1
用
GARCH
模型预测股票指数波动率
目录
Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2
1.
引言
.
....................................................................................................................................... 3
2.
数据
.
....................................................................................................................................... 6
3.
方法
.
....................................................................................................................................... 7
3.1
.模型的条件平均
.......................................................................................................... 7
3.2.
模型的条件方差
........................................................................................................... 8
3.3
预测方法
.
....................................................................................................................... 9
3.4
业绩预测评价
................................................................................................................ 9
4.
实证结果和讨论
.................................................................................................................. 12
5.
结论
.
..................................................................................................................................... 16
References
.
.............................................................................................................................. 18