2021美赛MCM\ICM E题

最近发生的事件向我们表明,即使在世界上总体运作良好的部分地区, 我们的全球粮食体系也不稳定。这些不稳定性部分是由于我们目前由庞大的国家和国际食品生产商和分销商组成的全球体系所致。这种食品系统允许相对便宜和有效地生产和分配食品,因此建议该当前模型优先考虑效率和获利能力。
尽管该系统效率很高,但联合国估计全世界仍有 8.21 亿人遭受饥饿[1], 尽管有足够的粮食来养活世界上每个人[2]。粮食不安全的人,无法获得足够的负担得起的营养食品,他们生活在每个大陆,每个国家和每个社区。而且, 即使在富裕国家,也出现了粮食短缺的地区,那里没有足够的食物和营养。此外,当前的食物系统留下了巨大的环境足迹,“造成了 29%的温室气体排放,……造成了 80%的生物多样性丧失,80%的森林砍伐以及 70%的淡水使用。” [3]人口持续增长,而我们却经历了数十年的环境虐待所带来的日益严重的影响,在维持,甚至改善我们的环境健康的同时能够生产更多食物的能力从未如此重要。因此,对我们目前的食物系统进行全面检查似乎是一项合理而有保证的努力。
国际食物管理委员会(ICM)挑战您的团队,以通过模型开发来重新构想我们的食品系统并重新确定其优先级。当 ICM 委员会由您的团队来决定应将这些系统的哪些方面作为建模活动的重点时,您应该提供一个足够健
壮的食品系统模型,以便能够对其进行调整以针对各个级别进行优化效率, 盈利能力,可持续性和/或公平性。
无论您关注全球或本地的范围如何,食物系统都很复杂。您应该考虑的一些问题包括但不限于:
 如果为公平和可持续性优化食品系统会怎样?该系统与当前系统有何不同?这样的系统实施需要多长时间?
 改变粮食系统重点的收益和成本是什么?它们什么时候发生?这些收益和成本在发达国家和发展中国家之间有何不同?

 建立食品系统模型后,将模型应用于至少一个发达国家和一个发展中国家,以支持您的发现。
 讨论模型的可伸缩性(对较大或较小的食品系统)和适应性(对其他区域)。
ICM 委员会是环境科学,营养政策与科学,政府和数学领域的一个跨学科,多元化的小组,期待您的最终报告。
您的 PDF 解决方案总页数不超过 25 个,应包括:
• 一页摘要表。
• 目录。
• 完整的解决方案。
• 引用列表。

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Bad climate change may greatly increase the fragility of the country. How to evaluate the impact of climate change and mitigate the impact of climate change has become an urgent problem. With regard to task one, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is established to get the country's fragility. First of all, we selected 4 climate factors as input indicators and 5 output indicators. Then, we use the entropy method to determine the weight and then the national vulnerability is divided. At the same time, we get the conclusion that temperature affects GDP and the times of armed conflict directly and affects the fragility indirectly. In view of task two, we choose Somalia as an object of study. First, all the indexes are divided into 5 levels by the method of cluster analysis. Second, we select 10 countries including Somalia, to solve the decision unit matrix. Then, using the model of the problem one, it is found that the increase in temperature and rainfall will cause the national vulnerability to rise and decrease, respectively. Finally, we assign 4 climate indicators to 0 of the decision units, and draw the conclusion that national vulnerability will be reduced without the impact of climate factors. When it comes to task three, we use the rough set theory to reduce the output index to the number of armed conflicts. Then, we use the BP neural network model to predict the conclusion: There is a significant increase in fragility in cases of much more armed conflict and abnormal temperature. When the average annual armed conflict is certain, the national vulnerability index will face an increasing turning point at the temperature of 10.01 and the rainfall of 1823mm. As to task four, three policies on energy reduction and emission reduction issued by the government have been selected, and a model of carbon cycle is established. Taking China as an example, we calculate the extent of the change of the average temperature by reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from the state, and calculate the change of the national vulnerability through the change of temperature. We conclude that when the temperature drops 1.9 degrees, the national vulnerability decreases by 0.1593 and the cost is 20.3 billion $. Last but not least, due to the relative accuracy of the DEA model, the urban fragile performance is accurately predicted while the continent is not. In this paper, the TOPSIS model of distance entropy of three parameter interval number is used to modify the decision matrix of the DEA model. By increasing the upper and lower bounds of the interval, the value of the decision unit is more accurate, and then the weight of the index is modified based on the schedule. When we use the North American continent for test, the error was about 2.9%。 主要解决国家脆弱性的问,欢迎下载。

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