mac developer and applications ecosystem to seamlessly switch out. Thirdly, thanks to its control over the hardware that runs its software, Apple has announced it will no longer manufacture any Intel powered Macs by 2023, creating a 100% dedicated going-forwards ARM powered user base. This clarity around standards does wonders for the developer community, which usually struggles to support new standards if it requires rewriting applications for a wide range of incompatible specifications. This stands in stark contrast to Microsoft, which must continue to keep its feet in both the ARM and Intel boats, thanks to its dependence on third party hardware manufacturers who can not be forced to switch standards without a large user base to sell in to. The virtuous cycle, in this case, simply refuses to start.

首先，苹果公司将重写其所有流行的本机应用程序，并推出一个名为Big Sur的新操作系统，该操作系统支持新处理器-充分利用新功能和体系结构。 其次，该公司计划发布一个名为Rosetta 2的本机应用程序仿真器，该仿真器将使与Intel兼容的应用程序在新的ARM处理器上相对自由地运行，而无需重写它们。 这是一个重大的飞跃，因为Rosetta 2允许整个Mac开发人员和应用程序生态系统无缝切换。 第三，得益于对运行其软件的硬件的控制，苹果公司宣布到2023年将不再生产任何基于Intel的Mac，从而建立了100％专门面向 ARM的前驱用户群。 这种围绕标准的清晰度确实使开发人员社区感到惊奇，如果开发人员社区需要为广泛的不兼容规范重写应用程序，则开发人员社区通常会努力支持新标准。 这与微软形成了鲜明的对比，微软必须继续站在ARM和Intel的船上，这要归功于它对第三方硬件制造商的依赖，这些制造商在没有庞大用户群的情况下就不能被迫转换标准。 在这种情况下，良性循环只是拒绝开始。

Merging of ecosystemsApple is making all the right moves to unwind its dependence on Intel and migrate its Mac ecosystem on to a new standard. What is going to disrupt Intel is what Apple plans to do next. The Cupertino based tech firm announced that it will allow iPhone and iPad applications to run seamlessly on the new ARM Mac machines. With Apple’s dominant position in the mobile and tablet space, this ecosystem merger is going to lead to some very interesting results. We have already witnessed the results of the merger of the Chrome and Android ecosystems. Chrome based laptops have gone from a meager single digit share to an impressive 21% laptop market share (and growing) in a handful of years thanks to increased cross compatibility with the Android ecosystem. There is no reason why we should not expect a similar uptick for Macs once the merger happens — dampening sales for non Mac, Intel based machines. Further, once developers start building native apps for the ARM powered Macs (in theory at least) it should be relatively straight forward to port native applications to ARM powered Windows PCs. This increase of performant applications should help boost the popularity of ARM-Windows machines, helping create a powerful virtuous cycle independent of Intel. All of this, coupled with a period of troubled innovation for Intel, means that the walls are tightening around the chip maker.

生态系统的合并苹果正在采取所有正确的措施来消除对英特尔的依赖，并将其Mac生态系统迁移到新的标准。 苹果计划下一步要做的是破坏英特尔。 这家位于库比蒂诺的技术公司宣布，它将允许iPhone和iPad应用程序在新的ARM Mac计算机上无缝运行。 由于苹果在移动和平板电脑领域处于主导地位，这种生态系统的合并将带来一些非常有趣的结果。 我们已经目睹了Chrome和Android生态系统合并的结果。 在过去的几年中，由于与Android生态系统的交叉兼容性增强，基于Chrome的笔记本电脑已经从微薄的个位数份额发展到令人印象深刻的21％笔记本电脑市场份额 (并且正在增长)。 合并发生后，我们没有理由不期望Mac会有类似的增长-抑制非Mac，基于Intel的机器的销售。 此外，一旦开发人员开始为ARM驱动的Mac构建本机应用程序(至少在理论上)，将本机应用程序移植到ARM驱动的Windows PC应该相对简单。 高性能应用程序的增加应有助于促进ARM-Windows计算机的普及，并有助于创建一个独立于英特尔的强大良性循环。 所有这一切，再加上英特尔一段时间的创新陷入困境 ，意味着芯片制造商的围墙越来越紧。

History has shown that disruption usually comes from players that incumbents do not consider to be direct threats — at least in the very start. It is this very blind spot that makes disruptions so challenging to overcome for CEOs, boards, and managers. Intel’s leadership team should take a step back and reassess their strategy and take action to become a part of these newly formed ecosystems — before its too late.

历史表明，破坏通常来自于现有者不认为是直接威胁的参与者，至少从一开始就如此。 正是这个盲点使首席执行官，董事会和经理难以克服颠覆性挑战。 英特尔的领导团队应该退后一步，重新评估其战略，并采取行动，以成为这些新形成的生态系统的一部分-在为时已晚之前。

翻译自: https://medium.com/macoclock/apples-shift-to-arm-can-disrupt-intel-329b57a2e4c9

黑苹果英特尔网卡