Compute Unrestricted MLE
Obtain the unrestricted MLEs by fitting an AR(2) model (with a Gaussian innovation distribution) to the given data. Assume you have presample observations (y-1,y0) = (9.6249,9.6396)
Y = [10.1591; 10.1675; 10.1957; 10.6558; 10.2243; 10.4429;
10.5965; 10.3848; 10.3972; 9.9478; 9.6402; 9.7761;
10.0357; 10.8202; 10.3668; 10.3980; 10.2892; 9.6310;
9.6318; 9.1378; 9.6318; 9.1378];
Y0 = [9.6249; 9.6396];
Mdl = arima(2,0,0);
[EstMdl,V] = estimate(Mdl,Y,'Y0',Y0);
ARIMA(2,0,0) Model (Gaussian Distribution):
Value StandardError TStatistic PValue
_______ _____________ __________ _________
Constant 2.8802 2.5239 1.1412 0.25379
AR{1} 0.60623 0.40372 1.5016 0.1332
AR{2} 0.10631 0.29283 0.36303 0.71658
Variance 0.12386 0.042598 2.9076 0.0036425
When conducting a Wald test, only the unrestricted model needs to be fit. estimate returns the estimated variance-covariance matrix as an optional output.
Compute Jacobian Matrix
Define the restriction function, and calculate its Jacobian matrix.
For comparing an AR(1) model to an AR(2) model, the restriction function is
r(c,ϕ1,ϕ2,σε2)=ϕ2-0=0.
The Jacobian of the restriction function is
[∂r∂c∂r∂ϕ1∂r∂ϕ2∂r∂σε2]=[0010]
Evaluate the restriction function and Jacobian at the unrestricted MLEs.
r = EstMdl.AR{2};
R = [0 0 1 0];
Conduct Wald Test
Conduct a Wald test to compare the restricted AR(1) model against the unrestricted AR(2) model.
[h,p,Wstat,crit] = waldtest(r,R,V)
h = logical
0
p = 0.7166
Wstat = 0.1318
crit = 3.8415
The restricted AR(1) model is not rejected in favor of the AR(2) model (h = 0).