【雷达与对抗】【2013】遥测：归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）与作物产量预测

本文为美国伊利诺伊大学香槟分校（作者：XIJIE LV）的硕士论文，共172页。

本文探讨了利用遥感影像及其衍生产品（归一化差异植被指数NDVI）对玉米、大豆产量潜力进行评价和量化的可行性。针对不同层次的空间聚集，建立了固定效应面板和普通最小二乘NDVI回归模型。通过回归分析，确定了作物在生长季节的“绿色”积累与最终产量之间的关系。本文的最终目标是检验NDVI模型能否产生准确、及时的产量预测。由于空间数据的独特性（如全球覆盖率、频繁重复周期等），该模型可以为缺乏气象网络和官方作物产量估计不准确或不存在的发展中国家提供重要价值。因此，为了评估NDVI模型的预测能力，将该模型的样本外预测与基于天气的回归模型（修正汤普森模型）预测以及美国农业部8月、9月和10月的预测进行了比较。

The thesis explored the feasibility ofusing remotely sensed image and its derived products, Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI), to assess and quantify corn and soybean yieldpotential. Fixed-effect panel and ordinary least squares NDVI regression modelswere developed for different level of spatial aggregation. Through theregression analysis, the thesis identified the relationship between theaccumulation of crops’ “greenness” over the growing season and the final cropsyield. The ultimate goal of the thesis is to examine whether the NDVI model canproduce accurate and timely yield forecasts. Due to the unique features of thespatial data (e.g. global coverage, frequent repeat cycle and etc.), the modelcan provide significant value to developing countries where the meteorologicalnetwork is scarce and official crop production estimates are either inaccurateor nonexistent. Therefore, to evaluate the NDIV model’s predictive power, themodel’s out-of-sample forecasts were compared to the predictions of aweather-based regression model (modified Thompson model) as well as August,September, and October USDA estimates.

1 引言
2 数据
3 模型研究
4 经验结果
5 预测评估
6 结论

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